A hot end to the work week with highs Fri. in the 90s & heat indices 100+. A few midday through afternoon showers & storms will fire producing brief heavy rain in spots. A strong upper level disturbance will move across the Ohio Valley over the weekend. The tail end of the disturbance should be far enough south to increase afternoon storms Sat. & Sun. with locally intense storms. Temps. stay hot: 90-95.
The photo below is a nice shot from Shawn Leary along I-95 in SE Ga. -- towering cumulus cloud.
Tropics are the topic. NOAA issued their updated seasonal forecast Thu. -- click here. Despite the potential for a developing El Nino, forecast numbers were increased some. It would seem that most of the acitivity will occur through the next 4-7 weeks given the potential El Nino.
Speaking of El Nino....NOAA has updated their outlook & continues the "Watch". All indications are that at least weak El Nino conditions are imminent with the bulk of the El Nino later in the fall into the winter which is pretty typical. The map below shows the warming temps. near the equatorial Pacific. Click here or the full report.
Back to the tropics.....looks like we're in for active period ahead, espcially between the 15 & 30th of this month.
** What's left of "Florence" is still evident north & northeast of Puerto Rico. The wave should move to near Fl. over the weekend but is not likely to develop much. The elongated trough/wave -- if it can get far enough west before being absorbed by an upper level trough over the Eastern U.S. -- could enhance rain & storms across Fl. Sat.-Sun.
** "Ernesto" made a 2nd landfall Thu. afternoon & is weakening over Mexico. Forecast models, however, show the decoupled midlevel circulation surviving in the far E. Pacific with possible eventual redevelopment of a low level tropical cyclone(!).
** Tropical depression #7 has formed in the Central Atlantic but has quite a battle ahead. There's a lot of dry mid & upper level air & shear will increase noticeably. Movement will be to the west, but the depression could degenerate to a tropical wave given the hostile conditions ahead.
** A strong wave has come off the coast of Africa & should develop as it moves west then northwest.
It does look like conditions will become especially favorable for tropical development. Check out the map below showing the velocity potential anomalies. In simplest terms, the green areas show "upward motion" that often correlate with thunderstorm development & -- in the tropics -- the potential for tropical development. Brown areas are the opposite making it more difficult for strong tropical development partially due to the "sinking motion". It looks like the upward motion (green area) in the Pacific will be spreading east in the coming weeks.
Click here for "Talking the Tropics With Mike" -- updated every day during the hurricane season.
