First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Gorgeous Autumn Weather... Changes for the Weekend... Oct. Avreages

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Updated: 10/01/2013 10:36 pm

Some beautiful & classic autumn weather this week. Temps. will be nice & cool at night -- 50s well inland, low 60s along the I-95 corridor to near 70 at the beaches. Days will be partly to mostly sunny & warm but with low humidity as highs reach the 80s.

Changes begin to take shape by the weekend. Tropical moisture will flow northward from the Caribbean so humidity will increase to some degree by Fri. & especially over the weekend. The combination of higher humidity & warm temps. should trigger scattered showers & a few t'storms. A weakening cool front will move into the area early next week leading to more rain, but the much cooler air should stay bottled up well to the north.

Adding some "punch" to the weekend/early week rain scenario will be some kind of tropical disturbance moving north from the Caribbean. Conditions look to remain marginal for much development but a tropical depression or even low end tropical storm might move toward the Gulf Coast between New Orleans & the Fl. Panhandle Fri. into the weekend. This kind of development would be pretty common for this time of year emanating from a wave that's been slowly moving northwest through the Caribbean. The cold front moving into the Southeast U.S. early next week is accompanied by an upper level trough which should help turn the tropical disturbance more north then northeast. For updates, go to "Talking the Tropics With Mike". The last map below shows the typical origin & tracks of Oct. tropical cyclones.

Model plots below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:

So we turn our calendars to October. The averages at JIA:

                                   1st                    31st

Low / High                 66 / 84               55 / 77

Sunrise / Sunset 7:20am / 7:12pm 7:40am / 6:40pm - lose 52 min. of daylight

Rainfall: 3.93"

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