Forecast focus continues to be on:
(1) a "lazy" front that will be over or near the First Coast into Sat.
(2) a strong storm system that will move across the Southeast U.S. Sat.-Sun.
First for #1:
a cool front will move across NE Fl. then become stationary somewhere between Highway 16 & I-4 south of Jax. This front will usher in cooler air Fri. with a wind shift to the northeast & also help to focus bands of showers & isolated t'storms. Best coverage should be south of I-10 where a few downpours will be possible. The front
will slowly work back to the north Sat. producing additional showers & a few t'storms near & to its north. Most of the showers & storms should shift into Ga. by later
in the day leaving NE Fl. in the warm, relatively rain-free sector.
#2: The weekend storm system will be strong but not a "mega" storm. Forecast models have slowed some bringing the cold front through the First Coast midday Sun. rather than overnight Sat. into early Sun. The surface low looks to be a littler farther north & west. All this would add up to strong storms over SE Ga. Sat. afternoon & evening....a break later Sat. night then showers & storms with the cold front sweeping west to east across NE Fl./SE Ga. Sun. morning possibly not exiting into the Atlantic until early afternoon. If all this turns out to be accurate, then very heavy rain axis would continue to be to the north & west as would be the worst of the severe storms (potentially significant outbreak of tornadoes, damaging winds & hail). The squall line in advance of the cold front Sun. could produce strong winds across the First Coast. I should emphasize that the exact track & positioning of the surface low & fronts are far from certain so check back for updates.
Development farther to the south would increase our rainfall & severe weather...the opposite should there be a shift to the north.
The National Hurricane Center has completed & finalized their 2011 track map & summary of each & every Atlantic tropical cyclone -- click here.
A team of explorers is currently working through the Fl. Wildlife Corridor:
"Florida Wildlife Corridor Expedition. From January 17 through April 25, 2012, a team of explorers including photographer Carlton Ward Jr, cinematographer Elam Stoltzfus, bear biologist Joe Guthrie and conservationist Mallory Lykes Dimmitt, set out to trek 1000 miles in 100 days to showcase the opportunity to protect a connected corridror of natural lands and waters throughout peninsular Florida for the benefit of wildlife and people."
See the map below....click here for their website.
From the USGS Newsroom:
Scientists Measure Carbon And Mercury Coming Out Of South Florida Mangroves
HOMESTEAD, Fla. -- For the first time, scientists have measured the amount of dissolved organic carbon and mercury moving from a southwest Florida mangrove swamp via tides to coastal waters. The scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey discovered that a large amount of mercury and methylmercury–the form of mercury that is most toxic and the form that accumulates in fish–flows from mangroves into the Gulf of Mexico.
According to the South Florida Water Management District, over 50 species of fish in Florida's coastal waters have elevated concentrations of mercury, and human health advisories regarding consumption have been issued by the Florida Department of Health for several fish species in Florida coastal marine areas. A greater understanding of the sources and environmental pathways resulting in these elevated methylmercury concentrations in fish will help environmental managers, policy makers, and regulators lower human and wildlife mercury exposure.
"Previous USGS research has revealed that these swamps transform mercury to its toxic methylmercury form far from the coal-burning plants that are the original source of the pollution," said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. "Now we are learning that the threat to wildlife and human health does not stop there, but is carried out to sea on the ebb tide."
Scientists pioneered a new high-frequency measurement method to measure dissolved organic carbon, mercury and methylmercury in an extremely complex tidal estuarine environment. The study originated from the need to measure the flux of dissolved organic carbon, but scientists realized that they could simultaneously measure mercury and methylmercury using the same techniques. Previous USGS research in the Everglades has shown that methylmercury and mercury bind to dissolved organic carbon.
Study results revealed that mercury from the mangroves could account for over 90% of the methylmercury and almost half the total mercury supply to the near-shore coastal waters of southwestern Florida. The study's findings represent an important first step in identifying and quantifying a significant source of mercury and methylmercury for coastal fish in southwest Florida-Gulf of Mexico region. The findings are published in the journal Environmental Science & Technology.
Although almost all of the mercury entering the Gulf of Mexico originates from the atmosphere, it is not understood how or where this mercury undergoes the necessary conversion to its more toxic form, methylmercury. Scientists do not understand the relative contribution, but generally agree that the conversion to methylmercury occurs in the following three areas:
in the landscape, where it could be flushed into coastal areas by runoff and tidal pumping;
in the estuarine zones, which in southwest Florida often contain mangroves, where it could be flushed into the coastal areas by the tides; or,
in the deep open waters and/or bottom sediments of the Gulf of Mexico.
Until now, the amount of methylmercury coming from estuarine mangrove zones into the coastal areas was unknown because making accurate measurements of this type is extremely challenging. The tide waters that flow in and out of the estuary twice a day must be measured in addition to the constantly changing dissolved organic carbon, mercury, and methylmercury concentrations that result.
"Once we understand where the mercury is being methylated, and how much methylmercury is coming from various environments, resource managers, regulators, and decision makers will be better able to anticipate how the Gulf of Mexico will respond to reductions in mercury loads. It's a very important start that we at least have one of the rivers, the Shark River, flowing into the Gulf of Mexico, quantified as to how much mercury, methylmercury and dissolved organic carbon, is flowing into the gulf," said USGS researcher David Krabbenhoft.
Researchers believe that a relatively unique combination of circumstances result in the large amounts of methylmercury they measured flowing from mangroves into the coastal ocean. Mangroves forests capture gaseous mercury from the air through their leaves and drop them into the brackish swamp waters, where methylmercury is produced in the presence of seawater sulfate.
"Measuring the amount of mercury that mangrove swamps contribute to coastal waters will help us understand and model the sources of mercury that enter the food web," said lead researcher Brian Bergamaschi with the USGS.
This study is the work of scientists from the USGS, Florida Gulf Coast University, and the State of Florida. The high-frequency dissolved organic carbon measurement methodology was developed for a previous study in San Francisco Bay.
The USGS has studied mercury in the Everglades since 1994. Previous USGS research discovered that mercury in the Everglades was coming from atmospheric releases and deposition, and not from natural land sources such as rocks. They also found that the formation of methylmercury in the Everglades is strongly influenced by land and water uses, including the delivery of sulfate from up-gradient agricultural lands. This study represents a significant contribution to the knowledge about the risks of mercury exposure in south Florida, but additional studies are necessary to better understand how mercury accumulates in coastal fish.
Click here for more info.
