Our heavy rain set-up is established, & so the question is when, where & how much.
A nearly stationary front across Central Fl. that will slowly lift north through Wed. Upper level disturbances will move across the area supporting the development of weak low pressure systems that will move along the front. The result will be waves or areas of heavy showers with imbedded t'storms. I don't see a whole lot of drying until at least Thu. Even then -- & continuing into the weekend -- onshore flow will help trigger a few showers, especially near the coast.
It looks like 2 "waves" -- in particular -- of heavy rain. One during the day Tue. & a second during the day Wed.
With the front probably not lifting much north of NE Fl., the heaviest rain should occur in & around Jax & much of NE Fl. Onshore southeast winds will likely cause some additional heavy rain at & near the coast including as far north as coastal SE Ga.
Average rainfall for Jax & NE Fl.: 1-2" but locally 3-5"+
SE Ga: .5-1" except I-95 to the coast: 1-2"+
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So Monday was the first full day of autumn as the autumnal equinox was Sunday @ 4:44pm. While the first frost -- & in a few cases -- freeze of the season have occurred in some areas across the Northern U.S., the First Coast, of course, will have to a wait a while to feel the true taste of fall. I always say we have to wait until about Halloween (or the Jax Fair) to get any extended period of cooler temps. We'll likely get some relief for a day or two here or there but long-lasting cooler air usually doesn't arrive until late Oct./early Nov. There are some indications that this fall might be rather chilly (which we've seen signs of "up north"), so we might be some early intrusions of cool air south to the First Coast.
In fact, the first day of autumn was ushered in with the first snow of the season in Summit Co., Co. -- home to some great snow skiing! Click ** here ** for photos from the Summit Daily..... ** here ** for snowfall reports.
Jax averages during a typical fall:
Low / High
Sept. 23 68 / 86
Oct. 15 61 / 81
Oct. 31 55 / 77
Nov. 15 51 / 74
Dec. 1 47 / 70