Just a quick heads-up as the First Coast heads into a stormy pattern for the upcoming work week. The set-up is as follows:
(1) increasing northwest flow aloft (upper level trough developing over the Eastern U.S.)
(2) a frontal boundary sagging south into the area
(3) hot, humid air building over Fl.
The first round of storms Mon. appears to be very late in the day for SE Georgia & mostly in the evening or overnight for metro Jax/NE Fl. The caveat for this timeline, however, is an outflow boundary that could be pushed S & E into the area ahead of the main area of storms. But - for the moment - it appears the primary threat will be Waycross, Blackshear & Homerville late in the day spreading SE in the evening. Storms will be capable of strong winds & hail.
Tue. through Thu. are potentially the most stormy days as the front will be nearby with high humidity & occasional upper level disturbances moving SE in the flow aloft. Such a setup will produce rain & storms but timing much in advance will be difficult at best due to fast-moving disturbances, outflow boundaries & the potential for widespread cloud cover depending on how convection evolves each day.
In any case....Mon. appears to be dry & very hot for most of the day with an eye on storm development/movement over Al./Ga. Tue.-Thu will be stormy at times & could even include overnight storm development. There is a fairly high chance for severe storms from time to time with damaging winds & hail the primary threats though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Another concern will be the potential for torrential rain with local flooding a real possibility given the heavy rain of the past week resulting in saturated soil + the potential for repeated rounds of heavy rain & storms.