"Isaac" Remnants Moving into Ohio Valley; "Kirk" Weakening; "Leslie" has Mega Battle Against Shear...........
The remnant low that was "Isaac" just doesn't want to give up & will be moving into the Ohio Valley. Several forecast models show the mid & upper level disturbance maintaining itself & dropping southeast then south across the Eastern U.S. next week. "Ivan" made a somewhat similar loop in 2004 (see 4th & 5th images below). If the disturbance does return to the SE U.S., there is not likely to be a surface feature, but the upper level energy could enhance showers & t'storms during the middle of next week. There will also be possible interaction with an upper level cold core low near Fl. by the middle of next week. While no surface low is currently predicted by the forecast models, we'll have to wathc for possible surface development near or just east of Fl. about Wed.-Thu. Click
here for updated storm summaries on 'Isaac" from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.
IVAN'S TRACK IN 2004:
"Leslie" is battalion shear that is about to get much stronger. The tropical cyclone was on fairly quickly intensifying & is a broad storm/circulation, but its "party" is about to come to an abrupt end. See the 5th image below which shows the strong shear -- 30-50 mph! -- to the immediate northwest of the storm. This shear looks like it'll hang around for several days which should stop any strengthening & possibly cause weakening. Looks like conditions improve for the cyclone by the middle of next week at which time intensification could resume. It still looks like "Leslie" will slow a great deal if not stall at about Jacksonville's latitude -- but 500+ miles to the east -- by the middle of next week. There could also be a bit of a jog west at that point but early indications are that "Leslie" will still get steered north then northeast in time. Still a long way out with plenty that can change. And if we look at the W. Pacific last week, the 2nd typhoon moved to the China coast west & southwest of Japan, so we'll have to beware of a farther west track in the long run than forecast models are currently indicating.
In any case... "Leslie" could become strong enough & large enough to send an easterly swell to First Coast beaches next week.
"Kirk" in the North Atlantic is finally feeling the effects of increasing shear & cooler sea surface temps. as the storm accelerates to the north/northeast. There will be no impact on any land areas.
The rest of the Atlantic Basin has gone quiet (as has most of the Pacific Basin). The parade of tropical waves coming off Africa has eased (see last satellite image below), & it looks like we're in for a period of quieter activity -- from a tropical standpoint -- in the Atlantic Basin that could last at least a couple of weeks. The one area to watch will be possible close-in development (to the U.S.) with the upper level trough that will be persistent over or near the east coast of the U.S. (as alluded to earlier in this discussion at the top).
