Disturbance in Gulf Remains Weak; "Leslie" & "Michael" (Not Buresh), Strong Wave in Far E. Atlantic....
***** An elevated rip current risk at First Coast beaches due to easterly swells from "Leslie" continues this weekend - use caution at area beaches *****
The mid & upper level disturbance that was "Isaac" is the Gulf of Mexico & is still accompanied disorganized bands of showers & t'storms, mainly in the eastern & southern portions of the system. Mid & upper level shear remains strong over the east half of the Gulf. It does not look like this tropical disturbance will be able to organize before being absorbed by a strong Eastern U.S. trough & connecting with a surface cold front. Still...the combination of the tropical disturbance & its moisture + the strong upper trough + surface cold front should lead to heavy rain for the First Coast (& much of the Southeast U.S. & Gulf Coast) this weekend.
is still battling dry mid & upper level air with a wide circulation. The storm has barely moved for several days causing upwelling beneath the cyclone & cooler sea surface temp. It seems the combination of the cooler water. + lingering dry mid & upper level air is hindering "Leslie" quite a bit. "Leslie" should start to increase its forward speed to the north or north/northwest as a strong upper trough approaches this weekend. Despite recent struggles, "Leslie" is still well organized & will likely strengthen once it begins its move north. The storm will stay far to the east of the U.S. & a little east of Bermuda but could affect parts of Nova Scotia & especially Newfoundland early next week.
"Leslie" will be strong enough & large enough to continue to send an easterly swell to First Coast beaches through at least increasing the rip current risk....with at least an elevated risk continuing into the weekend.
"Michael" (not Buresh!) is still a pretty strong hurricane. The hurricane is likely to only move very slowly to the north then turn northwest & is no threat to any land areas. There may be some eventual interaction with much bigger "Leslie" in the N. Atlantic next week.
A low latitude wave in the Central Atlantic will soon approach the Eastern Caribbean. It's not out of the question we could see some slow long term development.
A strong wave is in the far E. Atlantic & has brought very heavy rain & gusty winds to the Cape Verde Islands just off the African coast. Forecast models develop this wave fairly quickly but are also showing pretty early recurvature. This wave could become "Nadine".