A powerhouse storm (low pressure) is near & north of the Great Lakes. Despite being so far north of the First Coast, the low pressure will have enough strength to drive a cold front through the local area Fri. afternoon & evening. In advance of this front, a band of heavy showers & storms will extend from Ga. into the Fl. Panhandle early in the day. The line will march eastward reaching Jax early to mid afternoon. Before the rain arrives, temps. will be warm -- into the 70s -- with gusty winds from the southwest. The line of showers & imbedded t'storms will produce gusty winds then a generally brief period of heavy rain. An isolated severe storm is possible but overall the storms should not be as strong upon reaching the First Coast.
Most of the rain should be well to the south & east by late in the day.
It still looks like the front will sit across Central Fl. Sat. & Northern Fl. Sunday. Strong upper level southwest flow will overide the cooler air across the First Coast & -- when combined with weak upper level disturbanes -- scattered showers & areas of light rain will develop. It appears most of Sat. -- especially in the morning -- will be dry but a stronger disturbance Sunday should increase rainfall.
So a lot going on this weekend:
(1) "El Cheapo" Sheepshead fishing tournament Sat. morning: partly to mostly cloudy, NE breeze, temps. 55-60.
(2) Monster Jam Sat. evening: mostly cloudy, cool, a bit of light rain/drizzle. Temps. in the 60s.
(3) 26.2 With Donna Sun. morning: Mostly cloudy, some drizzle possible, NE breeze, temps. 55-60.
(4) Daytona 500 Sun. afternoon: Mostly cloudy, some light rain, east breeze, temps. in the 60s.
I mentioned the big winter storm centered near & north of the Great Lakes. Typically a storm at that latitude & longitude would create tremendous lake effect snow squalls (cold air blowing over the relatively mild water) but not so much this time around because the Great Lakes are mostly frozen over. Click ** here ** to go to the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. Ice charts below for each Great Lake: