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August Tropical Climatology

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Updated: 8/01/2013 9:07 am
The remnants of "Dorian" are still very evident with fairly concentrated convection over the Central Bahamas.  Movement will continue to be to the northwest with a gradual turn more north as the wave gets caught up with an upper level trough moving into the Southeast U.S.  The trough will be transient & lifting out rather quickly Fri.-Sat.  If the trough happens to miss the wave then the wave would most likely turn more west late in the weekend/next week.  But all indications are that the wave will become absorbed by the upper trough near the Fl. east coast or just east of Fl.  

A huge area of dry mid & upper level air -- a mainstay of the last several weeks -- covers much of the Caribbean eastward for hundreds of miles across the Central Atlantic.

Shear is still strong over much of the Atlantic Basin....

A weak tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa.  Little development expected.

As we turn the calendar to August... July had 2 tropical storms, no hurricanes.  Neither "Chantal" (July 7-10, 1st track map below) or "Dorian" (July 24-27, 2nd track map below) could win battles against dry air & especially shear & neither storm caused significant damage.  

While damage during this hurricane season so far has been minimal, the Atlantic Basin is above average in numbers as the 4th ("D") tropical cyclone does not -- on avg. -- form until Aug. 23. The avg. date for the first hurricane in the Atlantic Basin is Aug. 10 which seems unlikely at this point.  Below are the average tracks for Atlantic Aug. tropical cyclones:

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