A glorious holiday weekend of weather will now continue through the week ahead. Highs will warm a bit each day & as humidity creeps up, lows will slowly warm too. Comfortable nighttime temps. in the 50s inland will steadily warm into the 60s this week. Highs will in the low to mid 80s through Wed. will reach the upper 80s to low 90s by Thu. & Fri. into the weekend. Only a few isolated showers will occur Thu. through the weekend in the morning near the coast building to widely scattered inland afternoon showers & storms. However, I don't see any widespread rain through at least Sunday.Our next best chance
for heavier, more widespread appears to be setting up for next week. Deep tropical moisture will be pushing north & should enhance showers & t'storms. This also coincides with potential early season tropical development in or near the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. I first touched on this last Wed. Look at the map below which is the Velocity Potential Anomalies. The green area correlates -- in the simplest terms -- to "rising" air (the brown is sinking resulting in less t'storm activity) which coincides with increasing clusters of t'storms & -- sometimes -- can indicate where/when tropical development might occur. The peak of the upward velocities in moving into the E. Pacific & sure enough a disturbance is trying to form just of the coast of Mexico in the far E. Pacific. The sytem's short distance to land will limit development, but the velocity potential anomalies are doing their dirty work. This pattern will spread into the Atlantic Basin -- including the Gulf of Mexico -- during the next 1-2 weeks. Indeed long range global forecast models have been hinting at tropical development in or near the Gulf. As would be expected this far out, models vary a great deal on intensity & especially location of any low pressure system. Anywhere from the far SW Gulf to Fl. would be the best bet at this point. In any case, this will be a situation to watch as "Andrea" could form next week. Whether or not true tropical development does take place, the tropical moisture should manage to overspread the First Coast helping to increase heavy showers & storms.
Speaking of the hurricane season....this week is Hurricane Preparedness Week. Click ** here ** for a breakdown of the week. Monday's topic was storm surge -- click ** here**...click ** here ** to download a free hurricane guide from the NHC.
While our weather is pretty benign for the moment, repeated rounds of severe storms -- including tornadoes & flash flooding -- will hammer the area from Texas to the Midwest much of this week. Click ** here ** for a summary + state-by-state weather info.
Have you seen the "planetary trio" in the western sky after sunset? You have a few more opportunites before the 3 planets of Jupiter (565 million miles away)...Mercury (105 million miles away)....& Venus (150 million miles away). The same planetary conjunction will not happen again until 2021. On Tue., May 28th Jupiter & Venus will be at their closest approach to each other making for a great view in the western sky a little after sunst -- 8:45-11pm or so. The photos below are from Mike Rosset & Carla White. For more info, go to "EarthSky" - click ** here**.