Bye-bye "Beryl"! The NHC issued their last advisory late Wed., May 30th. The "official" 2012 hurricane season gets underway Fri., June 1st.
So....how 'bout a little Beryl "debrief"?:
I'll begin with the forecast models. These days there are literally dozens. I'll choose from about 5 that I typically use (not including "consensus" or ensemble): (all forecasts from Sat. morning, 12Z [0800] model run)...reality was Jax Beach @ 12:10am Mon., 05/28 - ~994mb though "official" call so far from the NHC is 992mb
** GFS (American model) -- had landfall at 6-7pm Sun., Ponte Vedra - 1006mb
** EUROPEAN -- landfall 5-6am Mon., St. Marys, Ga. - 996mb
** NAM (American mesoscale) -- landfall 7-9am Sun. - 1012mb open wave
** NOGAPS (Navy model) -- landfall 3-4pm Sun. @ Jax - 1010mb transitioning to open wave
** CANADIAN -- landfall 3-4pm Sun. @ St. Marys - 1011mb
I also typically use the UKMET but chose not to for this storm. The HWRF & GFDL models specifically developed for tropical cyclones look to be struggling yet again.
So....from a strength standpoint, the EURO wins hands down -- in the short term. However, the EURO did not do well at all in the longer range -- 4-7 days out showing either little development or too far to the east. Was a little too slow on landfall.
The GFS was too weak but did an excellent job on pinpointing development & pretty darn good job on track. A little too fast but was hinting for many days -- up to nearly 2 weeks -- on tropical development.
The NOGAPS did well with storm #1 - "Alberto" but was pretty lost on "Beryl" -- way too weak & way too fast.
The CANADIAN was similar -- too weak, too fast + too far north.
The NAM did some flip-flopping but in the 12Z Sat. model run, it was of little use -- extremely fast with landfall & way too weak.
Studying the model performances can help when forecasting future development through the hurricane season.
Some general Beryl "nuggets":
* Peak measured wind gust in the viewing area: 73 mph at Mayport Sun. evening ... 58 mph at Arlington (Craig Field)....60 mph at NAS Jax...57 mph at JIA
* Rainfall has averaged 3-6" but some places have had as much as 7+" (see the First Alert Doppler HD estimates below)
JIA: 5.73" including 2.83" Tue., a daily record for May 29th (2.65"/1972)
Southside, Jax: 5.15"
Arlington: 4.52"
Fleming Island: 6"
Waycross: 4"
Folkston: 4.75"
Dixie Union, Ga.: 3.5"
St. Simons Isl: 3.31"
* Seas & surf are calming down -- sea/surf & beaches become a much more pleasant place again Wed.-Fri. But beware of little "canyons" nearshore carved by the crashing waves of past days.
* "Beryl" is the first landfalling May tropical cyclone on our (NE Fl./SE Ga.) soil -- & earliest landfalling storm ever -- going back to 1851
* First direct landfall of a tropical cyclone since "Tammy", Oct. 2005 at Mayport (weak storm that did dump 6"+ rain near the coast but little wind or any other serious weather hazards)
* This is the first time since 1887 that 2 named storms have developed in the Atlantic Basin in the month of May
* This year is the first year ever that a preseason named storm developed in the same year in both the Atlantic Basin & E. Pacific Basin
* This is the first year ever that 4 named storms have occurred before June 1 in both the Atlantic & E. Pacific Basin
Lots of enquiring minds since the weekend.....here's a sample of some of the most frequently asked questions followed by my answer:
1) do 2 preseason storms mean a busy hurricane season?
No - not necessarily. In fact, there are hints of a possible El Nino later in the year. If an El Nino develops, the last part of the season could be cut short. A quick start to the season was not too surprising. The sea surface temps. -- especially closer to the coast (where both "Alberto" & "Beryl" developed -- are unusually warm unusually early....the La Nina is -- though weak -- is still evident....some forecast models hinted at develop as far back as May 12-14th. If one looks at the positive vertical velocity anomalies, there was an overwhelming signal that we could have development late in May (see blog post from Thu., May 24th).
2) if "Beryl" had 70 mph sustained winds, why didn't we have 70 mph winds?
those 70 mph winds were measured using dropsondes east of the center (by 50+ miles) over open water & estimated at the surface. Given the relatively unorganized nature of the storm + the fact that the First Coast would first get hit by the west side of the storm, so it would be weakening by the east side moved overhead....all added up to sustained winds far less than advisory sustained winds determined by hurricane hunter aircraft. We also have to consider the effect of friction over land which usually serves to reduce winds upon landfall. I took this into account for my forecasts all the way into Sun .night.
3) is the busy early season caused by global warming?
NO. In fact, data indicates that global tropical cyclone numbers are down over the past 15-20 yrs. or so.
4) why did the winds calm down as "Beryl" moved overhead?
the center of tropical cyclones have a lack of wind (eye in a hurricane) due to upward motion through the center of the storm which then rapidly drops to the ground around the center helping cause the high winds outside of the center/eye.
5) why were the strongest winds at the coast & in Nassau Co.?
at the coast because the east winds were coming directly off the ocean & not impeded much yet by friction. In Nassau Co. because of where landfall occurred. Since the storm was not tightly wound, the highest winds were not very near the center (like hurricane & the eyewall) but rather somewhat removed to the north/northeast. This quadrant does typically have the strongest winds & greatest storm surge but in "Beryl" the highest was 20-40 miles north of the center because of the storm's structure. I should also mention that the far west side of Jax & areas west & south did not get as strong of winds because they were in the weaker south & west quadrants.
6) what caused "Beryl" to turn around & now head back out to sea?
The jet stream is now the steering mechanism for "Beryl". As an upper level trough moves into the Eastern Ohio Valley & eventually Eastern U.S. dragging a surface cold front into the S.E. U.S., the upper level winds will "carry" the trop. cyclone east & northeast. Conversely....an upper level ridge built over the S.E. U.S. over the weekend which steered "Beryl" southwest then west from the Atlantic.
7) when did we last have a May tropical storm hit our coast?
NEVER
8) when did we last have a named storm make landfall on our coast?
"Tammy" - Oct., 2005 ("Fay" made landfall in Flagler County but did cause widespread flooding across the First Coast as well as a few tornadoes).
9) how many preseason storms have formed in the Atlantic?
26 going back to 1851 (1 every 6 years)
10) why did the Weather Channel & some other media outlets predict 80 mph winds & stronger which never happened?
I'm not sure on that one...I can only speculate. I'm guessing they didn't take into account the friction of land & the fact that the 70 mph winds were well east of the center. I'm hoping there wasn't an attempt to hype the storm. I will say the NHC & our Jax N.W.S. did a good job on "Beryl" with an excellent forecast on storm surge. TWC was off on their expected landfall as crews were first dispatched to Brunswick/St. Simons Isl. - too far north. Though they did manage to scramble & get a crew to Jax Beach.
11) how much sleep did you get over the weekend????
Not much. I had about 9 hours from when I got up Sat. morning to 2am Tue. morning.
"Beryl" photos from Sun.-Mon: The first two from Krystal Kerr at St. Vincent's Medical Center, King St....3rd one is from Roberta Tootle, Brunswick where a tree fell on her daughter's house rendering the home uninhabitable...#4 is from Laura in Kingsland, Ga...#5 from Derwin Westbrook in Mandarin & #6 from Kat Easterling, San Marco.
The list below are all the damage reports from Sun.-Tue. compiled by our Jax N.W.S.:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1151 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0311 PM WILDFIRE 4 W SUMMERFIELD 29.01N 82.10W
05/26/2012 MARION FL EMERGENCY MNGR
A SIX ACRE WILDFIRE IS NOW 90 PERCENT CONTAINED. THE FIRE
BURNED SEVERAL NON RESIDENTAL STRUCTURES AND 35 TO 40
RESIDENTAL STRUCTURES WERE EVACUATED. SEVERAL RESIDENTAL
STRUCTURES EXPERIENCED HEAT DAMAGE. NO ROADS WERE CLOSED.
0425 PM RIP CURRENTS TALBOT ISLAND 30.47N 81.42W
05/26/2012 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR
EIGHT INDIVIDUALS RESCUED FROM SURF. EARLY REPORTS ARE
THAT SEVERAL CHILDREN ON BOOGIE BOARDS WERE PULLED OUT TO
SEA AND SEVERAL ADULTS ATTEMPTED TO RESCUE THEM.ALL
BECAME EXHAUSTED REQUIRING RESCUE BY FIRE RESCUE
UNITS.ONE OF THE RESCUED INDIVIDUALS WAS TRANSPORTED TO
THE HOSPITAL.
1116 AM TROPICAL STORM 42 ENE ST. AUGUSTINE BE 30.00N 80.60W
05/27/2012 AMZ472 XX BUOY
A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH WAS RECORDED AT BUOY 41012.
1203 PM TROPICAL STORM 10 W JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.55W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL ASOS
MEASURED WIND GUST OF 39 MILES AN HOUR REPORTED AT CRAIG
FIELD BY THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM.
0108 PM TROPICAL STORM 42 ENE ST. AUGUSTINE BE 30.00N 80.60W
05/27/2012 AMZ472 XX BUOY
WINDS 37 MILES PER HOUR GUSTING TO 56 MILES PER HOUR
0304 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ST. SIMONS 31.18N 81.38W
05/27/2012 M43.00 MPH GLYNN GA ASOS
0313 PM TROPICAL STORM NW PALM COAST 29.58N 81.22W
05/27/2012 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES ON FOREST HILL DRIVE IN PALM
COAST. FLORIDA POWER AND LIGHT AND FIRE DEPARTMENT ON THE
SCENE.
0315 PM TROPICAL STORM JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL MESONET
JAX BEACH PIER REPORTED WINDS AT 35 MPH GUSTING TO 55
MPH.
0341 PM TROPICAL STORM 42 ENE ST. AUGUSTINE BE 30.00N 80.60W
05/27/2012 AMZ472 XX BUOY
A TROPICAL STORM WIND GUST OF 59 MPH WAS RECORDED AT BUOY
41012. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE MEASURED AT 45 MPH.
0454 PM TROPICAL STORM 42 ENE ST. AUGUSTINE BE 30.00N 80.60W
05/27/2012 AMZ472 XX BUOY
A TROPICAL STORM FORCE PEAK WIND GUST OF 67 MPH WAS
RECORDED AT BUOY 41012. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS WERE MEASURED
AT 51 MPH. THE ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE WAS AT 994 MB.
0625 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MAYPORT 30.38N 81.41W
05/27/2012 M48.00 MPH DUVAL FL ASOS
0630 PM TROPICAL STORM 1 N MAYPORT 30.40N 81.41W
05/27/2012 AMZ452 FL MESONET
WIND AT HUGUENOT PARK REPORTED AT 43 MPH GUSTING TO 54
MPH.
0649 PM TROPICAL STORM 5 E ARLINGTON 30.33N 81.52W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL ASOS
CRAIG FIELD REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH WHEN A RAIN
BAND MOVED IN.
0830 PM TROPICAL STORM 1 N MAYPORT 30.40N 81.41W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL MESONET
MESONET EQUIPMENT AT HUGUENOT PARK RECORDED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 54 MPH WITH A PEAK WIND GUST OF 63 MPH.
0830 PM TROPICAL STORM JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL MESONET
JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 56 MPH.
0845 PM STORM SURGE 5 S DUNGENESS 30.67N 81.46W
05/27/2012 M3.47 FT NASSAU FL OTHER FEDERAL
THE NOS BUOY AT FERNANDINA BEACH SHOWED A STORM SURGE OF
3.47 FEET.
0847 PM TROPICAL STORM 1 WNW MAYPORT 30.39N 81.42W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL ASOS
THE MAYPORT NAVAL AIR STATION REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 58
MPH AS A RAIN BAND MOVED IN.
0854 PM TROPICAL STORM KINGS BAY BASE 30.79N 81.51W
05/27/2012 CAMDEN GA OTHER FEDERAL
THE KINGS BAY NAVAL BASE REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 60 MPH.
0900 PM TROPICAL STORM 3 SW MAYPORT 30.36N 81.44W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA
WONDERWOOD DRIVE HAS BEEN SHUT DOWN IN BOTH DIRECTIONS
NEAR A1A AFTER A LIGHT POLE FELL ACROSS THE ROADWAY.
0920 PM TROPICAL STORM 3 NW FORT CAROLINE 30.43N 81.53W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA
LOCAL TV STATION REPORTS ROOF OFF A HOUSE ON HECKSHER
DRIVE.
0921 PM TROPICAL STORM 10 ENE FERNANDINA BEACH 30.72N 81.29W
05/27/2012 AMZ450 FL BUOY
THE BUOY 6 MILES EAST OF FERNANDINA BEACH RECORDED SEAS
OF 15 FEET.
0930 PM TROPICAL STORM 1 SE ARLINGTON 30.32N 81.59W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA
LOCAL TV STATION REPORTS A TREE ON A HOUSE ON THE 700
BLOCK OF ARLET DRIVE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.
0935 PM TROPICAL STORM 4 SE ST. MARYS 30.67N 81.49W
05/27/2012 NASSAU FL EMERGENCY MNGR
TELEPHONE POLE AND LINES DOWN ON NORRIS ST. BETWEEN
ALEXANDER AND CHURCH STREETS IN ST. MARYS.
0936 PM TROPICAL STORM 5 E ARLINGTON 30.33N 81.52W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL ASOS
WIND GUST OF 58 MPH AT CRAIG AIRPORT.
0942 PM TROPICAL STORM 2 NNW FLAGLER BEACH 29.50N 81.14W
05/27/2012 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES DOWN ON POWER LINE AT NORTH 18TH ST. AND CENTRAL
AVE. IN FLAGLER BEACH.
0948 PM TROPICAL STORM 6 NNW MANDARIN 30.23N 81.68W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL ASOS
60 MPH WIND GUST AT JACKSONVILLE NAVAL AIR STATION.
1000 PM TROPICAL STORM 4 W MAYPORT 30.39N 81.48W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL MESONET
WIND GUST REPORT OF 67 MPH AT BUCK ISLAND ON ST. JOHNS
RIVER.
1000 PM TROPICAL STORM 42 ENE ST. AUGUSTINE BE 30.00N 80.60W
05/27/2012 AMZ472 XX BUOY
THE BUOY 40 NM EAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE RECORDED A WIND GUST
OF 60 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF TROPICAL
STORM BERYL.
1005 PM TROPICAL STORM JACKSONVILLE INTL ARPT 30.48N 81.71W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL ASOS
56 MPH WIND GUST AT JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
1030 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ARLINGTON 30.34N 81.60W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE
LARGE TREE BLOCKING STOWE RUN LANE
1030 PM TROPICAL STORM ARLINGTON 30.34N 81.60W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE
LARGE TREE BLOCKING STOWE RUN LANE
1030 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE
VERY LARGE OAK TREE FELL...COMPLETELY BLOCKING STOWE RUN
LANE.
1035 PM TROPICAL STORM FERNANDINA BEACH 30.66N 81.45W
05/27/2012 NASSAU FL BROADCAST MEDIA
WIND DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO A BEACHSIDE CONDO IN
FERNANDINA.
1035 PM TROPICAL STORM 4 W MAYPORT 30.38N 81.48W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL MESONET
A WIND GUST OF 73 MPH WAS JUST RECORDED AT BUCK ISLAND ON
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER.
1035 PM TROPICAL STORM 1 N MAYPORT 30.40N 81.41W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL MESONET
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WERE
RECORDED AT HUGUENOT PARK.
1035 PM TROPICAL STORM KINGS BAY BASE 30.79N 81.51W
05/27/2012 CAMDEN GA EMERGENCY MNGR
KINGS BAY NAVAL SUB BASE REPORTED WIND GUST OF 65 MPH AT
WATERFRONT FACILITY BEFORE THE WIND GAUGE STOPPED
REPORTING. REPORTS OF SEVERALS TREES DOWN.
1037 PM TROPICAL STORM 6 NNW MANDARIN 30.23N 81.68W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL ASOS
A 65 MPH WIND GUST WAS RECORDED AT THE JACKSONVILLE NAVAL
AIR STATION.
1100 PM TROPICAL STORM 4 NNE KINGSLAND 30.85N 81.64W
05/27/2012 CAMDEN GA EMERGENCY MNGR
CAMDEN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A VEHICLE
ACCIDENT DUE TO A TREE DOWN IN THE ROAD AT HARRIETS BLUFF
ROAD AND PAULK PL.
1100 PM TROPICAL STORM ARLINGTON 30.34N 81.60W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR
JEA IS REPORTING ABOUT 18,000 POWER OUTAGES IN THE
JACKSONVILLE AREA.
1110 PM TROPICAL STORM 4 W MAYPORT 30.38N 81.48W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL MESONET
SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED FROM THE NNE AT 47 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 62 MPH.
1220 AM TROPICAL STORM WSW KINGSLAND 30.79N 81.67W
05/28/2012 CAMDEN GA EMERGENCY MNGR
A TREE HAS FALLEN ON A HOUSE ON GARY PLACE IN KINGSLAND.
NO INJURIES REPORTED.
1230 AM TROPICAL STORM HARRIETTS BLUFF 30.87N 81.59W
05/28/2012 CAMDEN GA EMERGENCY MNGR
STRONG WINDS ESTIMATED NEAR 65 MPH. PINE TREES AND LARGE
BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.
1250 AM TROPICAL STORM JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
05/28/2012 DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE
OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED ROUGH SURF AROUND 6 FEET
AND WATER WAS UP TO THE DUNE LINE AT JACKSONVILLE BEACH.
0200 AM FLOOD 1 SW DOWNTOWN JACKSONVI 30.32N 81.67W
05/28/2012 DUVAL FL NWS STORM SURVEY
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERYL ON THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER PRODUCED WATER 2 TO 6 INCHES DEEP AT PARKLAND
CONDOMINIUMS AT 1846 MARGARET ST.
0250 AM TROPICAL STORM HARRIETTS BLUFF 30.87N 81.59W
05/28/2012 CAMDEN GA PUBLIC
TREES AND POWERLINES REPORTED DOWN IN HARRIETTS BLUFF.
0720 AM TROPICAL STORM 3 NNE KINGSLAND 30.83N 81.64W
05/28/2012 CAMDEN GA NWS EMPLOYEE
SEVERAL LARGE, HEALTHY OAK TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN THE
BRISTOL HAMMOCK NEIGHBORHOOD.
0830 AM HEAVY RAIN PALM COAST 29.57N 81.21W
05/28/2012 M4.02 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM CENTRAL PALM COAST WAS
4.02 INCHES. NORTHERN PALM COAST REPORTED 2.5 INCHES AND
WEST PALM COAST REPORTED 2.25 INCHES.
0852 AM TROPICAL STORM MIDDLEBURG 30.05N 81.90W
05/28/2012 CLAY FL NWS EMPLOYEE
LARGE TREE DOWN AT 4368 BANKS ROAD
0904 AM TROPICAL STORM 5 SW KINGS BAY BASE 30.75N 81.57W
05/28/2012 CAMDEN GA NWS EMPLOYEE
NUMEROUS LARGE OAK TREE LIMBS ABOUT 2 TO 2.5 FEET IN
DIAMETER WERE BROKEN OFF NEAR BORRELL BLVD AND RIVERVIEW
DRIVE.
0921 AM TROPICAL STORM ANASTASIA 29.89N 81.29W
05/28/2012 ST. JOHNS FL NWS EMPLOYEE
HEAVY RAIN 2.24 INCHES AT ANASTAIA ISLAND
0945 AM TROPICAL STORM SAN MARCO 30.31N 81.66W
05/28/2012 DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE
MINOR FLOODING IN SAN MARCO ABOUT A FOOT LOWER THAN FAY
1043 AM TROPICAL STORM JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
05/28/2012 DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE
FLOODING REPORTED AT 1596 LANCASTER TERRACE AT THE
BROADVIEW TOWERS CONDOMINIUM. THE RIVER CAME UP SIMILAR
TO FAY. BELOW GROUND PARKING LOT COMPLETELY FLOODED WITH
THREE CARS FLOATING. THE RIVER IS STILL BREAKING OVER THE
SEAWALL. THE PEAK FLOODING WAS ARROUND 4 TO 5 AM.
1043 AM TROPICAL STORM JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
05/28/2012 DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE
FLOODING REPORTED AT THE CORNER OF COPLAND AND RIVER
BOULEVARD...PARTS OF SEAWALL RIPPED OFF AND MOVED 8 TO 12
FEET...A DOCK WAS DISTROYED AND DEBREE IS ALL OVER THE
AREA...PEAK FLOODING WAS ARROUND 5 TO 6 AM.
1206 PM TROPICAL STORM 5 WSW DUNGENESS 30.72N 81.55W
05/28/2012 CAMDEN GA EMERGENCY MNGR
THE CITY DOCK AND BOAT RAMP WERE CLOSED IN DOWNTOWN ST
MARYS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE.
1241 PM TROPICAL STORM PALM COAST 29.57N 81.21W
05/28/2012 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE AROUND 5.43 INCHES IN
NORTHERN PALM COAST TO 5.25 INCHES IN EAST PALM COAST.
ELSEWHERE IN PALM COAST RAIN TOTALS RANGED FROM 2.25
INCHES IN WEST CENTRAL PALM COAST TO 4 INCHES IN WESTERN
PALM COAST.
0230 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 E LURAVILLE 30.12N 83.12W
05/28/2012 E0.00 INCH SUWANNEE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT
4 INCHES OF RAINFALL REPORTED OVER A 4 HOUR PERIOD,
REPORT RELAYED THROUGH NWS TALLAHASSEE.
0318 PM TROPICAL STORM 3 S UNF 30.24N 81.51W
05/28/2012 DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA
TV METEOROLOGIST RECORDED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4.05
INCHES AT I-295 AND GATE PARKWAY.
0416 PM TROPICAL STORM 4 ESE ARLINGTON 30.32N 81.53W
05/28/2012 DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA
TV STORM SPOTTER REPORTED 6+ INCHES FOR A STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL ON DEBUTANTE DRIVE IN ARLINGTON.
0416 PM TROPICAL STORM ARLINGTON 30.34N 81.60W
05/28/2012 DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA
TV STORM SPOTTER REPORTED 6+ INCHES ON DEBUTANTE DRIVE IN
ARLINGTON.
0440 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NE LIVE OAK 30.30N 82.98W
05/28/2012 SUWANNEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR
TWO REPORTS FROM NWS TALAHASSEE AND SUWANNEE COUNTY EOC
REPORT WIND DAMAGE TO A SHED AND WATER PUMP.
0510 PM TSTM WND GST OCALA 29.19N 82.13W
05/28/2012 M57.00 MPH MARION FL AWOS
THE OCALA AWOS MEASURED A GUST TO 57 MPH.
0510 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BRANFORD 29.96N 82.93W
05/28/2012 SUWANNEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR
DAMAGE TO RESIDENCE AT 22207 41ST DRIVE IN BRANFORD.
0535 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W LAKE WEIR 29.02N 82.06W
05/28/2012 MARION FL 911 CALL CENTER
TREES REPORTED DOWN ON SOUTHEAST 140TH STREET AND IN THE
HIGHLANDS SUBDIVISION.
0620 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE JACKSONVILLE INTL 30.44N 81.67W
05/28/2012 DUVAL FL COUNTY OFFICIAL
TREES FELL ON A HOUSE ON SECRETARIAT LANE WEST.
0635 PM NON-TSTM WND GST JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
05/28/2012 M42.00 MPH DUVAL FL MESONET
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 42 MPH MEASURED
AT THE JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER.
0645 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 NE BRANFORD 30.03N 82.84W
05/28/2012 M6.00 INCH SUWANNEE FL BROADCAST MEDIA
RAINFALL TOTAL MEASURED AT 6 INCHES.
1115 PM FLOOD 3 S RAINBOW LAKES ESTAT 29.10N 82.45W
05/28/2012 MARION FL 911 CALL CENTER
MARION COUNTY 911 REPORTED WATER INTRUSION INTO A
RESIDENCE ON THE 20000TH BLOCK OF SW 80TH PLACE ROAD.
1130 PM FLOOD 2 S RAINBOW LAKES ESTAT 29.11N 82.45W
05/28/2012 MARION FL 911 CALL CENTER
RAILROAD TRESTLE NEAR HIGHWAY 40 AND HIGHWAY 41
INTERSECTION REPORTED TO BE IMPASSABLE.
1130 PM FLOOD 2 S RAINBOW LAKES ESTAT 29.11N 82.45W
05/28/2012 MARION FL 911 CALL CENTER
HIGHWAY 40 AND HIGHWAY 41 INTERSECTION IMPASSABLE NEAR
RAILROAD TRESTLE.
0537 AM FLOOD 3 ENE OBRIEN 30.06N 82.89W
05/29/2012 SUWANNEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED 11 TO 15 INCHES OF STANDING
WATER EAST OF US-129 IN PARTS OF THE OBRIEN AREA.
1030 AM FLOOD 3 NW OCALA 29.22N 82.17W
05/29/2012 MARION FL EMERGENCY MNGR
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A SINKHOLE...8 FEET BY 6
FEET...ON NW 27TH AVENUE SOUTH OF NW 35TH STREET IN
OCALA.
0140 PM FUNNEL CLOUD OLENO STATE PARK 29.92N 82.56W
05/29/2012 COLUMBIA FL EMERGENCY MNGR
COLUMBIA COUNTY EM RECIEVED SEVERAL PUBLIC REPORTS OF A
FUNNEL CLOUD AN POSSIBLE TREE DAMAGE NEAR OLENO STATE
PARK. SHERIFF DEPUTIES WERE ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE.
0220 PM FUNNEL CLOUD OLENO STATE PARK 29.92N 82.56W
05/29/2012 COLUMBIA FL EMERGENCY MNGR
FOLLOW-UP TO PREVIOUS REPORT OF POSSIBLE TREE DAMAGE NEAR
OLENO STATE PARK DUE TO FUNNEL CLOUD...COUNTY OFFICIALS
FOUND NO EVIDENCE OF DAMAGE CAUSED BY A POSSIBLE PASSING
FUNNEL CLOUD.
0410 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 ESE RAIFORD 30.03N 82.16W
05/29/2012 BRADFORD FL EMERGENCY MNGR
EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED TREE AND POWERLINE DOWN ON
STATE ROAD 16 IN HEILBRON SPRINGS. TIME IS ESTIMATED FROM
RADAR.
0410 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 ESE RAIFORD 30.03N 82.16W
05/29/2012 BRADFORD FL EMERGENCY MNGR
BRADFORD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TREE INTO
A POWER LINE ALONG STATE ROAD 16 IN HEILBRON SPRINGS.
0510 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 NE BRANFORD 30.04N 82.83W
05/29/2012 M11.80 INCH SUWANNEE FL BROADCAST MEDIA
MEDIA REPORT OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 11.8 INCHES IN
SOUTH SUWANNEE COUNTY.
0600 PM HEAVY RAIN WELLBORN 30.23N 82.82W
05/29/2012 M15.00 INCH SUWANNEE FL PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 15 INCHES IN
WELLBORN. REPORT PASSED ALONG FROM WFO TAE AND BROADCAST
MEDIA.
1221 AM HEAVY RAIN FOLKSTON 30.84N 82.01W
05/30/2012 E4.75 INCH CHARLTON GA BROADCAST MEDIA
TROPICAL STORM BERYL RAINFALL TOTAL OF 4.75 INCHES.
Near the top of this post, I examined errors by the forecast models on predicting "Beryl". I got to thinking that I should probably examine my own forecast. So here we go:
** there were hints of tropical development as early as the 10th-15th of May, & I mentioned it in a couple of blog postings
** the Mon. before the Memorial Day weekend, it was pretty obvious that a storm of some sort -- probably subtropical or tropical -- was going to affect the last part of the holiday weekend, so I hit it pretty hard for the entire week
** I had a dry, hot Sat. which verified fine
** I had most of the rain holding off Sun. except closer to the coast with gusty winds & increasing clouds. I did not -- for the most part -- take into account the afternoon convection that would develop due to a combination of heating & convergent banding far removed from the center. This convection would then die by evening as the air stabilized &
the speed convergence weakened. The first very heavy rain band hit the coast about 6-7pm -- pretty close to my Fri./Sat. estimates of "early evening".
** my forecast landfall was Ponte Vedra to Jax Beach a little either way of midnight. Reality was 12:10am @ Jax Beach
** my forecast was for winds of 30-50 mph at the coast, higher gusts....20-40 mph inland, higher gusts -- that worked out pretty well. However, I was surprised by the uptick in intensity late in the day/early in the evening but felt pretty confident that the estimated 70 mph sustained winds on the east side would have a hard time making it to the coast. In the end...cooler shelf water & the western edge of the center moving over the coast stopped any intensification & probably caused some weakening before true landfall.
** I had rainfall of 3-6", up to 10" in places -- that was fine.
** I predicted isolated tornadoes & while none were confirmed, our Jax N.W.S. did issue 3 tornado warnings.
As for how "Beryl" has compared to other tropical cyclones that have affected the First Coast the last 10 years:
I would say it falls somewhat short of "Fay" (landfall near Flagler Beach) in Aug., 2008 but stronger than "Tammy" in Oct. 2005 which made landfall at Mayport.
"Beryl" certainly wasn't the blow that hammered the local area from "Frances" & "Jeanne" in 2004 but -- as a whole -- was stronger than "Bonnie" in 2004. BUT "Bonnie" did manage to drop a very damaging EF-2 on Jacksonville's NW side. Powerful hurricane "Charley" did give far southern parts of our viewing are a glancing blow the day after "Bonnie" made landfall as the storm exited into the Atlantic near Daytona Beach. Track maps below of "Bonnie", "Charley", "France", "Jeanne", "Tammy" & "Fay".
So since 2002, the First Coast has been directly affected by 7 tropical cyclones if you count "Charley". That's a little higher than the avg. of 1 named storm within 50 mi. of Jacksonville approx. every 3 yrs.
The track was also somewhat reminiscent of the infamous "Dora" in 1964 -- at least the last few hundred miles of the track. That's where any similarities end, however. "Dora" was a long track classic Cape Verde hurricane that developed from an African wave near the peak of the season in early to mid Sept. "Beryl" evolved from an upper level trough off the U.S. east coast that extended from the Caribbean hundreds of miles northeast into the Atlantic. The first weak surface low was detectable by Thu. night/early Fri. last week southeast of Miami & raced northeast reaching Jax's latitude late Fri. then coming to a screeching halt by early Sat. off the Carolina Coast. From there the low drifted southwest moving over the warm gulf stream as a strong upper level high pressure ridge built over the S.E. U.S -- the primary steering mechanism for "Beryl". As an upper level trough moved into the Eastern U.S., it softened the upper level ridge that was guiding "Beryl" thereby inducing the fairly sharp turn north then northeast -- similar to "Dora's" exit in 1964. 1st image below from Wikipedia....2nd image from NOAA.
A few more photos from "Beryl":
Bruce Burfeind-I295 & I-95 - tattered but the flag still waves on Memorial Day....Shawn Sloan, Julington Creek...Christina Evans, San Marco...Kristi Reynolds, Waverly, Ga. @ Jekyll Island & "Shortbus" - Admiral Walk @ Atlantic Beach.
"JaxReady" app is now available -- click here. According to our Action News reporter Eric Bennett:
Mayor Brown just announced the launch of Jax Ready... a mobile app designed to help residents monitor weather threats and plans for evacuations in the event of a natural disaster.
The free app can be downloaded on the iPhone and Android.
This device comes just in time for the start of hurricane season.
Mayor Brown says sometimes, all someone has is their cell phone...so JaxReady is vital.
