A hot, humid week ahead with widely scattered to scattered afternoon storms. In other words, a typical mid to late July weather pattern. Upper level winds will become from the west or northwest so storm movement will gradually become more eastward which will allow at least a few storms to make it all the way to the coast.
Afternoon highs will be in the 90s inland, near or a bit above 90 at the beaches.
The tropics remain quiet. As expected, the fast start ('D' [Debby] by June 23rd) did not sustain itself. The image below from CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies) shows a huge area of mid & upper level (generally synonomous with dry air) over the Central Atlantic. A fairly healthy tropical wave is coming off the coast of Africa but will likley struggle against the dry air. The GFS model does not develop this wave at all while the European shows some weak development about the middle of next week roughly half way across the Atlantic. The map below -- Velocity Potential Anomalies -- may be of some help showing a large area of "sinking" air across the Atlantic Basin. "Upward" motion (upper level divergence) extends across parts of the Pacific Basin, especially the W. Pacific. The upward motion often correlates well with an increase in t'storm activity & even tropical cyclone development. It would appear the best chance for a decrease in the dry mid & upper level air + a switch to "upward motion" might occur between approximately Aug. 5th & 15th which could equate to at least some tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. So
this will be something to keep an eye on.
Sharks in our coastal waters. Check out the photos below.....the first one -- a Blacktip shark -- was sent to me late Sat. & was caught from shore at Guana Beach. The second photo was sent by Martina Barrington from Fleming Island -- a large shark's tooth found at the Mayport Base beach.
