First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Major Winter Storm... Post Analysis Subtropical Cyclone Upgrade

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Updated: 2/12 8:20 am
Our major winter storm is taking shape across the South & Southeast & will eventually work its way up the east coast with a mix of heavy precip. from Louisiana & Arkansas to Georgia to Washington D.C. to Maine (click ** here ** to see an animation of the projected mix of precip. on my FB fan page).

For the First Coast, there will be a huge range in temps. Wed. afternoon/early evening -- see the map below (title says "tomorrow" - is Wed. late day).  Fog, drizzle & light rain in the morning will shift north through the day so that Jacksonville & Northeast Fl. should see at least somewhat of a brightening of the skies (or an increase in the ceilings of the overcast) in the afternoon with milder temps.  Then the strong upper level disturbance helping to drive a cold front will increase bands of rain with a few imbedded t'storms later Wed. into Wed. night.  Everyone will get at least some rain with amounts averaging 0.25-0.75", locally 1"+.

As the storm moves away Thu., brisk northwest winds will make for a very cool day in the 50s despite plenty of sun by afternoon.  Diminishing winds & clear skies will combine for a cold night with some light inland frost early Fri. -- mainly near & west of Highway 301.

After Wed.-Wed. night, I don't see significant rain through at least early next week.

From the National Hurricane Center (click ** here ** for a map):

As part of its routine post-season review, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) occasionally identifies from new data or meteorological interpretation a previously undesignated tropical or subtropical cyclone.

The NHC re-analysis of 2013 has concluded that a short-lived low that developed south of the Azores during early December was a subtropical storm.

With this addition, the 2013 Atlantic season ended with 14 tropical and subtropical storms. Two, Ingrid and Humberto, became hurricanes, but neither became a major hurricane.

Speaking of the National Hurricane Center -- as I've mentioned several time in the last couple of years -- the NHC will issue Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps during the upcoming season when & if a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane is forecast.  These maps promise to be very useful -- click ** here ** for more info.
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