Pretty hefty upper level low pressure system should bring some extra umph to showers Wed. along with possibly a few t'storms. The water vapor satellite loop below nicely shows the spin of the low near the east coast of Fl. Where east-west rain bands can become established, there will be locally heavy rain. The upper low will eventually get stretched out northeast-southwest as the system gets caught up in an upper level trough that will move into the Northeast U.S., so the effects from the upper low will diminish later Thu.
Radar imagery below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:
The tropics are -- as expected -- becoming more active. 4 areas to watch starting with what's out there now:
(1) "Gabrielle" regenerated early Tue. The tropical cyclone gave Bermuda a blow late Tue. & will move north over the open Atlantic taking a swipe at Newfoundland by the weekend. No impact on the First Coast......
(2) "Humberto" is quite possibly going to become our first Atlantic hurricane of the season. This cyclone took a sharp turn to the north the last couple days but is about to take a sharp left (west) turn. "Humberto" will enter a high shear zone by late week which should cause weakening but then possibly restrengthen next week if it survives the shear. In the end, "Humberto" should turn back north & eventually either die over the N. Atlantic or become absorbed by an upper level trough.
(3) A tropical wave is moving from the Caribbean over the Yucatan Peninsula & will continue northwest into the Bay of Campeche & far Western Gulf of Mexico. Development is possible once the system moves over the warm water. Depending on how long this system can parallel the Mexican coast, this wave could pretty quickly strengthen but no impact on the First Coast or any of Fl.
(4) Another area to watch in the long range -- roughly 1-2 weeks away(!) -- will be the SW Atlantic, Northern Caribbean or Easter Gulf. This potential set-up involves a strong surface high that will move into the Northern Atlantic. There's always a balance in nature, & the weather is not different. So high pressure across the N. Atlantic will induce low pressure across or near the S. Atlantic. This is a potential classic fall set-up for tropical development in the SW Atlantic or nearby areas.
Click ** here ** -- "Talking the Tropics With Mike".
We're at the peak of the hurricane season now (Sept. 10th). Image below from the NHC.
It was 49 years ago Tue. -- Sept. 10th -- when hurricane "Dora" slammed the First Coast making landfall just north of St. Augustine. This was a classic long track Cape Verde hurricane that made the rare hit on Northeast Fl. from the east. Within a matter of days, the First Coast was visited by a hurricane & declared a federal disaster area... President Lyndon B. Johnson made a personal assessment... & the Beatles played on! From viewer Linda Moniz: