First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 10:04 PM on 4/24, issued at 10:04 PM Blackshear, GA | Bristol, GA | Mershon, GA | Millwood, GA

Arlington Tornado... "HUGO" Hurricane Model... Dropsonde into a Hurricane... "Earth Gauge": Water Woes, Wildfire Smoke, Moose

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Updated: 8/02/2013 9:19 pm

The "Buresh Blog" is taking a week off(!) returning Mon., Aug. 12th.  But "Talking the Tropics With Mike" is always working during the hurricane season -- click ** here **.   Download our handy dandy First Alert Weather iPad App ** here ** for FREE.

The Jax N.W.S. completed their survey of the Arlington EF-2 tornado.  Info. is below + click ** here ** for an excellent web discussion that includes doppler radar imagery & photos.  A fly-through of the waterspout & tornado track can be found ** here ** on my Facebook fan page.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
241 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

...STORM SURVEY FOR EAST ARLINGTON EF2 TORNADO COMPLETED...

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BETWEEN 415 AND 430 PM ON AUGUST 1, 2013...A TORNADO WENT THROUGH THE GREATER EAST ARLINGTON AREA OF JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA. THE NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM CONCLUDED THAT EF2
TORNADO OF 115 MPH WINDS BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN THE VICINITY OF MONUMENT ROAD AND DERRINGER ROAD IN AND AROUND THE SHADOWOOD APARTMENTS BY WILLOWWOOD DRIVE. THIS IS WHERE THE STORM WAS IT GREATEST WIDTH OF 135 YARDS.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED ON AN INTERMITTENT PATH ANOTHER 2.50 MILES ACROSS THE GENERAL EAST ARLINGTON AREA MAINLY AS AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 105 MPH IN A VERY CONFINED PATH. GENERALLY THE WIDTH
WAS ABOUT 100 YARDS AS IT MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE INTERSECTION OF MONUMENT ROAD TO OAK WATER DRIVE. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF CEDAR SWAMP THEN INTO THE MONUMENT LANDING NEIGHBORHOOD NEAR THE CROSS-SECTION OF RUSHCREEK DRIVE AND RUNNING RIVER ROAD. THE TORNADO THEN MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS MCCORMICK ROAD MOVING TOWARD ROCHFORD LANE
INTERSECTING WITH BRIDGENORTH COURT AND ROCHFORD COURT. THE STORM CONTINUED TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE COBBLESTONE NEIGHBORHOOD TOWARD THE INTERSECTION OF MT. PLEASANT ROAD AND HUNTERWOOD ROAD AND THEN INTO THE SPANISH POINT NEIGHBORHOOD ENDING AT THE INTERSECTION OF IVYIGAIL DRIVE AND TOMAKA ROAD.

THE START LOCATION OF THE TORNADO WAS 30.3520 NORTH AND 81.5124 WEST.  THE APPROXIMATE END LOCATION OF THE TORNADO WAS 30.3666 NORTH AND 81.4743 WEST.  THE STORM DAMAGED AT LEAST 15 TO 20 BUILDINGS IN
THE EAST ARLINGTON AREA WITH ONE PERSON TREATED FOR MINOR INJURIES.

Coastal Carolina University scientists announce new hurricane outlook model
Hurricane Genesis and Outlook (HUGO) Project offers landfall prediction
      CONWAY, S.C.  – A new hurricane outlook model system was unveiled today by scientists at Coastal Carolina University (CCU). The new model, called the Hurricane Genesis and Outlook (HUGO) Project, goes a step further than most other hurricane prediction instruments in that it offers landfall probability information. In addition to the seasonal outlook, this model system will predict the track and intensity of any incoming hurricane five days away from landfall.
      The HUGO hurricane seasonal outlook model is based on calculations of 22 climatological factors encompassing oceanic, atmospheric and shoreline activity. The model also considers detailed statistical data from previous Atlantic hurricanes going back to 1950, a methodology that has produced highly accurate track predictions in hindcasting tests conducted by the team at CCU.
      The HUGO model offers outlooks on both the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast. The probable number of landfalls is given in order of decreasing likelihood. According to the latest prediction, for both the East Coast and Gulf the most likely scenario for 2013 is 1 hurricane landfall, with 2 and 0 landfalls next in probability. (See attachment for more details.)
      The new model was developed by a group of climatological scholars of international standing led by Len Pietrafesa, former chair of the National Hurricane Center External Advisory Panel and now a member of the faculty of CCU’s School of Coastal & Marine Systems Science. Other members of the CCU team are Shaowu Bao, a computational, deterministic numerical modeler specializing in meteorology and oceanography; Tingzhunag Yan, a meteorological oceanographer with a background in statistical modeling of climate and weather systems; and Paul Gayes, director of the School of Coastal & Marine Systems Science.
      Because the HUGO model system will provide specific data on probable storm surge and inundation as a hurricane approaches, including time, location and statistical representations of expected water depth along the coastline, it is expected to have special relevance for emergency management officials in their logistical planning in the event of evacuations.

Click ** here ** for more info on the HUGO project.  I'll be testing this model as we get deeper into the hurricane season.

From NASA:
Dropsondes provide insight into hurricane strength by monitoring winds and their direction. They also measure temperature, pressure, and humidity in the atmosphere. Here, (in the video) physicist Gary Wick (NOAA) describes the Dropsonde System on board NASA's Global Hawk aircraft (and describes it as very much like a coke-machine, or soda dispenser).
For a short video on Global Hawsk, click ** here **.... click ** here ** to go the NASA web page dedicated to the project.

Earth Gauge: Summer Water Woes
As summer temperatures rise, so does the amount of water we use outside. During summer, the average family can use 1,000 gallons of water in a day – some even use up to 3,000 gallons. You would have to leave a garden hose running continuously for almost eight hours to use 3,000 gallons of water!
Viewer Tip: Whether your yard is large or small, there are easy ways to save water this summer.
• Don’t over-water. How do you know if your lawn is thirsty? Step on it! If the grass springs back, it doesn’t need water.  If your footprint lingers, it’s time for a drink.
• Water at the right time. The cooler early morning or evening hours are the best times to water your lawn.
• Let it grow. Leave grass longer in the summer to shade roots, reduce water evaporation and reduce weed growth.
• Make necessary repairs. Just one broken sprinkler head can waste up to 25,000 gallons of water over an irrigation season – costing 90 dollars or more on your water bill.
• Clean up wisely. Use a broom to sweep driveways, patios and sidewalks, instead of hosing them off.

(Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. “When It’s Hot.”)

________________________________________

Climate Fact: How Far Can Wildfire Smoke Travel? Implications for Air Quality and Climate

Did you know that smoke from Canadian wildfires can travel over 4,000 miles to Europe? People in Houston, Texas breathe Alaskan wildfire pollutants that traveled over 3,000 miles. Not only has climate change increased the frequency and intensity of wildfires, but burning areas produce pollutants with transcontinental effects on air quality and climate. Wildfires occurring in different states or continents can affect your area. To date in 2013, 29,594 wildfires in the United States have burned more than 2.1 million acres. Wildfires produce trace gases such as carbon dioxide and ozone, and aerosol particles – solids or liquid droplets in a gas; black carbon and smoke are the two main types. Wildfire pollution has a high impact:
• Smoke can cause health problems, especially for people with chronic diseases.
• Increases in greenhouse gases and aerosol particles modify solar radiation. Aerosols reflect sunlight back into space and can absorb radiation. Greenhouse gases absorb radiation, increasing temperatures.
• Deposits of black carbon on ice and snow surfaces reduce their ability to reflect sunlight, producing ice melting.
• Changes in vegetation cover lead to lower surface reflectivity, contributing to warming conditions.

Since aerosols reflect sunlight, they lower temperatures and reduce water evaporation, suppressing cloud formation and precipitation. This slows the water cycle and maintains smoky and rainless conditions. Aerosols also reduce the ability of water particles to condense into water drops. Water particles are then transported by upward air currents into high and supercool atmospheric regions they wouldn’t normally reach, resulting in intense ice precipitation, hail, lightning and violent storms.

(Source: Langmann, B., B. Duncan, C. Textor, J. Trentmann, G.R. van der Werf. 2009. Vegetation Fire Emissions and their Impact on Air Pollution and Climate. Atmospheric Environment, 43:107-116  and  M.O. Andreae, D. Rosenfeld, P. Artaxo, A.A. Costa, G. P. Frank, K.M. Longo, M.A. F. Silva-Dias. 2004. Smoking Rain Clouds over the Amazon. Science, 303:1337-1342 and National Fire Information Center. “National Preparedness”. Online posting, 23 July, 2013. Accessed online 23 July 2013 and Environmental Protection Agency. “Overview of Greenhouse Gases. Online posting. Accessed online 23 July 2013.)

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Climate in the News: “Climate change, ticks claiming moose in New Hampshire” – Concord Monitor, July 28, 2013  –  
Climate change – by way of winter ticks and other parasites – is threatening moose populations and impacting hunting seasons.


See ya' soon!.........
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