Tropical Storm "Ernesto" Headed for Central America & Could Become a Hurricane; Couple Waves in Central & E. Atlantic....
"Ernesto" is on track to hit Northern Belize/Southern Yucatan by early Wed. Though still trying to fight off dry mid & upper level air, there is still a chance that "Ernesto" will be a hurricane near/at landfall. It looks like the most intense weather associated with "Ernesto" will be south of Cancun. It's possible that the storm will never manage to make it back into the SW Gulf of Mexico & if it does, it'll only be for a short time before moving into Mexico well south of Texas.
"Ernesto" is not a threat to Florida....in fact, there will be no impact on the any of the U.S. The image below underneath the NHC track forecast is the Belize City weather radar.
is officially dissipated in the Central Atlantic & is mostly a weak swirl of low clouds but with an occasional burst of convection. Regeneration is unlikely given the massive shear it's about to travel through.Another wave
is in the far Eastern Atlantic & headed west. This wave will also encounter mostly hostile conditions but might have some opportunity for eventual organization given the more southerly latitude (similar to "Ernesto"). Forecast models generally show no development with this wave but do hit on at least a couple of waves in the long range that could be an issue beginning this weekend or next week. It does appear overall conditions will -- in a general sense -- become more favorable for tropical systems the next 1-2 weeks. See the last image below showing the waves lined up across Africa -- something to keep an eye on given we're fast approaching the peak season of the Cape Verde season.