A break from the wet weather this weekend though it will be hot. Lower humidity will allow for cooler temps. at night with lows in the 60s inland. Highs will be 85-90 Sat. but soar to the low to mid 90s Sunday. Looks like afternoon storms begin to return by Tue. & especially Wed.-Thu. next week.
Seems strange to say we need a chance to dry out, but it's true. May ended up as the 5th wettest May at JIA. The 10.05" was more than 7.5" above avg. & -- remarkably -- more than twice the rain for the previous 4 months combined - 4.87"! Below are some other May totals courtesy the Jax N.W.S.:
JACKSONVILLE VICINITY... NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
JACKSONVILLE BEACH..... 5.86 LIVE OAK ............ 8.02
JACKSONVILLE NAS....... 8.18 GAINESVILLE ......... 6.90
FORT CAROLINE.......... 7.45 LAKE CITY 2E......... 9.74
BIG TALBOT ISLAND...... 4.04 FEDERAL POINT........ 2.95
LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND... 4.31 ST. AUGUSTINE LITEHS. 4.62
HIGHLANDS.............. 8.41 ST. AUGUSTINE ARPT... 3.02
CRAIG FIELD............ 7.37 HASTINGS 4NE......... 5.12
MAYPORT NS............. 5.85 HIGH SPRINGS......... 5.64
SOUTH PONTE VEDRA......10.59 JASPER............... 6.60
GUANA RIVER ST PARK.... 8.30 BELL 4NW............. 6.66
BEAUCLERC..............11.41 JUNIPER SPRINGS...... 4.33
WHITEHOUSE............. PALM COAST 6NE....... 3.87
OCALA................ 5.27
ORANGE SPRINGS 2SSW.. 8.91
FLAGLER BEACH........ 8.39
CRESCENT CITY........ 3.85
BUNNELL.............. 8.90
STARKE............... 7.80
GLEN ST.MARY......... 7.41
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
BRUNSWICK..............12.94 ST SIMONS ISLAND..... 6.98
HOMERVILLE 5N.......... 6.74 ALMA................. 5.02
PRIDGEN................ 3.83 BAXLEY 5NNW.......... 7.32
WOODBINE...............14.43 HAZLEHURST........... 4.64
FARGO 17NE............. 6.75 PATTERSON............ 4.80
WAYCROSS 4NE........... 6.43 MANOR................ 5.62
NAHUNTA 6NE............10.26
May was also warm -- the avg. temp. of 72.2 degrees was 1.1 degrees above avg.
June averages at JIA:
1st 30th
Low / High 67 / 88 72 / 91
SR / SS 6:25am / 8:24pm 6:28am / 8:33pm - +6 min.
Rainfall: 6.45"
So the first week of the "official" hurricane season will get off to a quiet start. An interesting new model will be introduced this hurricane season in an attempt to try to forecast eyewall replacement cycles. From NOAA:
When the first hurricane emerges from the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico this season, NOAA will use a new statistical model to help predict the start of the "eyewall replacement cycle," a key indicator that a storm's strength and size is about to change dramatically. This new tool adds to a suite of forecast products NOAA uses to warn coastal communities of imminent threats.
An eyewall is an organized band of clouds that immediately surround the center, or eye, of a hurricane. The most intense winds and rainfall occur near the eyewall. Within a hurricane, eyewall replacement cycles occur when a second concentric eyewall forms around the original and eventually overtakes it. This phenomenon especially happens in strong, long-lived hurricanes.
"Hurricanes usually strengthen and grow gradually over time, but eyewall replacement cycles can cause very sudden changes in size and intensity," said Jim Kossin, a scientist with NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, who led the effort to create the model.
The model predicts the start of the developing eyewall replacement cycle by measuring key aspects of the storm's structure and environment and relating these to the conditions observed during past replacement cycles. Kossin said skillful forecasting of these natural cycles is crucial to protecting life and property.
"As it was approaching New Orleans, Hurricane Katrina weakened but grew in size because of an eyewall replacement cycle and the huge wind field led to an enormous storm surge that devastated the Gulf Coast," Kossin said.
The model uses data from NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) to identify hurricane structure patterns related to eyewall replacement cycles. Microwave images from NOAA's polar orbiting satellites were incorporated extensively to create the model using past data.
"This is an important first step towards understanding how we can use the eyewall cycle to someday improve intensity forecasts," said James Franklin, branch chief of the hurricane specialist unit at the National Hurricane Center.
From the Insurance Information Institute:
NEW YORK, May 31, 2012 — Hurricane season officially gets underway on June 1, but we have already witnessed rare May tropical storms, including Alberto and Beryl in the Atlantic Ocean and Bud in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season could produce nine to 15 tropical storms. As many as four to eight of those storms could strengthen into hurricanes and one to three of those could become major hurricanes with top winds of 111 mph or higher.
Wind damage from both tropical storms and hurricanes is covered under standard homeowners and business insurance policies. Flood damage resulting from storm surge caused by hurricanes, is excluded under standard homeowners and renters insurance policies; however flood coverage is available from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and from a few private insurance companies.
Damage to cars from hurricanes is covered under the optional comprehensive portion of an auto insurance policy. This covers wind damage, flooding and even falling objects such as tree limbs. More than 75 percent of all Americans choose to purchase comprehensive auto coverage.
The I.I.I. has a number of experts who can provide information on the economics of insuring a hurricane, as well as provide consumer-related information.
The following hurricane-related online resources are also available (click on each one):
RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS
Issues Update: Catastrophes - Insurance Issues
Issues Update: Hurricane and Windstorm Deductibles
Issues Update: Flood Insurance
White Paper: Residual Market Property Plans - From Markets of Last Resort to Markets of First Choice
CONSUMER INFORMATION
Homeowners and Renters Insurance
Insuring Your Business: Small Business Owners' Guide to Insurance
FACTS AND STATISTICS
Hurricanes
Flood Insurance
VIDEOS
Making Your Home More Hurricane-Resistant: Five Steps
Disaster Planning with Pets
Home Inventory Software
****************** Time for a much needed weekend. After 14+ straight days of work....a landfalling tropical storm.....& intense afternoon storms, I'm seriously sleep-deprived & have dropped 8-9 lbs.
So....here's to a great weekend!
