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A Few Tropical Waves

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Updated: 8/31/2013 1:32 pm
A pair of weak tropical waves:

- over the Western Caribbean moving W/NW.  There might be some long term potential with this wave depending on any interaction with Central American or the Yucatan Peninsula.
- Approaching the Lesser Antilles.  This is another one that might have some long term potential though few long range global forecast models are very gun-ho at this point.

The Gulf is very quiet with little even in the way of clouds save for some t'storm activity between New Orleans & the Fl. Big Bend in the vicinity of an old surface trough of low pressure....

The area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) continues to gradually shrink over the Central Atlantic, but it's shear (see next paragraph & map) that's still largely prohibitive for much significant tropical development.

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- exceeding 20 knots over parts of the Gulf of Mexico... 30+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 40+ knots over the Central Atlantic.  Until & unless the shear relaxes, tropical cyclones will generally struggle in such an environment.

Nothing impressive coming off the coast of Africa.  The Cape Verde season would usually just about be in full swing this time of year.  

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