Flooding continues on our bigger rivers. Even though rain has stopped, realize there's a lag between the end of the rain, run-off & when the rivers respond, crest & fall. So the St. Marys River finally crested Thu., but the Santa Fe River will not crest until this weekend. Smaller streams are falling & Black Creek, for instance, will fall below flood stage Fri. Our Jax N.W.S. has posted on their website a handy & interesting contrast of the Live Oak flooding "Debby" vs. "Dora" including rainfall maps & photos -- click here. Al Sandrik from the Jax N.W.S. has also posted (18mb file) a very telling photo album of the Black Creek channel flooding - click here...here for Black Creek photos.
Our Salvation Army is "Doing the Most Good" in Live Oak. Photos below show the canteen...workers unloading a truck...& Governor Scott talking to a resident in an evacuation shelter.
For more information about how The Salvation Army is responding to Tropical Storm Debby and other disasters, please log on to ** here **. You can also follow @salarmyeds, @salarmyfla, @salarmyflaeds or search “Salvation Army Florida Division” on Facebook to access the latest information.
The Salvation Army asks people who want to help those affected by disaster to visit ** here ** or call 1-800-SAL-ARMY. Monetary donations are needed to meet survivors’ most immediate needs. A $100 donation can feed a family of four for two days, provide two cases of drinking water and one household cleanup kit, containing brooms, mops, buckets and cleaning supplies.
Additional photos below are from Geneo Graves, Camp Blanding. Yes, that's a rattler crossing the highway Thu. afternoon! The 2nd picture was snapped by Noel McLaren near Macclenny where a mobile home was submerged by the record flooding along the St. Marys River.
From the state of Florida:
STATE LICENSING AGENCY ISSUES CONSUMER ADVISORY IN WAKE OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – The Florida Department of Business and Professional Regulation (DBPR) today urged consumers to hire only licensed professionals as clean-up begins in the wake of Tropical Storm Debby. Flooding has impacted many counties and at least 10 counties have been affected by tornado activity brought by the storm. DBPR also encouraged consumers who suspect someone is performing unlicensed activity to post or tweet pictures to the Department’s social media channels, enabling inspectors to gather information from areas that may have limited accessibility.
“These storms are dangerous, often unpredictable and usually leave wide paths of destruction as they pass through the state,” said Secretary Ken Lawson. “Floridians can prioritize their safety by preparing in advance and can protect themselves from post-storm scams and unlicensed activity by checking licenses.”
During a declared state of emergency, unlicensed activity typically increases as scam artists prey on desperate situations. Unlicensed activity during a declared state of emergency is a criminal offense and may be punishable by fines or even prison if convicted.
The following tips may help consumers better identify unlicensed activity:
Always ask to see the state of Florida license.
Note the license number and verify that the license is current and in good standing. To check a license, call 850-487-1395, visit ** here ** or download -- here -- the DBPR iPhone or Andriod mobile app.
Ask for references and check each one.
Avoid paying cash and be cautious of writing checks made payable to individuals, especially when dealing with a company.
Get everything in writing, including a detailed description of the work to be completed, a completion date and the total cost.
Floridians can also notify the Department of Business and Professional Regulation of any suspected unlicensed activity by calling 1-866-532-1440 or posting a picture with the address where the work is being performed to the Department’s Facebook or Twitter pages. Floridians can find additional information on creating a plan and tips on weathering the storms this Hurricane Season -- click here.
So time for a comparison of forecast models vs. reality when trying to forecast "Debby". As is well known, forecasting the path of "Debby" proved difficult at best. It would appear that since "Debby" never became well developed -- almost always heavily weighted on the east side -- the steering currents were going to come more
from the lower levels. In addition, an upper level ridge across the south did not become particularly strong & was removed a bit to the north & west. All this combined for a tropical cyclone that moved east into Florida rather than west which meant for a huge coup by the American forecasting model GFS.
The GFS consistently showed an east moving storm. The GFS also hinted at tropical development in the Gulf &/or Caribbean 1-2 weeks in advance. Something the model also did with "Beryl". The GFS did struggle some with the speed of the system but -- hands down -- was the clear cut winner & early on was virtually the only model to consistently predict an east movement.
The European model did not consistently pick up on tropical development in the long range & was even worse in insisting on a westward moving strong tropical cylcone -- hurricane strength, in fact. It wasn't until Sun. afternoon -- 48 hours before landfall -- that the European started to turn "Debby" more north & not until Mon. that the model turned "Debby" east.
The UKMET model was pretty much lock-step with the European so gets a failing grade.
The more mesoscale NAM was equally bad in taking "Debby" west before finally catching on Sun. night-Mon.
Such a spread in the models + a disorganized tropical system made for a forecasting conundrum. I have to admit I favored the westward move originally & based my forecast on climatology & a consensus of the models. In addition -- in past years -- the GFS has had a right (or eastward) bias. Perhaps tweeks to the model have taken care of this problem. Recent tweeks to the European model seem to have hurt the model as well as the NAM. The so-called hurricane models -- HWRF & GFDL were simply not in the game yet again which has to be a huge disappointment to the American science community.
We will dry out now with no significant rain through the weekend. Attention turns to a heat wave. Temps. will jump to near 100 degrees this weekend into early next week with heat indices near 110!
The Labor Dep't has released a free heat App:
When working in the heat, safety comes first. With the OSHA Heat Safety Tool, vital safety information is available whenever and wherever it is needed — right on the worker’s mobile phone.
The App allows workers and supervisors to calculate the heat index for their worksite, and, based on the heat index, displays a risk level to outdoor workers.
Then, with a simple "click," they can get reminders about the protective measures that should be taken at that risk level to protect workers from heat-related illness—reminders about drinking enough fluids, scheduling rest breaks, planning for and knowing what to do in an emergency, adjusting work operations, gradually building up the workload for new workers, training on heat illness signs and symptoms, and monitoring each other for signs and symptoms of heat-related illness.
Click here for the iPhone....here for the Android.