The storm system is on track to bring the entire First Coast rain -- at one time or another -- Tue. into Wed. The first round of rain will be with a warm front that will push north across the area during the day Tue. Once to the north, showers will become isolated, there will be some sun, breezy south to southwest winds will blow & temps. will jump well into the 70s.
Intensifying low pressure will move into the Fl. Panhandle by Tue. night then northeast through the Carolina's to near Washington D.C. by midday Wed. where the storm will consolidate & intensify faster. A strong cold front will swing "underneath" the low to the east across the Fl. Peninsula Tue. night/early Wed. with a line of heavy showers & possibly imbedded thunderstorms. There may be several bands of rain before the primary frontal squall line of rain & storms. While there may be a few severe storms within this band, widespread severe doesn't appear likely for the First Coast due primarily to limited instability. But there could be wind gusts of 40-50 mph, locally higher with showers that might not even contain much if any lightning. An isolated tornado is also possible but would be the exception rather than the rule. A low level jet will develop with winds of more than 45 mph so even moderate to heavy showers could help push some of this wind "energy" to the surface.
The front will quickly speed off to the east Wed. & will be followed by clearing skies, gusty winds & chilly temps. A light inland freeze will occur early Thu. but -- as has been the case the last few cold snaps -- winds will not go completely calm & will take on an easterly component which will keep the beaches & intracoastal milder....& well above freezing.
Thanksgiving Day itself will be partly cloudy & chilly with highs only in the upper 50s.
This storm will produce some higher elevation ice & snow from extreme Northern Georgia through the Western Carolina's up the spine of the Appalachians. But the I-95 corridor all the way up the coast to New England will see primarily rain -- & wet highways -- from this storm.
While not a "blockbluster", this will be a significant storm as it makes its way to the coast. The good news is that travel weather for the return trip home over the weekend looks much better.
So in synopsis:
-- relatively steady, widespread rain Tue. morning will become more widely scattered in the afternoon
-- Tue. will be breezy & very mild
-- A band (or several bands) of showers & a few storms will move east across the First Coast very late Tue./Tue. night/early Wed. with brief heavy rain & gusty winds. Though not likely, an isolated brief tornado will be possible.
-- Rainfall will average a half inch to an inch, locally 1-2".
-- Skies will quickly clear later Wed., but it will become windy & chilly.
-- A light inland freeze will be possible Thanksgiving morning.