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Calm Atlantic Continues

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Updated: 8/21/2013 1:32 pm
No areas of concern.....

The Atlantic Basin -- as a whole -- remains remarkably quiet for mid to late August.

Large areas of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) remain over the Central Atlantic. Overall conditions remain unsuitable for significant tropical development as shear generally remains high too. In addition, a large upper level trough is over the W. Atlantic.  This trough is expected to slowly weaken & lift to the north but a piece of it could be left behind next week.  The result is some ridging should gradually develop + we'll have to watch the "pinched" off portion for maybe slow development. Some forecast models continue to point to tropical development in the far Eastern Atlantic during the last few days of Aug. & especially into Sept.  The troughing (or possible reinforcement of the trough) or remaining "pinched" trough might play a role in any possible movement across the Atlantic....or lack thereof.

Shear has lessened over the Gulf of Mexico but is still strong over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- exceeding 30 knots over parts of the Caribbean...exceeding 40 knots over the Central Atlantic where a large upper level trough is positively tilted north of the Greater Antilles....

The frequency of tropical waves moving off Africa is increasing.  While no substantive development is likely in the short term, this is an area that should become quite active in the next 1-3 weeks.

Sea surface temps. are plenty warm to sustain tropical development over the primary alley-ways of the tropical Atlantic.  We're approaching the peak of water temps. which usually lasts through about mid Sept. then slowly decreases though not usually significantly until Oct. in the Gulf & especially Caribbean.

Compared to avg. -- see below -- sea surface temps. are near or a little above avg. across most of the Atlantic Basin.  The greatest positive anomalies are over the Central & N. Atlantic.

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