** Next updated "Buresh Blog" will be Mon., 03/04.......
We're in for a cold weekend with a light inland (I-95 & west) freeze early Sun...a light to moderate inland (west of Intracoastal) freeze/frost early Mon.....& a light inland freeze west of I-95 early Tue.
The avg. last freeze for JIA is Feb. 26th. In other words, 50% of the time the last freeze will be before Feb. 26th....50% of the time after Feb. 26th. It'll be the latter for Jax this year.
Some local t.v. stations apparently have a 10% chance of frozen precip. this weekend. Hmmm....there's a 10% chance you'll get sunburned this weekend....that you'll trip & fall....that a bird will "drop" on your head. I guess with that kind of forecast, there's a 1% chance the prediction will be accurate & helpful to the consumer....& a 90% chance of being right.....one way or the other. The bottom line (weather story) Sat.-Mon. is the cold & potential for late season freeze not a bit of sleet that will never accumulate nor cause any travel problems. It's a classic cop-out forecast. Get lucky....they can always say they "hit it"....miss it, & they can say "there was only a 10% chance" - ugh!
Speaking of hyperbole....check out the column by Terry Dickson in the T-U "What's in a Name. A brewing storm" - click ** here **. I wrote about this TWC phenomenon when it started last year. It's an attempt to get attention & is confusing for the public. Bryan Norcross has sold out as far as I'm concerned - a forecasting "specialist" at its best.
We do have an interesting, energetic, fast-moving storm system that will move into the Southeast U.S. by the middle of next week. Low pressure will develop just north of Jax late Tue.-Wed. & quickly intensify as it moves east/northeast into the Atlantic. A band of showers & maybe an isolated t'storm will move across the First Coast Tue. night into Wed. As the storm deepens as it moves away, a strong north wind on the backside will yet again bring a significant temp. drop to the local area. This storm has the potential to drop snow deep into the south -- Georgia & the Carolina's.
So we turn the calendar to March. Below are the averages at JIA:
Earth Gauge: Smart About Septics
You probably know that failing to maintain your septic tank could cost you thousands of dollars in repairs – just ask Jack and Greg from “Meet the Parents.” But did you know that excess nitrogen, phosphorus and other toxins from leaky septic tanks can be washed into our waterways and oceans, where they can sicken and even kill fish, shellfish and other animals? Failing septic systems leach nitrogen into your backyard soil – and that nitrogen can reach groundwater or surface waters. When these nutrients reach larger bodies of water, they spawn unpleasant algal blooms that decompose and deplete the dissolved oxygen that aquatic animals need to survive. Some overgrowths of cyanobacteria – blue-green algae – can create toxins that are harmful to plants, animals and even humans if we ingest contaminated shellfish or swim in polluted waters.
Viewer Tip: Since faulty septic tanks can contribute nutrient pollution that reaches our waterways, it’s important to keep them properly maintained. Following proper guidelines will help prevent expensive repairs and keep the environment clean. Here are some helpful tips for keeping your septic tank in check:
• Keep your septic system maintained. For typical septic systems, experts recommend a professional inspection every three years and a pump-out every three to five years. Some systems may require more frequent maintenance. Most counties require specific cleaning and inspections every three to five years. Check your county website to make sure that you are meeting these guidelines.
• Use your water more efficiently by installing water-efficient faucets, showerheads, toilets and household appliances.
• Care for the “drainfield” by planting only grass above it – tree roots can dislodge the plumbing. Never drive or park your vehicle over the drainfield.
(Sources: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “A Homeowner’s Guide to Septic Systems”; World Resources Institute, “Sources of Nutrient Pollution”; Chesapeake Bay Program Phase 4.3 Watershed Model)
Climate Fact: Two Tales of American Snowfall
Link -- ** here **.
Two divergent stories are beginning to emerge about America’s snowfall. While one study showed that American snowfall might decline in the future, another found that the biggest snow-producers – extreme snowstorms – have increased. In fact, there have been twice as many extreme snowstorms in the past half century as there were in the preceding one. These findings seem to contradict one another, so how can they both be right? The answer boils down to snow’s ingredients – water vapor and cold temperatures – and how our climate system influences them. Our planet’s rising thermostat has enabled the atmosphere to hold more water vapor, or “storm fuel”, and storms with exceptionally heavy precipitation have become more common as a result. When the air is cold enough, this precipitation falls as snow, which may explain why scientists have seen an increase of powerful snowstorms. However, a higher planetary temperature makes it harder for that precipitation to fall as snow, so a greater percentage of it falls as rain rather than snow. This explains why average snowfall can decrease even as heavy snowstorms become more common.
(Sources: Kapnick, S. and T. Delworth, 2013. “Controls of Global Snow Under a Changed Climate.” Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-05528.1, in press; Kunkel, K.E. et al. 2012, “Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-02262.1, in press.)
Climate in the News: Grow, Rick. "Historic U.S. Drought Will Continue into Spring and Summer, Experts Say" - Capital Weather Gang, The Washington Post, February 22, 2013 - The U.S. Drought Monitor shows nearly 56 percent of the contiguous U.S. in drought - the highest value that has ever been recorded for February (the index dates back to 2000). Some improvement came with recent snowstorms in the Midwest, but many areas still have precipitation shortfalls.