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Rain Slowly Increasing... Still Watching for Possible Tropical Development... NASA Hurricane Explainer Videos

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Updated: 5/31/2013 8:22 pm
*** Fri. evening:Tornadoes moving through Oklahoma City - watch live ** here **.

Tropical moisture continues to slowly increase, so we'll also continue to see widely scattered but briefly heavy showers through the weekend.  Looks like moisture will finally become deep enough to also help develop heavy inland t'storms each afternoon over the weekend -- primarily near & west of I-95 & especially near & west of Highway 301.  Onshore east to southeast winds will continue to be brisk at area beaches through Sunday elevating the rip current risk.  Winds will become more offshore for a few days early next week which will diminish the rip current risk a bit but remember there can be rip currents at anytime anywhere.
Temps. will be toasty with highs in the low 90s inland to upper 80s across metro Jax (I-95 corridor) to low to mid 80s at the beaches.  Radar imagery below courtesy our Jax N.W.S.

The "official" Atlantic hurricane season begins (sigh) Saturday.  As I posted a week ago Wed. (May 22nd), conditions appear to be right for at least some sort of low pressure to develop in the NW Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico the first week of June.  Check out the map below which shows that at least two of the more reliable global forecast models are onboard for low pressure in the Gulf.  The American GFS model develops an elongated of weak low pressure over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico while the European model is farther west & a little stronger.  Last year -- & again so far this year (with the 2 E. Pacific systems) -- the GFS has been pretty darn good at "sniffing" out development while the European has been generally better with ultimate movement & -- in some cases -- intensity.  So I'll stand by potential tropical development in or near the Gulf of Mexico next week.  Whether or not the system develops -- & in either model scenario -- a slug of tropical moisture will sling north across the First Coast & will result in heavy rain at times next week.  First name on this year's Atlantic list, by the way, is "Andrea".

The "Hurricane Preparedness" topic covered by the NHC Thu. was "forecast process" - click ** here **.

NASA has developed a handy & detailed series of hurricane "explainers".  Click on each one below (first is a video, rest are illustrations):
* Dynamics of wind & energy inside a hurricane
* Hurricane's eye is an intense low pressure
* Air spirals inward towards the eye & rapidly upward & outward
* Air picks up energy from the warm ocean water
* Hot towers act like "express elevators"
* Intense vortices in hurricanes
* Updrafts
* Formation of "Hot Towers"

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