First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Milder, Some Rain... Jags' Game... First Freeze of the Season... Sugar Mountain Opens!... El Nino & Global Temps... Satellite Data... Gettysburg Address 150 Years Ago

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Updated: 11/14/2013 9:48 pm

A disturbance moving northeast from the Gulf of Mexico will bring lots of clouds Fri. along with some light showers. Quite a few spots will get rain but amounts won't be much -- less than quarter of an inch. The weekend still look warm & rather humid with highs in the mid 70 Sat. & near 80 degrees Sunday. Only a few isolated to widely scattered brief showers. Radar imagery below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District.

The Jags' game will be rather toasty for Nov. withe temps. around 80.... winds blowing from the S/SE at 10-15 mph & perhaps a brief shower otherwise mostly cloudy.

Areas N & W of Jax -- particularly near the Fl./Ga. border into inland SE Ga., had their first freeze of the season early Thu.  From our Jax N.W.S.: 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 

...LOW TEMPERATURE REPORTS THIS MORNING... 

LOCATION                       TEMP      TIME/DATE       LAT/LON

FLORIDA...

ALACHUA...

5 SSE BROOKER                  35        0306 AM 11/14   29.81N/82.30W

2 S LA CROSSE                  36        0645 AM 11/14   29.80N/82.41W

6 SSW HIGH SPRINGS             36        0318 AM 11/14   29.74N/82.62W

HIGH SPRINGS                   37        0700 AM 11/14   29.83N/82.60W

3 WNW ALACHUA                  38        0415 AM 11/14   29.81N/82.52W

5 SE ALACHUA                   38        0316 AM 11/14   29.73N/82.42W

2 E UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA      39        0239 AM 11/14   29.64N/82.32W

3 NW UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA     39        0309 AM 11/14   29.67N/82.39W

5 WSW UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA    41        0654 AM 11/14   29.61N/82.43W

GAINESVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT   45        0653 AM 11/14   29.69N/82.27W

6 SSE ALACHUA                  45        0823 AM 11/14   29.69N/82.45W

BAKER...

7 NNW TAYLOR                   29        0904 PM 11/13   30.54N/82.34W

3 N OLUSTEE                    30        1104 PM 11/13   30.25N/82.42W

MACCLENNY                      34        1100 PM 11/13   30.28N/82.14W

2 S MACCLENNY                  37        1105 PM 11/13   30.25N/82.12W

2 S MACCLENNY                  37        1000 PM 11/13   30.25N/82.12W

BRADFORD...

5 NNW KEYSTONE HEIGHTS         37        0315 AM 11/14   29.85N/82.05W

STARKE                         42        0800 AM 11/14   29.94N/82.07W

CLAY...

8 N FLORAHOME                  39        0300 AM 11/14   29.85N/81.89W

4 W LAKESIDE                   39        0650 AM 11/14   30.12N/81.85W

2 WSW DOCTORS INLET            39        0313 AM 11/14   30.10N/81.80W

3 W DOCTORS INLET              40        0303 AM 11/14   30.12N/81.81W

LAKESIDE                       40        0555 AM 11/14   30.13N/81.77W

COLUMBIA...

6 SSE WELLBORN                 39        0700 AM 11/14   30.15N/82.78W

DUVAL...

6 WSW JACKSONVILLE HEIGH       37        0515 AM 11/14   30.22N/81.88W

1 ESE JACKSONVILLE             39        0700 AM 11/14   30.32N/81.64W

JACKSONVILLE                   39        0656 AM 11/14   30.48N/81.70W

6 WNW JACKSONVILLE HEIGH       40        0652 AM 11/14   30.29N/81.87W

2 E NORMANDY                   41        0640 AM 11/14   30.30N/81.73W

1 SSE ORTEGA                   41        0303 AM 11/14   30.26N/81.70W

2 E NORMANDY                   41        0304 AM 11/14   30.30N/81.73W

1 E NORMANDY                   41        0659 AM 11/14   30.31N/81.74W

5 NNE MANDARIN                 42        0705 AM 11/14   30.21N/81.60W

2 NNW TALLYRAND                42        0659 AM 11/14   30.39N/81.65W

2 SSE ORTEGA                   42        0647 AM 11/14   30.25N/81.69W

4 ENE MANDARIN                 43        0651 AM 11/14   30.18N/81.59W

1 W ARLINGTON                  43        0635 AM 11/14   30.34N/81.63W

2 SW SAN PABLO                 45        0651 AM 11/14   30.27N/81.46W

3 SE ORTEGA                    45        0653 AM 11/14   30.23N/81.68W

FORT CAROLINE                  45        0302 AM 11/14   30.39N/81.50W

CRAIG MUNICIPAL AIRPORT        46        0653 AM 11/14   30.34N/81.51W

FORT CAROLINE                  49        0654 AM 11/14   30.40N/81.49W

JACKSONVILLE BEACH             50        0500 PM 11/13   30.29N/81.39W

1 S MAYPORT                    51        0611 PM 11/13   30.37N/81.41W

MAYPORT NAVSTA                 51        1152 PM 11/13   30.40N/81.43W

FLAGLER...

FLAGLER COUNTY AIRPORT         55        0550 PM 11/13   29.47N/81.21W

PALM COAST                     56        0505 PM 11/13   29.58N/81.23W

3 N BUNNELL                    56        0629 PM 11/13   29.51N/81.25W

MARINELAND                     58        0800 PM 11/13   29.67N/81.22W

WASHINGTON OAKS STATE GARDENS  58        0700 AM 11/14   29.63N/81.21W

2 NNW FLAGLER BEACH            59        0531 PM 11/13   29.50N/81.14W

GILCHRIST...

BELL 4WNW                      35        0645 AM 11/14   29.77N/82.92W

6 WNW NEWBERRY                 38        0359 AM 11/14   29.67N/82.70W

HAMILTON...

WATER TREATMEANT PLANT         31        0620 AM 11/14   30.52N/82.94W

MARINE REPORTING STATIONS...

1 WNW MAYPORT                  50        0736 AM 11/14   30.40N/81.43W

1 NNE JACKSONVILLE BEACH       52        0404 PM 11/13   30.29N/81.39W

1 NNE SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH    56        0300 PM 11/13   29.86N/81.26W

47 ENE SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH   61        0450 PM 11/13   30.00N/80.50W

MARION...

ORANGE SPRINGS 2SSW            40        0800 AM 11/14   29.48N/81.97W

OCAL INTL AP - JIM TAYLOR FLD  41        0415 AM 11/14   29.17N/82.22W

3 NNE REDDICK                  42        0245 AM 11/14   29.41N/82.17W

3 WNW OCKLAWAHA                42        0703 AM 11/14   29.06N/81.98W

3 E RAINBOW LAKES ESTA         42        0443 AM 11/14   29.15N/82.40W

3 ESE OCALA AIRPORT            44        0423 AM 11/14   29.16N/82.18W

1 E LAKE WEIR                  44        0645 AM 11/14   29.02N/81.97W

5 NW SALT SPRINGS              44        0304 AM 11/14   29.40N/81.81W

OCALA                          50        0500 PM 11/13   29.08N/82.08W

NASSAU...

1 ESE HILLIARD                 32        0639 AM 11/14   30.69N/81.91W

4 ESE YULEE                    37        1124 PM 11/13   30.62N/81.51W

1 SSE AMELIA CITY              43        0539 AM 11/14   30.57N/81.45W

3 NE YULEE                     44        0237 AM 11/14   30.66N/81.54W

FERNANDINA BEACH MUNICIPAL AIR 45        0315 AM 11/14   30.61N/81.46W

1 NW FERNANDINA BEACH          49        0624 AM 11/14   30.67N/81.46W

PUTNAM...

3 SSW PUTNAM HALL              39        0245 AM 11/14   29.70N/81.98W

5 NW INTERLACHEN               40        0446 AM 11/14   29.67N/81.95W

3 SE WELAKA                    44        0645 AM 11/14   29.44N/81.63W

HASTINGS 3 MI WNW              51        0600 PM 11/13   29.75N/81.54W

SAINT JOHNS...

1 ESE DURBIN                   44        0639 AM 11/14   30.08N/81.45W

1 NW FRUIT COVE                45        1241 AM 11/14   30.11N/81.64W

2 E DURBIN                     46        0715 AM 11/14   30.08N/81.41W

3 SSE SPUDS                    47        0645 AM 11/14   29.69N/81.44W

ST AUGUSTINE LIGHTHOUSE        53        0500 PM 11/13   29.91N/81.31W

1 NW SAINT AUGUSTINE           54        0828 AM 11/14   29.92N/81.33W

ST AUGUSTINE AIRPORT           55        0858 PM 11/13   29.96N/81.34W

CRESCENT BEACH                 59        0810 PM 11/13   29.72N/81.23W

SUWANNEE...

3 N HOUSTON                    34        1000 PM 11/13   30.30N/82.90W

LIVE OAK WQHL                  43        0437 PM 11/13   30.29N/82.97W

UNION...

LAKE BUTLER                    39        0249 AM 11/14   30.02N/82.34W

GEORGIA...

APPLING...

BAXLEY 5NNW                    24        0810 AM 11/14   31.85N/82.38W

4 S PINE GROVE                 26        0130 AM 11/14   31.75N/82.44W

4 SW BAXLEY                    28        0204 AM 11/14   31.71N/82.39W

BACON...

BACON COUNTY AIRPORT           29        1153 PM 11/13   31.54N/82.51W

1 W ALMA                       34        0630 AM 11/14   31.54N/82.51W

BRANTLEY...

NAHUNTA 6NE                    27        0700 AM 11/14   31.27N/81.92W

2 NNW HICKOX                   29        1115 PM 11/13   31.18N/82.01W

CAMDEN...

3 W WOODBINE                   31        0845 PM 11/13   30.96N/81.77W

WOODBINE                       35        0749 AM 11/14   30.96N/81.71W

2 SSW HIGH POINT               44        0412 AM 11/14   30.92N/81.43W

CHARLTON...

2 ENE FOLKSTON                 33        0904 PM 11/13   30.85N/81.99W

10 SW FOLKSTON                 36        0856 PM 11/13   30.74N/82.13W

1 WNW STEVEN FOSTER STATE PARK 37        0701 AM 11/14   30.83N/82.36W

CLINCH...

HOMERVILLE 5N                  28        0600 AM 11/14   31.08N/82.80W

3 SSW ARGYLE                   30        1100 PM 11/13   31.02N/82.66W

COFFEE...

PRIDGEN                        29        0520 AM 11/14   31.70N/82.92W

4 ESE DOUGLAS                  29        1215 AM 11/14   31.49N/82.79W

DOUGLAS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT      34        0655 AM 11/14   31.48N/82.86W

GLYNN...

5 ESE THALMANN                 31        1204 AM 11/14   31.26N/81.61W

4 S BOYS ESTATE                35        0727 PM 11/13   31.27N/81.48W

BRUNSWICK GOLDEN ISLES AIRPORT 36        0655 PM 11/13   31.26N/81.47W

2 SW COUNTRY CLUB ESTATE       39        0615 AM 11/14   31.19N/81.48W

BRUNSWICK COOP                 40        1105 PM 11/13   31.17N/81.50W

JEKYLL ISLAND                  41        0225 AM 11/14   31.05N/81.41W

MALCOLM MC KINNON AIRPORT      41        0653 AM 11/14   31.15N/81.39W

PIERCE...

WAYCROSS                       30        0700 AM 11/14   31.25N/82.31W

PATTERSON                      31        0800 AM 11/14   31.38N/82.13W

WARE...

MANOR                          27        0800 AM 11/14   31.08N/82.57W

2 W DEENWOOD                   31        1204 AM 11/14   31.25N/82.40W

WAYCROSS-WARE COUNTY MUNICIPAL 34        1155 PM 11/13   31.25N/82.40W

WAYNE...

JESUP-WAYNE COUNTY AIRPORT     30        0935 PM 11/13   31.55N/81.88W

2 SW ODUM                      30        0930 PM 11/13   31.63N/82.05W

The recent cold spell has been enough for the slopes to open at Sugar Mountain, NC:

SUGAR MOUNTAIN SKI RESORT, NORTH CAROLINA. November 13, 2013 - Sugar Mountain Ski Resort in the Appalachian Mountains of Western North Carolina is open Wednesday, November 13th for skiing and snowboarding. "It feels terrific to get the winter season started. A mid-November opening is typical for Sugar Mountain," said Owner & President Gunther Jochl.

Snowmaking began Sunday evening, November 10th and continued until mid-morning on the 11th. A brief warm-up shut snowmaking down for the day. However, the snow machines came back to life early Tuesday morning as temperatures steadily dropped throughout the day. Overnight temperatures settled in the single digits at the summit and mid-teens at the base, creating an ideal snowmaking environment. Snow flurries accompanied the polar express leaving a dusting of natural snow on Sugar Mountain. Snowmaking continues.

Today skiers and snowboarders can expect a 6-24 inch base on a manmade packed powder surface covering the Upper and Lower Flying Mile slopes. The Summit #1 Lift is in operation to the 3/4's station. Lift/slope ticket prices are $30 for a full-day session and $25 for a half-day session. For a real time look at the slopes through the live, go to the streaming web cam

For more information please call 800-SUGAR-MT or go ** here ** for the latest slope and weather conditions. Historical opening and closing dates as well as recorded annual natural snowfall measurements can be found ** here **.

According to research at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, it's possible that frequent El Nino conditions in the Pacific have played a "significant" role in the global temp. rise:

"Our modeling shows that natural climate cycles explain at least part of the ocean warming we've seen since the 1950s," said Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist in UAH's Earth System Science Center and the new study's lead author. "But we also found that because the globe has had more frequent La Niña cooling events in the past ten or fifteen years, they are canceling out some of the effects of global warming."

The paper detailing this research, "The Role of ENSO in Global Ocean Temperature Changes During 1955-2011 Simulated with a 1D Climate Model," is scheduled for publication in the Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science, and is available online at ** here **.

The results also suggest the world will warm by 1.3 C (about 2.34° F) from a doubling of atmospheric CO2, which is only one-half of the warming expected by most climate researchers.

General circulation climate models — such as those used to forecast global climate change — do not reproduce the tendency toward 30 year periods of stronger El Niño or La Niña activity, as are seen in nature.

Spencer and co-author Dr. Danny Braswell used all of the usual climate modeling forcings — including carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas enrichment — in their study, but also plugged the observed history of El Niño ocean warming and La Niña ocean cooling events into their model to calculate the 61-year change in global ocean temperature averages from the sea surface to a depth of 2,000 meters.

"We used the observed ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) history since the 1950s as a pseudo forcing factor of the model," Spencer said.

When they ran their ocean model without ENSO, they arrived at the same general conclusions as the more complex general circulation climate models. When they added data from past El Niño and La Niña events as only a change in ocean mixing, the model indicated a climate system that is slightly less sensitive to CO2-induced warming than has been believed.

But the biggest change was when the model was allowed to change cloud cover with El Niño and La Niña in the same way as has been observed from satellites. The results suggest that these natural climate cycles change the total amount of energy received from the sun, providing a natural warming and cooling mechanism of the surface and deep ocean on multi-decadal time scales.

"As a result, because as much as 50% of the warming since the 1970s could be attributed to stronger El Niño activity, it suggests that the climate system is only about half as sensitive to increasing CO2 as previously believed", Spencer said.

"Basically, previously it was believed that if we doubled the CO2 in the atmosphere, sea surface temperatures would warm about 2.5 C," Spencer said. That's 4.5° F. "But when we factor in the ENSO warming, we see only a 1.3 C (about 2.3° F) final total warming after the climate system has adjusted to having twice as much CO2."

It was previously known that Pacific Ocean warming and cooling events come and go in roughly 30-year periods of predominance, where El Niño warming events are stronger than La Niño cooling events for approximately 30 years, followed by roughly three decades where the reverse is true.

During the period of this study, cooling events were dominant from the 1950s into the late 1970s. That was followed by a period of strong El Niño warming activity that lasted into the early 2000s. The current phase has seen increased La Niña cooling activity.

Spencer said it is reasonable to suspect that the increased La Niña cooling might be largely responsible for an ongoing "pause" in global warming that has lasted more than a decade. If that is the case, weak warming might be expected to revive when this phase of the El Niño-La Niña cycle shifts back to a warmer El Niño period.

The study was the result of a debate over whether clouds can be part of an active forcing mechanism for global warming, or are just a passive response to temperature change.

"What we found is, to explain the satellite data we had to invoke a change in clouds nine months before the peak of either an El Niño or a La Niña," Spencer said. "When the clouds change, it takes time for that to translate into a temperature change.

"We get the best fit to the observations when we let clouds cause some of the temperature change. These cloud changes are occurring before the temperature starts to respond, so they can't be caused by the temperature changes."

Before an El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event, global cloud cover decreases, allowing more solar energy to reach the Earth's surface and be converted into heat. On the flip side, before a La Niña Pacific Ocean cooling event, cloud cover increases, shading more of the Earth's surface and reflecting an increased amount of solar energy back into space.

While changes in cloud cover intensify the warming or cooling of these ocean events, Spencer and Braswell still found that two-thirds of the sea surface temperature changes during both El Niño and La Niña events are driven by changes in ocean mixing. But the one-third forcing by clouds turns out to be an important component, substantially changing our interpretation of how sensitive the climate system is to CO2 emissions.

Our IT person here at Action News shared ** this link ** with me - satellite & climate data from NASA is now available to everyone on the web.

Our Jacksonville Salvation Army had their Red Kettle kickoff Thu. afternoon at Andrew Jackson H.S. The photo below is Major Thomas McWilliams announcing "start your ringing"! Look for the bell ringers Mon.-Sat. through Christmas Eve day. Action News & Cox radio in Jax will proudly ring the bell Nov. 30th & Dec. 7th -- more on that later. From our Salvation Army:

(Jacksonville, FL)   Thursday, November 14, will officially kick off The Salvation Army of Northeast Florida’s 2013 Red Kettle Christmas campaign, the oldest annual charitable fundraiser of its kind in the United States. Through Christmas Eve, December 24, the campaign will raise money for people in need right here in our community, providing toys for kids, shelter for the homeless, food for the hungry and countless social service programs year-round.

"The holidays are a time for great traditions, spending time with family and friends, giving thanks for the blessings in your life and remembering those less fortunate," says Major Thomas McWilliams, Area Commander for The Salvation Army of NE FL. Like in years past, The Salvation Army relies on members of the community during the Christmas season through ringing the bell and collecting toys through their annual Angel Tree toy drive. Thanks to your kettle donation in 2012, The Salvation Army distributed over 100,000 toys and gifts to over 7,500 needy children and seniors at Christmas.

From its original beginnings as a fundraiser started by a Salvation Army captain in San Francisco in 1891, the Red Kettle Campaign has grown into one of the most recognizable and important charitable campaigns in the United States. As part of the campaign, Salvation Army staff and volunteers spread out around the First Coast to ring bells daily and solicit spare change donations to the iconic red kettles from holiday shoppers. Last year, the funds helped The Salvation Army provide food, clothing, toys and other assistance to nearly 300,000 people in need in Northeast Florida.

Interesting little historical note (I'm an Abraham Lincoln fan)... next will be 150 years since Lincoln gave his Gettysburg Address. The local paper panned the speech at the time but offered a public apology this week -- better late than never! - click ** here**.

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