Cuba Battered by "Sandy"

Hurricane WARNING for Parts of Eastern/Central Cuba & the Central & NW, Parts of SE Bahamas...; Tropical Storm WARNING for the Lower East Coast of Fl., SE Bahamas & Haiti... Tropical Storm WATCH for Parts of Upper Keys & Far SE Fl.....

** The tropical storm WATCH & WARNING for the SE Fl. coast & upper Keys is primarily a result of the wide wind field -- that's expected to expand even more -- to the northwest of the center & NOT because of a change in the forecast path which is a center well to the east of Fl** ......

"Sandy" became a hurricane just south of Jamaica spending only about 2 1/2 hours over the eastern edge of the island after a landfall near Kingston about 3pm EDT Wed.  The hurricane's eye became more evident & appeared to tighten up some based on radar imagery & satellite data upon landfall & even more so after returning to the water between Jamaica & Cuba. Given the short time over the eastern edge of Jamaica & the return to very warm water, additional strengthening is occurring upon approach to Cuba. As I alluded to in earlier posts, the fear of rapid strengthening did come true as a small distinct eye appeared just before landfall early Thu. (see the image beneath the "spaghetti plots"). Strong upper level troughing looks like it'll become reinforced -- in one form another -- over the Northern & Eastern U.S. which should protect the Southeast U.S. from the brunt of the storm.  The GFS model shows a fairly sharp turn to the east/northeast once into the Bahamas this weekend but recent model runs have shown a turn back to the west/northwest as a subtropical storm vs. a separate baroclinic low developing over the Northeast U.S. as has been shown in past runs.  The European model on the other hand has maintained a much sharper northward, even northwest move once past Fl. plowing into New England next week as an intense hybrid storm.  Either way...impacts on the First Coast will be virtually the same as I anticipate a center well to the east of Jacksonville Fri. night-Saturday.  

Torrential rain, rough seas & surf & damaging winds will diminish for Jamaica but increase for parts of Cuba & Hispaniola Thu.-early Fri. then the Bahamas by Thu. night-Fri into Sat.  "Sandy" will move north/northeast & undergo increasing shear by the weekend as it moves into the W. Atlantic east of Fl.  The combination of the shear + interaction with an upper level trough & possible frontal system could give the tropical cyclone a more subtropical structure late in the weekend/early next week. Any cruises this week to the Bahamas &/or Caribbean might have to be rerouted but will still get out of port, just a matter of where the cruise will exactly be able to go.  

FOR THE FIRST COAST.....it would appear directly effects will be relegated to a stiff east/northeast wind later Thu.-Fri. that becomes offshore -- from the N/NW -- Sat.-Sun., rough seas & surf & a high rip current risk & possibly some beach erosion -- all, of course, dependent on the exact location & intensity of "Sandy".  Conditions at area beaches will become downright dangerous later this week into the weekend.

Wave heights courtesy NOAA:

Infrared satellite imagery of "Sandy" @ 1:06am EDT Thu. just before Cuban landfall:

Tropical storm "Tony" is over the Central Atlantic but has already made the turn north/northeast.  A cold front will soon absorb "Tony" -- & along with increasing shear -- will move the storm quite sharply east/northeast & accelerate far to the east of the U.S. over the open Atlantic followed by a more northward turn early next week toward the Azores Islands as a post-tropical ocean storm.