"Paul" Aiming for the Baja Peninsula in E. Pacific..."Rafael" Accelerating N/NE Far to the East of Jax......
Take note of the ragged cut-off & bad data over the far E. Atlantic. The problem is that the GOES-13 satellite is malfunctioning. Work is ongoing but for the time being the satellite -- GOES-15 -- that usually covers the Western U.S. & parts of the Pacific has been moved east to cover more of the Atlantic Basin. Click here for info. from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Studies (CIMSS) & to view other satellite sectors.
"Rafael" has become a pretty well developed hurricane despite the continued presence of upper level southwesterly shear. The upper level trough moving into the Eastern U.S./Western Atlantic will insure a north/northeast acceleration with a transition to extratropical later this week. "Rafael" will about at Jax's latitude late Tue. but 1,000+ miles to the east. There will be no impacts on the First Coast or any of the U.S. other than a bit of an easterly swell...just some wave action for the Bahamas...& some gusty winds, heavy rain & rough seas & surf for Bermuda though it doesn't look like a direct hit for the island.
A large disorganized tropical wave is in the Eastern Atlantic well west/southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. There's some potential for slow development but given the time of year -- late in the hurricane season -- the chances for the wave to make it across the Atlantic are low. Still...it's something to watch if the wave can avoid recurvature since an upper level ridge will build over much of the W. Atlantic in 10-14 days.
In the E. Pacific....hurricane "Paul" will make landfall on the central coast of the Baja Peninsula by late Tue. "Paul" will quickly weaken the next couple days due to land interaction & increasing shear. Some tropical moisture may eventually spread into parts of the SW U.S as what's left of "Paul" turns sharply to the northwest in the long term.
