Wow....what a warm start to our weekend with highs well into the 70s Sat. A little cooler Sun. with some cloud cover, a few sprinkles & a little more easterly surface wind. The overall pattern remains far above avg. through Fri. with a few minor dips here & there (Sun. & Tue.). Still looking at a potentially wetter pattern very late in the month/early Feb. but a long ways out (obviously).
From NASA:
1. The global average surface temperature in 2011 was the 9th warmest since 1880, according to NASA scientists.
2. The average temperature in 2011 was 0.92 degrees F warmer than the mid-20th century baseline.
Check out the interesting 25 sec. video from 1884 to 2011 -- click here (quickTime movie).
Earth Gauge: Weather and Seasons Shape Estuaries
Estuaries may seem permanent and unchanging, but they are not. Weather patterns and seasonal cycles shape and affect estuaries. Winter storms and winds lash the coasts, raising waves that stir up and mix nutrients, silt and decaying organic matter in estuaries. Large storm waves carry a lot of energy that is released when the waves hit the coast, crashing into barrier islands, sandbars and even open shores. Really strong waves change coastlines, wash sediments and nutrients out to sea and change the balance of salt and freshwater that characterizes estuaries.
Tip: Winter is a great time to beachcomb. The same waves and tides that pound our shorelines also deposit shells, driftwood, sea urchins, beach glass and even remains of old shipwrecks. Advanced beachcombers, especially along the Atlantic coast, even bring metal detectors, as coins and metal relics from times past are often washed ashore. Remember to dress warmly, though. Winter air temperatures are frequently colder near the ocean and coastal winds can make you feel even chillier.
This information is provided by Restore America’s Estuaries. Learn more ** here **.
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Climate Fact: AO, ENSO and Your Winter Weather
Northern Florida Winter Outlook: The Northern Florida region has a 33 to 40 percent chance of experiencing well above normal winter temperatures and a greater than 50 percent chance of receiving well below normal precipitation levels. “Well above” and “well below” normal are defined by NOAA as conditions falling into the top or bottom third of climate conditions observed during the 1980 to 2010 period.
Two large scale circulation patterns, the Arctic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, have proven useful for predicting winter weather in different areas of the United States.
AO: The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the difference in atmospheric pressure between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Upper-atmospheric westerly winds and mid-latitude winter storms are stronger during “positive phases” of the AO (when the pressure difference is greater), and these stronger winds serve as a “blocking” mechanism that keeps the frigid Arctic air in the Arctic instead of invading many midlatitude areas, particularly the Eastern United States, leading to milder winter temperatures there. Negative phases work the opposite way, with less blocking and a colder eastern United States.
So far, the Arctic Oscillation has favored mild winter temperatures in the Eastern United States -- click here.
Useful Climate Analogy: The Arctic Oscillation and Your Refrigerator Door. Learn more ** here **.
ENSO: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a periodic shift in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature distributions. During cool La Niña phases, the northern hemisphere storm track tends to move farther north, leading to a wetter northern tier of the United States – particularly a wetter Northwest – and a drier southern tier. El Niño phases bring relatively the opposite conditions.
NOAA’s Winter Weather Outlook - click here - gives different regional probabilities for warmer/colder or wetter/drier conditions. Variation in this outlook is driven largely by differences in the state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
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Climate in the News: “New Cores from Glacier in Eastern European Alps May Yield New Climate Clues.” – ScienceDaily, January 9, 2012 – Two 250-foot long ice cores taken from a glacier in northeastern Italy are providing insights into how recent climate shifts affected that part of Europe.
Have a great & safe weekend!
