First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 10:04 PM on 4/24, issued at 10:04 PM Blackshear, GA | Bristol, GA | Mershon, GA | Millwood, GA

Weekend Front... Check of the Tropics... Kids Back to School Too Early(!)

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Updated: 8/21/2013 11:38 pm
Onshore winds continue to pull lots of moisture off the Atlantic “flinging” showers onshore from the Atlantic along with a few t’storms.  An upper level disturbance Wed. gave rain & storms some extra vigor, but it’ll be back to widely scattered Thu. before picking up some Fri. & especially Sat.  A weak cool front will approach the area from the north this weekend – rather unusual for Aug.  As this front moves in, showers & storms will increase Sat. into Sun. though the front might get far enough by Sun. to push much of the rain to near & south of I-10 while SE Ga. finally catches a break from the recent very wet weather.  Radar imagery below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District.

The tropics continue to be very quiet as the Atlantic Basin is full of shear & dry mid/upper level air.  The water vapor image below shows the dry air – in the dark & rust-colored areas.

But last week I mentioned the MJO looked like it was getting way to kick in which could lead to an increase in tropical activity in the Atlantic.  Velocity potential anomalies are related & can give us a clue to when there might be an uptick in tropical cyclones.  The map below shows upward vertical velocities (rising air) in the green area – look how nicely this correlates with thunderstorm clusters that can be seen in IR satellite imagery superimposed on the map.  The brown lines represent sinking air which is not as conducive to convection & tropical development.  The large area of intense positive vertical velocities over the W. Pacific will gradually spread eastward, & we're already seeing an increase in the vertical velocities over the Central & E. Pacific.  We should see the first hints of tropical development in the E. Pacific during the next week then eventually into the Atlantic Basin.  We’re probably looking at about the end of Aug. & first 1-2 weeks or so of Sept. when the Atlantic will become more active.

Staying on the topic of the tropics...NASA has just started the Global Hawk hurricane research project which will continue through Sept. 20th.  Click ** here ** to follow Global Hawk missions....click ** here ** for general info.

My wife passed along to me an article  -- "Endless Summer" by Rick Bragg from her Southern Journal magazine.  It pretty much sums up my thoughts of my kids already being back in school – click ** here **.

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