Brief update: all rain & storms sweeping off to the east & south by Tue. afternoon. A chance to dry out now with a breezy but partly to mostly sunny Tue. afternoon rush hour. A couple of nice days to follow.
Quite the swing in weather the last few days as we've suddenly gone wet, especially across the Northern two-thirds of the First Coast. The rain & storm threat will continue through early afternoon Tue. then all eyes focus on an arctic surge that will cause temps. to plunge for the weekend. So let's take this step-by-step:** First
....the current storm system. Low pressure will intensify & move a warm front north into Carolina's Tue. as the surface low moves into the Ohio Valley. So the day will start out very warm & muggy with temps. in the 60s to around 70 early warming quickly well into the 70s. A couple of bands of showers & storms should develop near & ahead of the cold front with individual cells moving northeast while the entire area shifts east/southeast. Strong winds & heavy rain may accompany the storms with hail & an isolated tornado possible but not a particlarly high threat as it appears now. There are some indications that there could be a split in the strongest storms with heavy rain/severe weather near the warm front well to the north & storms over Central/South Fl. where the warmest temps. & highest instability will reside. Still...we should manage at least scattered showers & storms. If the "split" doesn't happen then the severe threat
will be higher with rain even more widespread. The cool front will end the rain & storm threat from west to east through the afternoon.** Wed. & Thu.
will be beautiful days though a bit breezy. Highs Wed. will reach the 70s & upper 60s to low 70s Thu.** A strong cold front
will plow through the area Fri.-Sat. bringing an unseasonable surge of arctic air. It doesn't look like there will be much precipitation (yes -- I've been told of the rumors of "snow"!) as the air will be dry & most rain should end suppressed to the south. A brisk wind should keep temps. from truly bottoming out early Sun. yet still approach or even reach freezing inland. The coldest night might end up being Sun. night/early Mon. when winds will slacken, & we could have some 20s well inland. All the more reason for the "Gardener's Alert" I alluded to last week.As for the past
....very heavy rain set up over the weekend into early this week pretty much as expected with parts of SE Ga. likely to end up with more than half a foot of rain in just a few days. As much as 2-5" will fall along the I-10 corridor....& generally 1.5" or less south & southwest of Jax.
JIA set a daily rainfall record Mon. of 3.19". That's right at the avg. Feb. -- for the entire month
! -- rainfall & easily broke the daily record for Feb. 25th of 1.77" set in 1960. The 3.19" is tied for the 4th highest one-day Feb. total going back to 1871 (4.93" is #1 followed by 3.68" then 3.28"). Even more telling....the 3.19" is more
rain than the entire period from before Christmas -- going back to Dec. 13th!
So the rain is a good thing though it's been an awful lot in a short period of time. We also had some severe weather -- strong winds & especially hail. Lots of reports over the North half or so of Duval Co. of hail ranging in size from peas to golfballs. The photo below is hail at Dunn & I-295 from Gary Roberts. Click ** here
** for video of hail in Glen St. Mary from Bob Brookens....click ** here
** to go to my Facebook fan page to see hail video from Tom & Lisa Deems on Trout River Blvd. & hail & wind on the Westside of Jax from Joyce Isabell. Check out the photo below the hail pic from Andy Elwell, Orange Park -- that a rainfall rate of 9"/hour!! The total in his gauge for the day was 2.99". Some other rainfall:
-- East of Dinsmore....4.22"
-- Arlington... 4", officially Craig Field...1.65"
-- Trout River...3.08"
-- Glen St. Mary...2.85"...since Sat: 4.06"
-- St. Simons Island...2.44"
-- Waycross: 2.4"...since Fri.: 5.5"
-- Fleming Island...1.40"
-- Neptune Beach...1.31"
-- St. Augustine...0.10"
The first photo below is from our Skycam Network at Jax Beach/Quality Inn looking north -- a classic shelf cloud early Mon. afternoon. The second photo is a roll cloud (gust front) taken by Noel McLaren, Action News reporter.
Please send your storm photos/video & reports! Click ** here ** to send First Alert weather photos &/or video. You can send storm reports & rainfall measurements to email@example.com.
Radar imagery below courtesy our Jax N.W.S.: