Finally at least a somewhat drier stretch. There will still be at least a few showers & storms the next few days but heavier rain will be more scattered & of shorter duration. Temps. will respond to the brighter skies by reaching the upper 80s to low 90s.
All eyes on "Isaac", of course. For updated info., check out "Talking the Tropics With Mike" - click here.
** Forecast models have generally trended west which is of little surprise given the slow organization & therefore a more shallow cyclone for the time being. The fast movement also implies no sudden turn to the north for now.
** The range on the models Wed. evening is from near or just east of New Orleans on the European model.....to not far from Brunswick, Ga. on the Canadian model. Believe it or not, this spread is not as great as past days. A number of models take the storm into Fl. early next week, but the GFS has been remarkably consistent & has a pretty good hurricane season so far. The GFS takes the storm into the far Eastern Gulf or very near the Fl. west coast for several model runs in a row. Overall the models have -- as a whole -- generally shifted west. I believe near or west of Fl. is more likely than east. Check out of the band of clouds in the IR satellite below stretching across the Gulf to Fl. into the W. Atlantic. Those clouds (convection) represent the "weakness" in the atmosphere that should nudge & pull "Isaac" northward.
** The storm seems destined for Fl. &/or the Eastern Gulf coast late in the weekend into next week
** Any local effects are difficult to determine at this point, but the First Coast would at least potentially be line for heavy rain. All hingest on location, intensity & structure of the storm early next week.
** An interesting possible teleconnection can sometimes be used by observing the W. Pacific. There are twin typhoons. -- Intense typhoon "Tembin" is expected to hit Southern Taiwan Thu.-Thu. night then slow & do a doughnut. A second typhoon -- "Bolaven" is to the storm's east & is forecast to steadily march northwest & move south of Japan eventually into China.
In the Atlantic Basin...."Isaac" could end up being a slow moving storm in the long run & become erratic next week as steering currents collapse or at least become weaker...while t.d. #10 could become "Joyce" & gradually turn more northwest over the open Atlantic in the long run but then sharply northeast (though early in the game on that one).
** NOAA will start using a G4 jet Thu. to sample the atmosphere in, over & near "Isaac". This data will be put into the analysis of forecast models. Sometimes this new data will cause a bit of a "hiccup" in the models until the data is consistently inputted. But in the long run the real-time analysis provided by the plane will hopefully lead to a better track, more consistent track forecast.
** Yet another strong wave is coming off the coast of Africa & some forecast models show this not too far from the Bahamas in 10 days or so.
Metro PCS offers these tips on keeping your cell phone charged during storms:
· Choose texting over dialing: Text with family and friends and limit calls to emergencies to save the battery life. “Keeping multiple browser windows open can significantly drain battery power,” says Möller.
· Keep key numbers handy: Program emergency phone numbers in your phone, including local police, fire department, insurance providers, power companies, friends and family. “Make sure these numbers are labeled under names that younger family members will recognize to make for easy, quick calling,” Möller says.
· Have a back-up: Make sure back-up power devices are available at all times, such as a car charger.
· Charge it: Make sure you keep cell phone batteries fully charged well before warnings are issued.
Sent to our Action News APP......"Isaac" not invited to a Sat. night party: