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Cool But Nice Weekend..."Sandy" One Year Ago... Tropics Telleconnection... Jags in London

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Updated: 10/25/2013 8:10 am

Stellar autumn weather through the weekend - enjoy! Nights will be cool as temps. dip into the 40s inland, 50s near the St. Johns River, intracoastal & beaches. Highs will only be 70-75. Sun Fri.-Sat. will fade Sunday as an upper level disturbance bring high & mid level clouds to the area. Avg. temps. are a high in the upper 70s & a low in the mid to upper 50s, so we're below avg. but far from records for the date.

A warming trend next week will send temps. back to 80+ by at least midweek. I don't see much chance for rain until perhaps late next week.

We're approaching the one year mark since "Sandy" made landfall on the New Jersey shore. One year ago (Oct. 24th), "Sandy" became a hurricane in the Caribbean & went on to hit Jamaica as a Cat. 1 then SE Cuba as a Cat. 3 before slowly weakening as the storm turned north through the Bahamas. The storm reached Jacksonville's latitude about midday Oct. 27th but was hundreds of miles to the east. There were rip currents & a moderately strong onshore flow but no rain [from "Sandy" - despite dire forecasts from some media outlets] for the First Coast. It was just 2 days later when the extratropical storm slammed the mid Atlantic.

"Sandy" produced a historical storm surge on the coast of N.Y. & Jersey while generating heavy snow far inland.  The 72 U.S. deaths was the greatest death toll from a landfalling named storm -- outside of the Southern U.S. -- since "Agnes" in 1972.  Click ** here ** for a NASA summary... ** here ** for a NHC summary.

As for the tropics now....there are no areas of immediate concern as the last advisory on "Lorenzo" in the Central Atlantic was issued Thu. The area to watch in the next week or two is the Caribbean.

Sometimes meteorologists can use "telleconnections" (in this case over the W. Pacific) to try to come up with a general long range forecast for potential tropical development as well as possible whole sale changes in the upper level weather pattern over the U.S.  

* "Francisco" is recurving south of Japan & will move east of Japan as the storm continues to weaken.  No major impact is anticipated for the main island of Japan.

* "Lekima" is a major typhoon to the east of "Francisco" & will recurve farther to the east staying well east of Japan.

"Raymond" in the E. Pacific off the coast of Mexico is gradually weakening. Heavy rain has caused flooding in & near Acapulco but conditions will slowly improve as "Raymond" begins to move west away from Mexico.

The telleconnection indicates the potential for tropical development in or near the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic within the next couple weeks though forecast models have generally lacked a consistent signal.  But the GFS model has started to fairly consistently show the development of a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean late in the month to -- more frequently now -- early Nov. but with a wide range of intensity & location (not surprising so far in advance).  Pretty consistent significant troughing will eventually evolve over the Central or Eastern U.S. which could be a key to when/where & how strong any tropical disturbance might be in addition where such a development might track.  However, the developments (typhoons) over the W. Pacific signify a likely buckling of the jet stream over the E. Pacific & U.S. next week possibly leading to the the trough shifting back to the Western &/or Central U.S. by Halloween & beyond.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm.  I would be surprised if tropical cyclone genesis did not occur in the Caribbean between Halloween & the 10th or so of Nov.

Global tropical acitivity:

"Raymond" in the E. Pacific now moving west away from the Mexico coast:


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The Jags' game Sunday will be damp & breezy as a strong storm system approaches the UK from the Atlantic.  Temps. will be in the mid to upper 50s (14-15 degrees Celsius) with W/SW winds 15-25 mph & gusty along with occasional light rain & showers.  The storm will become more intense overnight Sunday into Monday as the Jags' contingent tries to fly out of London.  For the UK Met Office, click ** here **.... radar imagery below courtesy "WeatherOnline".

Check out Action News staff photos from London... & WOKV photos too.

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