The weather for this weekend is contingent on the development & movement of low pressure over the Western Atlantic. I first mentioned this possibility nearly 2 weeks ago May 14th (click here). Low pressure has already formed off the SE coast of Fl. as of Thu. evening & will move rather swiftly north/northeast but then the low pressure will encounter a strong high pressure system. It's at this point that the low should abruptly stall then turn toward the west & southwest. The low should be at about Jacksonville's latitude by later Fri. but the day will be full of sun for the First Coast with hot temps. near or above 90 degrees. Areas west of the low have very dry -- & sinking air -- so will have a nice day. Even Sat. as the low makes its turn to the west, it's likely that much of the day will still be dry & hot with northwest winds allowing temps. well into the 90s.
The next question is whether or not the low becomes tropical. That's a tough one as water temps. will be marginal at best to support a tropical cyclone. The general rule of thumb is a water temp. of 80 degrees F. The low will be in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream. It seems the most probably scenario is a subtropical low which does not have a completely warm core. Still....tropical, subtropical or not....it look like we'll see rain & some wind with the system.
As for timing & location, that's really up in the air. But it does look like low pressure will move ashore anywhere between S. Carolina & Flagler Beach Sun. into Memorial Day. Areas just to the north of the surface low could have an isolated tornado risk.
Meanwhile...in the E. Pacific the 2nd tropical storm of the young season -- "Bud" -- has become a hurricane & will reach the Central Mexican coast late Fri./Fri. night though the storm might have peaked late Thu.
All of this early season tropical activity fits beautifully with a region of positive velocity potential anomalies. If you've read this blog &/or "Talking the Tropics With Mike" regularly, you've frequently seen me refer to this "upward motion" (the green area on the map below) that correlates with an increase in convection/thunderstorms & can also be a good indicator for potential tropical development. Sure enough a strong area of this upward motion is spreading from the E.Pacific into the Cariibbean, Gulf of Mexico & W. Atlantic. With near neutral ENSO conditions (weakening La Nina, no strong El Nino) right now, these anomalies should be pretty handy on giving us clues to an uptick in possible tropical development.
Fittingly....NOAA issued its seasonal hurricane forecast -- click here for the full story. So a comparison between Colorado St. & NOAA:
Named Storms Hurricanes Cat.3 or stronger
Co. State 10 4 2
NOAA 9-15 4-8 1-3
Average 12 7 2
Big weekend of activities -- Memorial Day, Jazz Fest & the U.S. vs. Scotland soccer game Sat. night.
Friday is "Fry Day", so declared by the Nat. Council on Skin Cancer Prevention:
Go Beyond Sunscreen on “Don’t Fry Day”
Fourth Annual National Council on Skin Cancer Prevention “Don’t Fry Day” Campaign Encourages Sun-Safety Awareness
WASHINGTON, D.C. — May 22, 2012— Despite skin cancer being largely preventable, it remains by far the most common type of cancer in the United States. There are more than 3.5 million cases of skin cancer diagnosed in more than two million people each year, which is more than new cases of breast, prostate, lung and colon cancers combined. To help reduce rising rates of skin cancer, the National Council on Skin Cancer Prevention designated the Friday before Memorial Day, May 25, 2012, as “Don’t Fry Day.”
This year, the National Council urges everyone to go beyond sunscreen to protect their skin while enjoying the outdoors. While generous sunscreen usage is an important way to protect your skin from the sun, there are additional sun-safety measures that can help prevent skin cancer:
** Avoid sun burning, intentional tanning, and using tanning beds;
** Wear sun-protective clothing, a wide-brimmed hat, and sunglasses;
** Seek the shade when you can. Use umbrellas or other shade structures when outdoors.
** Use extra caution near water, snow, and sand;
** Get vitamin D safely through food and vitamin D supplements.
“As millions of Americans head outdoors for family fun on Memorial Day weekend – the unofficial kick-off to summer – “Don’t Fry Day” is an important reminder for the public to protect their skin from ultraviolet (UV) radiation while enjoying the outdoors,” said board-certified dermatologist Sandra I. Read, M.D., co-chair of the National Council on Skin Cancer Prevention. “While most everyone enjoys a sunny day, keeping your skin safe from overexposure to UV radiation can be easy by practicing simple sun-safety tips.”
When choosing a sunscreen, the National Council on Skin Cancer Prevention recommends a broad spectrum sunscreen with a sun protection factor (SPF) of 30 or higher for protection from ultraviolet A (UVA) and ultraviolet B (UVB) rays. Sunscreen should be applied 15 minutes before going outdoors and reapplied every two hours.
Skin cancer is on the rise in the U.S. Here are some statistics:
** There are more than 3.5 million new cases of skin cancer diagnosed and 2.2 million people treated in the U.S. each year.
** The American Cancer Society estimates that 76,250 cases of melanoma (the most serious form of skin cancer) will be diagnosed in 2012 in the U.S., and 9,180 people will die from the disease.
** Melanoma incidence rates have been increasing for at least 30 years. Since 2004, incidence rates among whites have been increasing by almost 3% per year in both men and women.
** Most skin cancers are caused by overexposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation.
** Sunburns during childhood increase the risk of melanoma and other skin cancers later in life.
** Melanoma is now one of the most common cancers among young adults ages 15-29.
To minimize the harmful effects of too much UV exposure, the National Council advocates that comprehensive protection from UV radiation should be a life-long, year-round practice for everyone. Click here for more info.
