A disturbance moving northeast from the Gulf of Mexico will bring lots of clouds Fri. along with some light showers. Quite a few spots will get rain but amounts won't be much -- less than quarter of an inch. The weekend still look warm & rather humid with highs in the mid 70 Sat. & near 80 degrees Sunday. Only a few isolated to widely scattered brief showers. Radar imagery below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District.
The Jags' game will be rather toasty for Nov. withe temps. around 80.... winds blowing from the S/SE at 10-15 mph & perhaps a brief shower otherwise mostly cloudy.
Areas N & W of Jax -- particularly near the Fl./Ga. border into inland SE Ga., had their first freeze of the season early Thu. From our Jax N.W.S.:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
...LOW TEMPERATURE REPORTS THIS MORNING...
LOCATION TEMP TIME/DATE LAT/LON
5 SSE BROOKER 35 0306 AM 11/14 29.81N/82.30W
2 S LA CROSSE 36 0645 AM 11/14 29.80N/82.41W
6 SSW HIGH SPRINGS 36 0318 AM 11/14 29.74N/82.62W
HIGH SPRINGS 37 0700 AM 11/14 29.83N/82.60W
3 WNW ALACHUA 38 0415 AM 11/14 29.81N/82.52W
5 SE ALACHUA 38 0316 AM 11/14 29.73N/82.42W
2 E UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 39 0239 AM 11/14 29.64N/82.32W
3 NW UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 39 0309 AM 11/14 29.67N/82.39W
5 WSW UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 41 0654 AM 11/14 29.61N/82.43W
GAINESVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT 45 0653 AM 11/14 29.69N/82.27W
6 SSE ALACHUA 45 0823 AM 11/14 29.69N/82.45W
7 NNW TAYLOR 29 0904 PM 11/13 30.54N/82.34W
3 N OLUSTEE 30 1104 PM 11/13 30.25N/82.42W
MACCLENNY 34 1100 PM 11/13 30.28N/82.14W
2 S MACCLENNY 37 1105 PM 11/13 30.25N/82.12W
2 S MACCLENNY 37 1000 PM 11/13 30.25N/82.12W
5 NNW KEYSTONE HEIGHTS 37 0315 AM 11/14 29.85N/82.05W
STARKE 42 0800 AM 11/14 29.94N/82.07W
8 N FLORAHOME 39 0300 AM 11/14 29.85N/81.89W
4 W LAKESIDE 39 0650 AM 11/14 30.12N/81.85W
2 WSW DOCTORS INLET 39 0313 AM 11/14 30.10N/81.80W
3 W DOCTORS INLET 40 0303 AM 11/14 30.12N/81.81W
LAKESIDE 40 0555 AM 11/14 30.13N/81.77W
6 SSE WELLBORN 39 0700 AM 11/14 30.15N/82.78W
6 WSW JACKSONVILLE HEIGH 37 0515 AM 11/14 30.22N/81.88W
1 ESE JACKSONVILLE 39 0700 AM 11/14 30.32N/81.64W
JACKSONVILLE 39 0656 AM 11/14 30.48N/81.70W
6 WNW JACKSONVILLE HEIGH 40 0652 AM 11/14 30.29N/81.87W
2 E NORMANDY 41 0640 AM 11/14 30.30N/81.73W
1 SSE ORTEGA 41 0303 AM 11/14 30.26N/81.70W
2 E NORMANDY 41 0304 AM 11/14 30.30N/81.73W
1 E NORMANDY 41 0659 AM 11/14 30.31N/81.74W
5 NNE MANDARIN 42 0705 AM 11/14 30.21N/81.60W
2 NNW TALLYRAND 42 0659 AM 11/14 30.39N/81.65W
2 SSE ORTEGA 42 0647 AM 11/14 30.25N/81.69W
4 ENE MANDARIN 43 0651 AM 11/14 30.18N/81.59W
1 W ARLINGTON 43 0635 AM 11/14 30.34N/81.63W
2 SW SAN PABLO 45 0651 AM 11/14 30.27N/81.46W
3 SE ORTEGA 45 0653 AM 11/14 30.23N/81.68W
FORT CAROLINE 45 0302 AM 11/14 30.39N/81.50W
CRAIG MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 46 0653 AM 11/14 30.34N/81.51W
FORT CAROLINE 49 0654 AM 11/14 30.40N/81.49W
JACKSONVILLE BEACH 50 0500 PM 11/13 30.29N/81.39W
1 S MAYPORT 51 0611 PM 11/13 30.37N/81.41W
MAYPORT NAVSTA 51 1152 PM 11/13 30.40N/81.43W
FLAGLER COUNTY AIRPORT 55 0550 PM 11/13 29.47N/81.21W
PALM COAST 56 0505 PM 11/13 29.58N/81.23W
3 N BUNNELL 56 0629 PM 11/13 29.51N/81.25W
MARINELAND 58 0800 PM 11/13 29.67N/81.22W
WASHINGTON OAKS STATE GARDENS 58 0700 AM 11/14 29.63N/81.21W
2 NNW FLAGLER BEACH 59 0531 PM 11/13 29.50N/81.14W
BELL 4WNW 35 0645 AM 11/14 29.77N/82.92W
6 WNW NEWBERRY 38 0359 AM 11/14 29.67N/82.70W
WATER TREATMEANT PLANT 31 0620 AM 11/14 30.52N/82.94W
MARINE REPORTING STATIONS...
1 WNW MAYPORT 50 0736 AM 11/14 30.40N/81.43W
1 NNE JACKSONVILLE BEACH 52 0404 PM 11/13 30.29N/81.39W
1 NNE SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH 56 0300 PM 11/13 29.86N/81.26W
47 ENE SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH 61 0450 PM 11/13 30.00N/80.50W
ORANGE SPRINGS 2SSW 40 0800 AM 11/14 29.48N/81.97W
OCAL INTL AP - JIM TAYLOR FLD 41 0415 AM 11/14 29.17N/82.22W
3 NNE REDDICK 42 0245 AM 11/14 29.41N/82.17W
3 WNW OCKLAWAHA 42 0703 AM 11/14 29.06N/81.98W
3 E RAINBOW LAKES ESTA 42 0443 AM 11/14 29.15N/82.40W
3 ESE OCALA AIRPORT 44 0423 AM 11/14 29.16N/82.18W
1 E LAKE WEIR 44 0645 AM 11/14 29.02N/81.97W
5 NW SALT SPRINGS 44 0304 AM 11/14 29.40N/81.81W
OCALA 50 0500 PM 11/13 29.08N/82.08W
1 ESE HILLIARD 32 0639 AM 11/14 30.69N/81.91W
4 ESE YULEE 37 1124 PM 11/13 30.62N/81.51W
1 SSE AMELIA CITY 43 0539 AM 11/14 30.57N/81.45W
3 NE YULEE 44 0237 AM 11/14 30.66N/81.54W
FERNANDINA BEACH MUNICIPAL AIR 45 0315 AM 11/14 30.61N/81.46W
1 NW FERNANDINA BEACH 49 0624 AM 11/14 30.67N/81.46W
3 SSW PUTNAM HALL 39 0245 AM 11/14 29.70N/81.98W
5 NW INTERLACHEN 40 0446 AM 11/14 29.67N/81.95W
3 SE WELAKA 44 0645 AM 11/14 29.44N/81.63W
HASTINGS 3 MI WNW 51 0600 PM 11/13 29.75N/81.54W
1 ESE DURBIN 44 0639 AM 11/14 30.08N/81.45W
1 NW FRUIT COVE 45 1241 AM 11/14 30.11N/81.64W
2 E DURBIN 46 0715 AM 11/14 30.08N/81.41W
3 SSE SPUDS 47 0645 AM 11/14 29.69N/81.44W
ST AUGUSTINE LIGHTHOUSE 53 0500 PM 11/13 29.91N/81.31W
1 NW SAINT AUGUSTINE 54 0828 AM 11/14 29.92N/81.33W
ST AUGUSTINE AIRPORT 55 0858 PM 11/13 29.96N/81.34W
CRESCENT BEACH 59 0810 PM 11/13 29.72N/81.23W
3 N HOUSTON 34 1000 PM 11/13 30.30N/82.90W
LIVE OAK WQHL 43 0437 PM 11/13 30.29N/82.97W
LAKE BUTLER 39 0249 AM 11/14 30.02N/82.34W
BAXLEY 5NNW 24 0810 AM 11/14 31.85N/82.38W
4 S PINE GROVE 26 0130 AM 11/14 31.75N/82.44W
4 SW BAXLEY 28 0204 AM 11/14 31.71N/82.39W
BACON COUNTY AIRPORT 29 1153 PM 11/13 31.54N/82.51W
1 W ALMA 34 0630 AM 11/14 31.54N/82.51W
NAHUNTA 6NE 27 0700 AM 11/14 31.27N/81.92W
2 NNW HICKOX 29 1115 PM 11/13 31.18N/82.01W
3 W WOODBINE 31 0845 PM 11/13 30.96N/81.77W
WOODBINE 35 0749 AM 11/14 30.96N/81.71W
2 SSW HIGH POINT 44 0412 AM 11/14 30.92N/81.43W
2 ENE FOLKSTON 33 0904 PM 11/13 30.85N/81.99W
10 SW FOLKSTON 36 0856 PM 11/13 30.74N/82.13W
1 WNW STEVEN FOSTER STATE PARK 37 0701 AM 11/14 30.83N/82.36W
HOMERVILLE 5N 28 0600 AM 11/14 31.08N/82.80W
3 SSW ARGYLE 30 1100 PM 11/13 31.02N/82.66W
PRIDGEN 29 0520 AM 11/14 31.70N/82.92W
4 ESE DOUGLAS 29 1215 AM 11/14 31.49N/82.79W
DOUGLAS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 34 0655 AM 11/14 31.48N/82.86W
5 ESE THALMANN 31 1204 AM 11/14 31.26N/81.61W
4 S BOYS ESTATE 35 0727 PM 11/13 31.27N/81.48W
BRUNSWICK GOLDEN ISLES AIRPORT 36 0655 PM 11/13 31.26N/81.47W
2 SW COUNTRY CLUB ESTATE 39 0615 AM 11/14 31.19N/81.48W
BRUNSWICK COOP 40 1105 PM 11/13 31.17N/81.50W
JEKYLL ISLAND 41 0225 AM 11/14 31.05N/81.41W
MALCOLM MC KINNON AIRPORT 41 0653 AM 11/14 31.15N/81.39W
WAYCROSS 30 0700 AM 11/14 31.25N/82.31W
PATTERSON 31 0800 AM 11/14 31.38N/82.13W
MANOR 27 0800 AM 11/14 31.08N/82.57W
2 W DEENWOOD 31 1204 AM 11/14 31.25N/82.40W
WAYCROSS-WARE COUNTY MUNICIPAL 34 1155 PM 11/13 31.25N/82.40W
JESUP-WAYNE COUNTY AIRPORT 30 0935 PM 11/13 31.55N/81.88W
2 SW ODUM 30 0930 PM 11/13 31.63N/82.05W
The recent cold spell has been enough for the slopes to open at Sugar Mountain, NC:
SUGAR MOUNTAIN SKI RESORT, NORTH CAROLINA. November 13, 2013 - Sugar Mountain Ski Resort in the Appalachian Mountains of Western North Carolina is open Wednesday, November 13th for skiing and snowboarding. "It feels terrific to get the winter season started. A mid-November opening is typical for Sugar Mountain," said Owner & President Gunther Jochl.
Snowmaking began Sunday evening, November 10th and continued until mid-morning on the 11th. A brief warm-up shut snowmaking down for the day. However, the snow machines came back to life early Tuesday morning as temperatures steadily dropped throughout the day. Overnight temperatures settled in the single digits at the summit and mid-teens at the base, creating an ideal snowmaking environment. Snow flurries accompanied the polar express leaving a dusting of natural snow on Sugar Mountain. Snowmaking continues.
Today skiers and snowboarders can expect a 6-24 inch base on a manmade packed powder surface covering the Upper and Lower Flying Mile slopes. The Summit #1 Lift is in operation to the 3/4's station. Lift/slope ticket prices are $30 for a full-day session and $25 for a half-day session. For a real time look at the slopes through the live, go to the streaming web cam.
For more information please call 800-SUGAR-MT or go ** here ** for the latest slope and weather conditions. Historical opening and closing dates as well as recorded annual natural snowfall measurements can be found ** here **.
According to research at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, it's possible that frequent El Nino conditions in the Pacific have played a "significant" role in the global temp. rise:
"Our modeling shows that natural climate cycles explain at least part of the ocean warming we've seen since the 1950s," said Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist in UAH's Earth System Science Center and the new study's lead author. "But we also found that because the globe has had more frequent La Niña cooling events in the past ten or fifteen years, they are canceling out some of the effects of global warming."
The paper detailing this research, "The Role of ENSO in Global Ocean Temperature Changes During 1955-2011 Simulated with a 1D Climate Model," is scheduled for publication in the Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science, and is available online at ** here **.
The results also suggest the world will warm by 1.3 C (about 2.34° F) from a doubling of atmospheric CO2, which is only one-half of the warming expected by most climate researchers.
General circulation climate models — such as those used to forecast global climate change — do not reproduce the tendency toward 30 year periods of stronger El Niño or La Niña activity, as are seen in nature.
Spencer and co-author Dr. Danny Braswell used all of the usual climate modeling forcings — including carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas enrichment — in their study, but also plugged the observed history of El Niño ocean warming and La Niña ocean cooling events into their model to calculate the 61-year change in global ocean temperature averages from the sea surface to a depth of 2,000 meters.
"We used the observed ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) history since the 1950s as a pseudo forcing factor of the model," Spencer said.
When they ran their ocean model without ENSO, they arrived at the same general conclusions as the more complex general circulation climate models. When they added data from past El Niño and La Niña events as only a change in ocean mixing, the model indicated a climate system that is slightly less sensitive to CO2-induced warming than has been believed.
But the biggest change was when the model was allowed to change cloud cover with El Niño and La Niña in the same way as has been observed from satellites. The results suggest that these natural climate cycles change the total amount of energy received from the sun, providing a natural warming and cooling mechanism of the surface and deep ocean on multi-decadal time scales.
"As a result, because as much as 50% of the warming since the 1970s could be attributed to stronger El Niño activity, it suggests that the climate system is only about half as sensitive to increasing CO2 as previously believed", Spencer said.
"Basically, previously it was believed that if we doubled the CO2 in the atmosphere, sea surface temperatures would warm about 2.5 C," Spencer said. That's 4.5° F. "But when we factor in the ENSO warming, we see only a 1.3 C (about 2.3° F) final total warming after the climate system has adjusted to having twice as much CO2."
It was previously known that Pacific Ocean warming and cooling events come and go in roughly 30-year periods of predominance, where El Niño warming events are stronger than La Niño cooling events for approximately 30 years, followed by roughly three decades where the reverse is true.
During the period of this study, cooling events were dominant from the 1950s into the late 1970s. That was followed by a period of strong El Niño warming activity that lasted into the early 2000s. The current phase has seen increased La Niña cooling activity.
Spencer said it is reasonable to suspect that the increased La Niña cooling might be largely responsible for an ongoing "pause" in global warming that has lasted more than a decade. If that is the case, weak warming might be expected to revive when this phase of the El Niño-La Niña cycle shifts back to a warmer El Niño period.
The study was the result of a debate over whether clouds can be part of an active forcing mechanism for global warming, or are just a passive response to temperature change.
"What we found is, to explain the satellite data we had to invoke a change in clouds nine months before the peak of either an El Niño or a La Niña," Spencer said. "When the clouds change, it takes time for that to translate into a temperature change.
"We get the best fit to the observations when we let clouds cause some of the temperature change. These cloud changes are occurring before the temperature starts to respond, so they can't be caused by the temperature changes."
Before an El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event, global cloud cover decreases, allowing more solar energy to reach the Earth's surface and be converted into heat. On the flip side, before a La Niña Pacific Ocean cooling event, cloud cover increases, shading more of the Earth's surface and reflecting an increased amount of solar energy back into space.
While changes in cloud cover intensify the warming or cooling of these ocean events, Spencer and Braswell still found that two-thirds of the sea surface temperature changes during both El Niño and La Niña events are driven by changes in ocean mixing. But the one-third forcing by clouds turns out to be an important component, substantially changing our interpretation of how sensitive the climate system is to CO2 emissions.
Our IT person here at Action News shared ** this link ** with me - satellite & climate data from NASA is now available to everyone on the web.
Our Jacksonville Salvation Army had their Red Kettle kickoff Thu. afternoon at Andrew Jackson H.S. The photo below is Major Thomas McWilliams announcing "start your ringing"! Look for the bell ringers Mon.-Sat. through Christmas Eve day. Action News & Cox radio in Jax will proudly ring the bell Nov. 30th & Dec. 7th -- more on that later. From our Salvation Army:(Jacksonville, FL) Thursday, November 14, will officially kick off The Salvation Army of Northeast Florida’s 2013 Red Kettle Christmas campaign, the oldest annual charitable fundraiser of its kind in the United States. Through Christmas Eve, December 24, the campaign will raise money for people in need right here in our community, providing toys for kids, shelter for the homeless, food for the hungry and countless social service programs year-round.
"The holidays are a time for great traditions, spending time with family and friends, giving thanks for the blessings in your life and remembering those less fortunate," says Major Thomas McWilliams, Area Commander for The Salvation Army of NE FL. Like in years past, The Salvation Army relies on members of the community during the Christmas season through ringing the bell and collecting toys through their annual Angel Tree toy drive. Thanks to your kettle donation in 2012, The Salvation Army distributed over 100,000 toys and gifts to over 7,500 needy children and seniors at Christmas.
From its original beginnings as a fundraiser started by a Salvation Army captain in San Francisco in 1891, the Red Kettle Campaign has grown into one of the most recognizable and important charitable campaigns in the United States. As part of the campaign, Salvation Army staff and volunteers spread out around the First Coast to ring bells daily and solicit spare change donations to the iconic red kettles from holiday shoppers. Last year, the funds helped The Salvation Army provide food, clothing, toys and other assistance to nearly 300,000 people in need in Northeast Florida.
Interesting little historical note (I'm an Abraham Lincoln fan)... next will be 150 years since Lincoln gave his Gettysburg Address. The local paper panned the speech at the time but offered a public apology this week -- better late than never! - click ** here**.