"Karen" - A Glancing Blow for the First Coast... Sunrise Photos... Home Depot Safety Fair

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Updated: 10/03/2013 11:40 pm

You'll notice a little more humidity Fri. as tropical moisture continues to surge northward from the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico. The extra humidity will trigger a few isolated showers but most spots stay dry. Much the same story Sat. with only isolated afternoon showers, perhaps a t'storm. Afternoon temps. will reach the mid to upper 80s, so a taste of summer returns.

All eyes, of course, on the Gulf of Mexico & tropical storm "Karen". Click ** here ** to go to "Talking the Tropics With Mike". It looks like "Karen" will have to struggle against west/southwest shear (causing the storm to be heavily weighted on the east side of the circulation) & dry mid & upper leve air. These two factors should keep "Karen" in check until landfall Sat. night or Sun. morning. The worst weather will be along I-10 in the Fl. Panhandle west to near or just east of New Orleans. There will also be a corridor of heavy rain & possibly isolated tornadoes across the south half of Alabama, much of Ga. & the Carolina's as the cyclone merges with a cold front & accelerates to the northeast Sunday-Sun. night. Besides I-10, there will be stormy travel north on I-75 & I-95.

FOR THE FIRST COAST.....primarily fringe effects from "Karen":

* scattered showers & t'storms will increase Sun.-Sun. night

* rainfall will not be great due to the fast movement of the tropical cyclone. Average rainfall will be a half inch to inch, locally more, especially from Lake City to Waycross.

* breezy south to southwest winds 10-15 mph Sat. will increase to 15-25 mph Sunday.

* isolated tornadoes mainly west of the I-75 but there could be some threat from Lake City to Waycross.

Radar imagery below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:

The cold front & upper level trough that will eventually absorb "Karen" is part of a classic autumn storm that's causing all sorts of weather in the middle of the U.S. ranging from severe storms & tornadoes to heavy snow & blizzard conditions. The map below show the wide variety of watches, warnings & advisories.

Check out the beautiful skies Thu. morning -- Kelly Long & Mike Baker sent in photos from Jax Beach & Regency respectively. Given the tropical air mass pushing north into the area, there will be more opportunities for gorgeous skies.

Join me Sat. at the Home Depot in Middleburg for "Safety Day". The event is from 9am-noon....I'll be there from about 10:30am-noon.

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