Tropical Disturbance Slowly Organizing in Caribbean; Weak Low in Central Atlantic......
Take note of the sharp cut-off in data over the far E. Atlantic. The problem is that the GOES-13 satellite is malfunctioning. Work is ongoing but for the time being the satellite -- GOES-15 -- that usually covers the Western U.S. & parts of the Pacific has been moved east to cover more of the Atlantic Basin. Click here for info. from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Studies (CIMSS) & to view other satellite sectors.
Forecast models continue to show tropical development in or near the Caribbean during the upcoming week. This is a climatologically favored region for late season development, so it's an area to watch. Strong upper level troughing looks like it'll remain in place -- in one form another -- over the Eastern U.S. which could protect the Southeast U.S. from any Caribbean disturbance but such will ultimately depend on the exact orientation & intensity of the trough. A large area of disorganized convection persists over the Central Caribbean & models are pretty insistent on development moving from the Caribbean to near the Bahamas by midweek & east of Fl. late this week. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance plane will investigate this afternoon. Heavy rain, rough seas & surf & gusty winds will affect Jamaica soon as well as parts of Cuba & Hispaniola later this week then the Bahamas by late week. Any cruises to the Caribbean might have to be rerouted.
As for the First Coast.....it would appear directly effects will be relegated to a stiff east/northeast breeze Fri.-Sat., rough seas & surf & a high rip current risk -- all, of course, dependent on the exact location & intensity of whatever this disturbance becomes (Sandy?).
A disturbance -- the combination of an upper low & tropical wave -- is in the Central Atlantic & has already started a northward turn. The system has the potential for some slow development, but the disturbance should stay well east of the U.S. over the open mid Atlantic. Note the band of clouds to the west of the disturbance in the Atlantic. The clouds are along a cold front which will eventually pick up the disturbance accelerating the system to north/northeast with an increase in shear at about the same time.
Yet another tropical wave is working west at a pretty low latitude about midway between S. America & Africa. This system will move west/northwest & could slowly develop.
