First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 10:04 PM on 4/24, issued at 10:04 PM Blackshear, GA | Bristol, GA | Mershon, GA | Millwood, GA

Heatin' Up... Tropics: "Sandy" Final Assessment, Fl. Catastrophe Fund, "Alvin" in E. Pacific... Texas Tornadoes

Set Text Size SmallSet Text Size MediumSet Text Size LargeSet Text Size X-Large
Share
Updated: 5/15/2013 11:36 pm

JIA managed to tie the record low Wed. of 52 degrees.  But say goodbye to the cool temps. as temps. & humidity will edge upward through the weekend.  It's probably safe to say that we've experienced the coolest temps. we'll have until at least Oct. By the weekend there should be enough moisture in the atmosphere to trigger isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms - mainly inland.  There could be a little higher coverage of storms early next week as a weak upper level disturbance moves slowly across the First Coast.

Several topics in the tropics:
** NOAA has released its final report of "Sandy Service Assessment".  Click here for the full report along with reports on other natural diasters going back to the 1950s.

After a thoughtful and deliberate review, today NOAA released a report on the National Weather Service's performance during hurricane/post tropical cyclone Sandy. The report, Hurricane/Post Tropical Cyclone Sandy Service Assessment, reaffirms that the National Weather Service provided accurate forecasts for Sandy, giving people early awareness of the significant storm churning toward the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The report includes recommendations to improve products and services to fully meet customer and partner needs in the future.
 
"We found that core partners highly value the National Weather Service and thought the forecasts for Sandy were quite good - forecasters performed well predicting the track of this extremely large and complex storm, which undoubtedly saved lives," said Peyton Robertson, director of NOAA's Chesapeake Bay Office and team leader for the Sandy Assessment. "But we also found problems with NOAA's ability to communicate the impacts associated with storm surge, one of the most significant hazards associated with Sandy."
 
The report includes 23 recommendations for service improvements, identifying better storm surge forecasts as the highest priority. Although surge forecasts for Sandy were available two days before the storm, the team found that officials in New York and New Jersey needed information sooner and in more user-friendly, unified formats, including GIS maps and warnings that provide specific local impacts. Among others, the report recommends that NOAA unify public communications of forecast information and expand the use of social science to develop products, services and communication tools to drive public preparedness and response to severe weather.
 
The National Weather Service has already implemented one of the team's recommendations and is developing an action plan to ensure that the team's remaining recommendations become reality. Earlier this year, the National Hurricane Center moved to change its policy to issue forecasts and warnings for dangerous storms like Sandy, even when they are expected to become post-tropical cyclones by landfall. This policy will be in place for the June 1 start of hurricane season.
 
"I'm committed to implementing these recommendations to give America a National Weather Service that is second to none," said Dr. Louis Uccellini, director of NOAA's National Weather Service. "We will achieve better storm surge forecasts, and more accurate and reliable weather forecasts across the board, with increased high performance computing capacity that is planned within the next few years to support improved numerical weather prediction models."
 
He explained that the agency's structure and operations were last modernized two decades ago, and much of the agency's communications capacity was designed in the 1980s.
 
This spring Congress passed the Sandy Supplemental Appropriations Act, providing NOAA with unprecedented opportunity to strengthen the National Weather Service. The Act provides $48 million in supplemental funding to the agency's FY13 budget for Sandy recovery efforts and to improve response and recovery capability for future weather events. The funding will allow the National Weather Service to make critical improvements in high-speed computing, higher resolution weather prediction models and key observation systems, among other projects that will improve the agency's support to local communities for extreme weather events.
           
Sandy was a complex storm, resulting in 72 direct deaths across eight states and at least 75 indirect deaths, damages in excess of $50 billion, storm surge in excess of eight feet and up to three feet of snow in some places. At close to 1,000 miles in diameter, it was among the largest storms ever to strike the U.S. The storm caused impacts in 24 states.
 
NOAA formed a team to assess the National Weather Service's performance before and during the storm, as it does for destructive or deadly weather events. Team members were selected from across NOAA and other government agencies. The team's charter called for the review of three key areas: the issuance and communication of watches and warnings during Sandy; National Weather Service's use of the Internet to communicate with the customers and partners; and the development and communication of storm surge forecasts and information across NOAA.

** The Fl. Catastrophe Fund is apparently in the best financial shape it's been in over the last 20 years.  It's expected that $12 million will be available as of June 1st.  However, during National Hurricane Conferences I've attended the last few years, insurance companies estimate that a major hurricane hit on just about any populated part of Fl. would result in far more damage.  It seems to remain questionable as to whether or not the catastrophe fund would be adequate if Fl. suffers a Cat. 3+ hurricane in or near one of the state's major cities.

** The East Pacific hurrricane season is off & running.  The E. Pacific season officially starts May 15th & -- right on cue -- a storm has formed -- Alvin -- some 600 miles south of Acapulco.  Alvin is likely to stay well west of Mexico but could make a more northward turn by early next week while it weakens over cooler water.

From the National Hurricane Center (remember that the names for E. Pacific storms are different than the Atlantic Basin):

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30.  LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 15...8...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2013 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME           PRONUNCIATION    NAME            PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ALVIN          AL- VIN          MANUEL          MAHN WELL-
BARBARA        BAR- BRUH        NARDA           NAHR- DUH
COSME          COS- MAY         OCTAVE          AHK- TAYV
DALILA         DAH LY- LAH      PRISCILLA       PRIH SIH- LUH
ERICK          EHR- IK          RAYMOND         RAY- MUND
FLOSSIE        FLOSS- EE        SONIA           SOHN- YAH
GIL            GIL              TICO            TEE- KOH
HENRIETTE      HEN REE ETT-     VELMA           VELL- MUH
IVO            EYE VOH-         WALLIS          WAHL- LIS
JULIETTE       JEW LEE EHT-     XINA            ZEE- NAH
KIKO           KEE- KO          YORK            YORK
LORENA         LOW RAY- NA      ZELDA           ZEL- DAH

Severe storms & tornadoes hammered parts of Oklahoma & Texas Wed. evening.  As of this writing, damage & injuries have been reported but information, video & pictures were sparse.  Some YouTube videos: Granbury (with hail on the ground) - click here...a large wallcloud with developing funnel, Granbury - click here...Millsap tornado from "StormChaseMedia" - click here.  Check out the dire warnings issued by the Fort Worth N.W.S.:
$$
FORECASTER BERG
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
923 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 923 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO NEAR CLEBURNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  SPOTTERS REPORTED THAT THIS IS A MILE WIDE TORNADO...CAPABLE OF INCREDIBLE
DESTRUCTION.  THIS TORNADO HAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK AND WAS MOVING NORTH RIGHT AT THE CITY OF CLEBURNE!  IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE!

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  CLEBURNE AROUND 930 PM CDT...
  KEENE AND JOSHUA AROUND 945 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE UNDERGROUND OR TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

CAVANAUGH
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
920 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

TXC251-160245-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130516T0245Z/
JOHNSON TX-
920 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY...

AT 919 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF RIO VISTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  SPOTTERS WERE REPORTING A MILE WIDE TORNADO IN BETWEEN CLEBURNE AND RIO VISTA.  THIS IS AN INCREDIBLY DANGEROUS
TORNADO...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE!

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  GRANDVIEW AROUND 945 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE UNDERGROUND OR TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Share
0 Comment(s)
Comments: Show | Hide

Here are the most recent story comments.View All

The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Action News Jacksonville

No comments yet!
Talking the Tropics with Mike
One of the Least Active in 20+ Years
Inergize Digital This site is hosted and managed by Inergize Digital.
Mobile advertising for this site is available on Local Ad Buy.