Our wetter weather pattern has begun. We'll continue to see daily scattered showers & t'storms -- especially in the afternoon -- much of this week. Onshore east winds will become a little stronger Wed.-Fri. which will have a tendency to push much of the more significant rain more inland vs. the beaches.
Rain generally averaged a quarter to 3/4" but there were a few spots managed 1-2". There was also some small hail in Maxville, San Jose & Flagler Co. The pattern continues to favor pockets of heavy rain & a few strong storms but widespread significant severe storms are not likely. Photos below show the roll cloud/gust front in St. Johns Co. -- from Kim Stott...as well as on the S'side of Jax from Action News phographer Joel Lotz...the 3rd photo is from Action News photographer Jerry Palovick. The roll cloud was on the leading edge of the heavy rain & storms as cooler air (downdrafts) pushed out ahead of the storms. The 4th pic is from Shawn Leary & shows storms in the distance west of Jax...pic #5 is from Scott Gibbs & shows the rain falling in Arlington followed by a nighttime shot of distant lightning over the Atlantic east of St. Augustine as a squall line developed near the gulf stream Mon. evening.
Last Thu. I posted about a cut-off low that was forecast to develop this week. No real change in that thinking early this week but there is still a great deal of variance in location. The GFS model has been the most inconsistent & now shows the upper low gradually meandering over the Southeast U.S. & very near the First Coast by early next week. The European model has shown more consistency & is indicating the cut-off lifting out far to the north eventually moving into the Great Lakes. The difference is near 1,000 miles! For now I'm leaning toward the European which still keeps us relatively wet through Fri. (onshore winds, weak front & upper level weather disturbances) but then drier for the weekend as the cut-off low lifts well to the north. If the GFS ends up more accurate, however, then more significant rain would occur along with possible low pressure nearby. Stay tuned as all will depend on how the blocking pattern ("omega" block because it resembles the greek letter omega) sets up, how strong the block is & how long the block persists.
Fl. Fish & Wildlife is concerned about 3 dolphins that are entangled in fishing net, rope or some other kind of material. See the photo below.....sighting have included Blount Island, Matthews Bridge & St. Augustine. If you see a dolphin that's entangled, please call Fl. Fish & Wildlife: 1-888-404-3922.