A strong cold front i
s pushing into the W. Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico but its penetration to the south will quickly halt & not get much beyond the Fl. Straits before upper level southwest flow pushes the front north along with a surge of moisture. We'll have to watch the front for any possible surface low that might try to develop into next week but there are no indications of such.
The Caribbean is remarkably free of even any cloud cover with the exception of a t'storm cluster in the SW corner. Clouds & scattered convection will increase the next few days as the cold front approaches but stalls to the north.
Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm over & near the Caribbean. The time for slow tropical development in the Caribbean is running out but still possible. A series of strong surface high pressures will continue to move across the Northeast U.S. into the NW Atlantic. This steady dose of higher pressure will potentially induce low pressure far to the south over or near the SW Atlantic &/or Caribbean which could in turn lead to some kind of tropical or subtropical development. Again....this is completely a pattern recognition forecast & there are few if any forecast models indicating such -- for right now...at least any development of much consequence.
Global tropical activity… finally quieter world-wide though a disturbed area is being monitored by Joint Typhoon Warning Center west of the Philippines. This disturbance brought heavy rain to "Haiyan" ravaged areas of the islands but is now moving away.
Tropical disturbance is moving away from the Philippines….