Monitoring the Gulf of Mexico & NW Caribbean... "Humberto" Over Open N. Atlantic...
"Humberto" regenerated early in the week but is suffering from some shear & cooler water temps. Satellite imagery below clearly shows a frontal system approaching from the west which will eventually turn "Humberto" more northward then northeast keeping the system over the open N. Atlantic. There is no threat to the U.S.
Something to keep an eye on later this week into the following week will be the SW Atlantic, Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico as a strong surface high pressure is forecast to move into the NE U.S. & N. Atlantic. I mentioned last week that such a set-up in the fall can be classic for mid to late season tropical development because lower pressure has to naturally develop to the south which is now occurring. Indeed....most forecast models are pointing to tropical development but are -- no surprise this far in advance -- inconsistent on the details. It looks like there may be 2 distinct areas of development:
(1) east of the Bahamas that will then move northeast into the Central Atlantic. This system would have little or no impact on the First Coast or any of the U.S.........
(2) the Gulf of Mexico with a slow move northeast
The pattern is quite complicated. There are indications that -- in the end -- there may be 2 distinct areas of low pressure that emerge from the Gulf. One would head northeast to near Fl. late in the weekend/early next week then into the W. Atlantic. The second would form in the W. Gulf & slowly move north or perhaps NE through much of next week.
Right now there are 2 distinct areas of strong & persistent t'storms that could be the forerunner to eventual development. The most obvious & most impressive area is the NW Caribbean & the Yucatan Peninsula. This wave will move slowly northwest & should be into the SW Gulf Thu./Fri.
The second area of convection is in the extreme S/SW Caribbean. Proximity to land could be a problem for a while, but this wave might become a "player" within the next week or so.
LOCALLY....For the First Coast....at the very least we're looking at the potential for heavy rain late in the weekend into early next week.
Forecast model plots courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:
Very few tropical waves now coming off Africa. It's possible we're seeing an early end to the Cape Verde season....at least as far as long track tropical cyclones are concerned.