An active & busy weather day today for metro Jax, NE Fl. & SE Ga. A large complex of storm early today is over Georgia extending across the Fl. Panhandle into the NE Gulf. Severe weather has been occurring with this activity & will continue through the day. Other much more isolated storms are developing out ahead of this complex from the West Fl. Coast near & north of Tampa to near Jax. These storms could also quickly become severe & will have to be monitored for tornado potential. It appears that the large t'storm complex will help reinforce what is essentially a warm front on its southern edge. This boundary will be conducive for tornadic t'storms. Upper levels of the atmosphere are quite cool so hail will occur with some of the strongest storms. There already have been reports in the Panhandle of hail 1"+. A strong upper level jet will also lead to potentially damaging winds with any t'storms that develop.
There won't be a lot of sun today so temps. won't get real warm. Still...enough sun at times from near I-10 & south to push afternoon temps. into the 70s. The relative lack of instability (lower temps.) will be somewhat of an obstacle today but a very strong upper level disturbance moving into the SE U.S. combined with upper diffluence (winds spreading apart at 15,000-30,000 feet up) will help compensate for the lower surface temps.
The severe threat by this evening should transition into more of a heavy rain threat after sunset tonight. Rainfall will average 1-2" but locally higher amounts will occur leading to a flooding threat. The system will clear out of the area Friday.
So today:
*** A few scattered heavy showers & t'storms through early afternoon will become numerous/widespread.
*** Any storms that develop will have the potential to become severe with damaging winds, large hail & isolated tornadoes.
*** Very heavy rain will fall at times with localized flooding -- certainly some standing water at times on highways along with low visibility.
*** Heavy rain threat continues into tonight
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