First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 10:03 PM on 4/23, issued at 10:03 PM Fort White, FL | Lake City, FL | Lulu, FL

Cool Temps. Will Turn Hotter... March/April Weather Summary... From Snow to 100+(!)... E. Pacific Hurricane Season Could Be Active Early

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Updated: 5/14/2013 11:13 pm

JIA did indeed easily surpass the record low early Tue. dropping to 47 degrees.  The old record was 51 degrees in 1982.  Even more telling is that 47 is just 2 degrees from all-time May record of 45 degrees set on the 6th in 1973 & on the 8th in 1992.  Though not as chilly, temps. will again challenge record lows early Wed.  The record at JIA is 52, & that's about where we'll end up.  The Jax N.W.S.  has provided the list below of area lows early Tue.:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1010 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

...TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES...

.LOCATION...                                 TIME               LOW

.FLORIDA...
.ALACHUA COUNTY...
5 SSE BROOKER (144 FT)(APRSWXNET)          715 AM MAY 14        42 F
6 SSW HIGH SPRINGS (72 FT)(APRSWXNET)      555 AM MAY 14        44 F
GAINESVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT (ASOS)        753 AM MAY 14        45 F
5 WNW UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA (AWS)          704 AM MAY 14        45 F
ARCHER (74 FT)(AWS)                        704 AM MAY 14        45 F
ALACHUA FAWN (149 FT)(UCOOP)               700 AM MAY 14        45 F
7 S ALACHUA (99 FT)(AWS)                   619 AM MAY 14        45 F
2 ESE HIGH SPRINGS (99 FT)(AWS)            704 AM MAY 14        46 F
2 WSW UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA (AWS)          649 AM MAY 14        46 F
2 WSW NEWNANS LAKE (149 FT)(AWS)           714 AM MAY 14        47 F
3 WNW ALACHUA (107 FT)(AWS)                654 AM MAY 14        48 F
3 NW UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA (APRSWXNET)     650 AM MAY 14        48 F
3 W NEWNANS LAKE (152 FT)(AWS)             639 AM MAY 14        49 F
5 WSW UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA (APRSWXNET)    643 AM MAY 14        49 F

.BAKER COUNTY...
OLUSTEE RAWS (175 FT)(GOES)                604 AM MAY 14        42 F
EDDY TOWER RAWS (131 FT)(GOES)             604 AM MAY 14        44 F
2 S MACCLENNY (152 FT)(APRSWXNET)          620 AM MAY 14        45 F
2 S MACCLENNY (152 FT)(APRSWXNET)          650 AM MAY 14        45 F
MACCLENNY (49 FT)(FL-MESO)                 645 AM MAY 14        45 F

.BRADFORD COUNTY...
5 NNW KEYSTONE HEIGHTS (196 FT)(AWOS)      715 AM MAY 14        50 F
LAKE BUTLER (135 FT)(AWS)                  544 AM MAY 14        54 F

.CLAY COUNTY...
2 WSW DOCTORS INLET (68 FT)(APRSWXNET)     640 AM MAY 14        44 F
3 W DOCTORS INLET (29 FT)(APRSWXNET)       643 AM MAY 14        47 F
8 N FLORAHOME (131 FT)(APRSWXNET)          709 AM MAY 14        47 F
LAKESIDE (80 FT)(APRSWXNET)                655 AM MAY 14        49 F
3 ESE DOCTORS INLET (3 FT)(APRSWXNET)      618 AM MAY 14        54 F
1 WSW ORANGE PARK (35 FT)(APRSWXNET)       623 AM MAY 14        54 F
ORANGE PARK (7 FT)(APRSWXNET)              717 AM MAY 14        54 F

.COLUMBIA COUNTY...
6 SSE WELLBORN (111 FT)(APRSWXNET)         715 AM MAY 14        45 F

.DUVAL COUNTY...
6 WSW JACKSONVILLE HEIGH (82 FT)(AWOS)     650 AM MAY 14        43 F
6 WNW JACKSONVILLE HEIGH (APRSWXNET)       642 AM MAY 14        46 F
JACKSONVILLE, FL (31 FT)(ASOS)             756 AM MAY 14        47 F
5 NNE MANDARIN (29 FT)(APRSWXNET)          646 AM MAY 14        48 F
2 SW SAN PABLO (20 FT)(APRSWXNET)          621 AM MAY 14        49 F
4 ENE MANDARIN (24 FT)(APRSWXNET)          621 AM MAY 14        49 F
2 E NORMANDY (12 FT)(APRSWXNET)            643 AM MAY 14        52 F
1 E NORMANDY (32 FT)(APRSWXNET)            659 AM MAY 14        52 F
1 SSE ORTEGA (13 FT)(APRSWXNET)            648 AM MAY 14        52 F
2 E NORMANDY (12 FT)(AWX)                  740 AM MAY 14        52 F
CRAIG MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (ASOS)             753 AM MAY 14        53 F
1 S MAYPORT (19 FT)(APRSWXNET)             443 AM MAY 14        54 F
FORT CAROLINE (3 FT)(APRSWXNET)            534 AM MAY 14        54 F
1 ESE JACKSONVILLE (39 FT)(AWS)            649 AM MAY 14        54 F
2 SSE ORTEGA (65 FT)(APRSWXNET)            516 AM MAY 14        55 F
FORT CAROLINE (3 FT)(APRSCSVPARSE)         647 AM MAY 14        56 F
3 SE ORTEGA (22 FT)(ASOS)                  653 AM MAY 14        57 F
2 NNW MAYPORT (35 FT)(WXFLOW)              733 AM MAY 14        57 F
MAYPORT NAVSTA (17 FT)(ASOS)               752 AM MAY 14        57 F
2 WSW ARLINGTON (30 FT)(WXFLOW)            700 AM MAY 14        59 F

.FLAGLER COUNTY...
PALM COAST (3 FT)(APRSWXNET)               648 AM MAY 14        48 F
3 N BUNNELL (7 FT)(APRSWXNET)              653 AM MAY 14        49 F
1 W PALM COAST (7 FT)(APRSWXNET)           659 AM MAY 14        51 F
2 W PALM COAST (22 FT)(APRSWXNET)          717 AM MAY 14        54 F
FLAGLER COUNTY AIRPORT (33 FT)(AWOS)       315 AM MAY 14        54 F
2 NNW FLAGLER BEACH (6 FT)(APRSWXNET)      716 AM MAY 14        58 F

.GILCHRIST COUNTY...
6 WNW NEWBERRY (79 FT)(APRSWXNET)          700 AM MAY 14        44 F

.MARION COUNTY...
3 WNW OCKLAWAHA (60 FT)(APRSWXNET)         647 AM MAY 14        44 F
OCAL INTL AP - JIM TAYLOR FLD (AWOS)       555 AM MAY 14        46 F
CITRA 4W (54 FT)(UCOOP)                    700 AM MAY 14        46 F
3 E RAINBOW LAKES ESTA (APRSWXNET)         713 AM MAY 14        47 F
3 ESE OCALA AIRPORT (72 FT)(APRSWXNET)     717 AM MAY 14        50 F
5 NW SALT SPRINGS (128 FT)(RAWS)          1204 AM MAY 14        53 F
OKLAWAHA FAWN (81 FT)(UCOOP)               700 AM MAY 14        55 F

.NASSAU COUNTY...
3 NE YULEE (29 FT)(APRSWXNET)              627 AM MAY 14        48 F
1 ESE HILLIARD (59 FT)(AWS)                619 AM MAY 14        49 F
4 ESE YULEE (23 FT)(AWS)                   459 AM MAY 14        52 F
FERNANDINA BEACH MUNICIPAL AIRPORT         615 AM MAY 14        55 F
1 SSE AMELIA CITY (29 FT)(AWS)             619 AM MAY 14        55 F
1 NW FERNANDINA BEACH (NOS-NWLON)          630 AM MAY 14        58 F

.PUTNAM COUNTY...
PUTNAM HALL 3SSW (108 FT)(UCOOP)           630 AM MAY 14        47 F
5 NW INTERLACHEN (151 FT)(APRSWXNET)       448 AM MAY 14        47 F
3 SE WELAKA (13 FT)(APRSWXNET)             527 AM MAY 14        48 F
PALATKA (35 FT)(APRSWXNET)                 623 AM MAY 14        58 F

.ST. JOHNS COUNTY...
HASTINGS 4ESE (27 FT)(UCOOP)               700 AM MAY 14        51 F
1 ESE DURBIN (90 FT)(AWS)                  439 AM MAY 14        51 F
2 E DURBIN (12 FT)(APRSCSVPARSE)           658 AM MAY 14        53 F
SWITZERLAND (29 FT)(APRSWXNET)             453 AM MAY 14        54 F
1 NW FRUIT COVE (13 FT)(APRSWXNET)         351 AM MAY 14        54 F
2 NW SAINT AUGUSTINE (49 FT)(WXFLOW)       725 AM MAY 14        57 F
ST AUGUSTINE AIRPORT (11 FT)(AWOS)         758 AM MAY 14        57 F
1 SSE CRESCENT BEACH (17 FT)(WXFLOW)       700 AM MAY 14        59 F

.SUWANNEE COUNTY...
LIVE OAK FAWN (110 FT)(UCOOP)              645 AM MAY 14        47 F

.GEORGIA...

.APPLING COUNTY...
4 S PINE GROVE (203 FT)(URBANET)           700 AM MAY 14        42 F
4 SW BAXLEY (194 FT)(RAWS)                 504 AM MAY 14        45 F

.BACON COUNTY...
BACON COUNTY AIRPORT (198 FT)(ASOS)        753 AM MAY 14        45 F
2 W ALMA (193 FT)(URBANET)                 700 AM MAY 14        46 F

.BRANTLEY COUNTY...
2 NNW HICKOX (65 FT)(URBANET)              630 AM MAY 14        44 F

.CAMDEN COUNTY...
3 W WOODBINE (13 FT)(URBANET)              500 AM MAY 14        43 F
2 SSW HIGH POINT (24 FT)(RAWS)             712 AM MAY 14        45 F

.CHARLTON COUNTY...
2 ENE FOLKSTON (88 FT)(APRSWXNET)          644 AM MAY 14        46 F
10 SW FOLKSTON (68 FT)(RAWS)               556 AM MAY 14        52 F
JONES ISLAND (GOES)                        601 AM MAY 14        54 F

.CLINCH COUNTY...
4 SSW ARGYLE (154 FT)(URBANET)             700 AM MAY 14        46 F

.COFFEE COUNTY...
4 ESE DOUGLAS (213 FT)(URBANET)            630 AM MAY 14        46 F
DOUGLAS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (AWOS)           555 AM MAY 14        46 F

.GLYNN COUNTY...
5 ESE THALMANN (13 FT)(RAWS)               604 AM MAY 14        44 F
4 S BOYS ESTATE (15 FT)(APRSWXNET)         627 AM MAY 14        45 F
BRUNSWICK GOLDEN ISLES AIRPORT (AWOS)      615 AM MAY 14        48 F
2 SW COUNTRY CLUB ESTATE (URBANET)         630 AM MAY 14        52 F
MALCOLM MC KINNON AIRPORT (ASOS)           753 AM MAY 14        55 F
1 NE JEKYLL ISLAND (33 FT)(WXFLOW)         730 AM MAY 14        55 F

.WARE COUNTY...
2 W DEENWOOD (136 FT)(RAWS)                604 AM MAY 14        46 F
WAYCROSS-WARE COUNTY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT     655 AM MAY 14        48 F

.WAYNE COUNTY...
3 SW ODUM (144 FT)(URBANET)                600 AM MAY 14        42 F
JESUP-WAYNE COUNTY AIRPORT (AWOS)          415 AM MAY 14        43 F

A warming trend starts during the day Wed. & will continue through the weekend with lows staying above 60 & highs in the upper 80s.  That's just a little above the averages of 62 & 85 respectively.  It doesn't look like we'll have much rain -- or at least not much widespread rain -- into early next week other than an isolated afternoon storm near the sea breeze.  Ironically (given the recent heavy rain) we could have some wildfire concerns in a week or so.

Our Jax N.W.S. has posted on their website a summary of local weather for March & April -- click here.

The Atlantic hurricane season is still more than 2 weeks away, but the E. Pacific tropical season begins May 15th.  And seemingly right on cue, an area of disturbed weather -- or low pressure -- is located about 600 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Some forecaste models develop this system & move it to the northwest then eventually north.  There would be no affect on the Atlantic side of the U.S. & probably not on the Southwest U.S.  Water temps. -- see below -- in the area of the disturbane are will into the 80s fahrenheit so are warm enough to support tropical development.  Here's hoping the Atlantic season gets off to a slow start, but the MJO could become at least somewhat active in or near the Atlantic Basin late this month(!).

I am often asked about how difficult & interesting it is to forecast the weather here on the First Coast.  It is very interesting but -- wow -- the weather is -- generally -- far more changeable & therefore even more difficult to forecast in the middle of the U.S.  Take the great state of Iowa, for example, where my fascination for the weather was born as an elementary student.  A little more than a week ago, record snows were falling & as recently as late
last week, there was still snow in some of the ditches.  Tue. there were record highs above 100 degrees!  In fact, as high as 106!  The state is also going to set a record for the longest period between the last tornado of the year & the first tornado of the year. See the statements below from the DSM, Ia N.W.S.:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
308 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

...IMPRESSIVE HEAT ACROSS IOWA TODAY...

READINGS IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA HAVE BREACHED 100 DEGREES TODAY. SIOUX CITY HAS REACHED AT LEAST 106 DEGREES WITH ESTHERVILLE AND SPENCER BOTH AT 103 DEGREES. THIS IS THE
EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF 106 DEGREES IN IOWA SINCE SAC CITY HIT 108 DEGREES ON MAY 29 1934.

HISTORICALLY...THERE HAVE BEEN 11 YEARS IN IOWA SINCE 1873 WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED OR EXCEEDED 100 DEGREES IN THE MONTH OF MAY. 1934 SAW THE MOST DAYS WITH 10 DATES REACHING THE CENTURY
MARK. 1934 ALSO SAW THE HIGHEST MAY READING ON RECORD WITH 111 DEGREES AT INWOOD SET ON MAY 30.

THIS MONTH ALSO NOW MARKS ONE OF THE FEW TIMES THAT SNOW HAS OCCURRED IN THE SAME MONTH AS 100 DEGREE HEAT IN IOWA. MAY 1967 SAW 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN GLENWOOD ON THE 3RD WITH TEMPERATURES HITTING 100 DEGREES IN ONAWA ON THE 24TH AND 104 DEGREES IN SIOUX CENTER ON THE 25TH. IN APRIL 1980...SNOW FELL ON A SEVERAL DIFFERENT DAYS EARLY IN THE MONTH WITH TEMPERATURES HITTING 100 DEGREES IN FORT DODGE AND WATERLOO ON THE 22ND.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1143 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

...IOWA SET TO TIE STATEWIDE TORNADO CESSATION RECORD TODAY...

THE LAST TIME A TORNADO OCCURRED IN THE STATE OF IOWA WAS ON MAY 24TH 2012 IN FAYETTE COUNTY. AT THE END OF THE DAY TODAY...TUESDAY MAY 14...IT WILL HAVE BEEN 355 DAYS SINCE THIS TORNADO. THIS WILL
TIE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF DAYS BETWEEN TORNADO OCCURRENCES SET BETWEEN THE DATES OF MAY 5 1955 AND APRIL 26 1956. HAVING NO TORNADOES THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW...MAY 15...WOULD BREAK
THIS RECORD. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES IS RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THIS STREAK IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ON ITS OWN. HOWEVER...REPORTING STANDARDS IN THE 1950S WERE NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AND COMPREHENSIVE AS THE PRESENT. THE ADVENT OF DOPPLER RADAR AND THE GROWTH OF STORM CHASING AND SPOTTER NETWORKS...ALONG WITH THE NEARLY UBIQUITOUS USE OF CELL PHONES AND THE INTERNET...HAVE GREATLY FACILITATED THE OBSERVING AND REPORTING OF TORNADOES. THEREFORE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAVING A TORNADO OCCUR AND NOT BEING OBSERVED...OR EVEN OBSERVED BUT NOT REPORTED...WAS MUCH GREATER IN THE 1950S THAN WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MAKES THE CURRENT STREAK EVEN MORE REMARKABLE.

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