The Atlantic Basin --
remains void of any tropical activity -- full of dry air & high shear. Disorganized shower & t'storm activity continues to pop in the Gulf due to an upper level low that is moving west. No surface development is expected.Long range global forecast models continue to point to the far W. Caribbean, far SW Gulf of Mexico as an area with the potential for development. Nothing to really hang your hat on -- for the moment -- but the Bay of Campeche may be an area to watch during the next week or so.
A large area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) remains over the Central & SW Atlantic. Overall conditions remain unsuitable for significant tropical development as shear generally remains high too.
Shear is strong over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- exceeding 30 knots over parts of the Caribbean...exceeding 30 knots over the SW Atlantic (but diminishing overall)....& 20+ knots over the Gulf of Mexico....
Tropical waves are struggling as they move west off the coast of Africa. Little development expected at this time with the few waves that are westbound. Dry air is very evident on the IR satellite below - note the patchy light gray colored clouds which are stratocumulus clouds - indicative of a stable air mass.
In the Pacific, "Henriette" is moving well south of Hawaii & weakening....a couple of other disturbances in the E. Pacific have the potential for slow development.