First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Development Likely in SW Gulf of Mexico

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Updated: 9/12/2013 11:53 am
Weak "Gabrielle" in W. Atlantic... "Humberto" in E. Atlantic... Wave moving into the Bay of Campeche should become next named storm... 

After diminishing to little more than a swirl of low level clouds, convection popped again near the center of "Gabrielle", so the storm is hanging on.  A broad upper level trough remains over the U.S. east coast & will help insure that "Gabrielle" moves north then accelerates northeast over the NW Atlantic staying east of the U.S.  Southwesterly shear is still strong so "Gabrielle" should remain a minimal storm.

There will be no impact on the First Coast or any of Florida.

"Humberto" has been trying to form an eye on-&-off over the far E. Atlantic.  The tropical cyclone is on borrowed time, however, as shear will soon be increasing.  "Humberto" will weaken through the weekend as it turns sharply to the west over the open Atlantic.  If the storm can survive the hostile environment through Sunday, there's the potential for restrengthening next week.  Still...."Humberto" will stay over the open Atlantic & is of no threat to the First Coast or any of the U.S.

The strong tropical wave that's been moving steadily northwest from the Caribbean across the Yucatan Peninsula is now over the very warm water of the Bay of Campeche.  Development is likely, & this wave should become "Ingrid" fairly quickly.  The question then becomes one of how long the storm stays over water.  There's the potential for pretty fast intensification over the far Western/SW Gulf.  Primary impacts will from Eastern Mexico to possibly as far north as far Southern Texas this weekend into early next week.

This one stays far to the west of the First Coast & all of Fl. so -- again -- no local impacts.

Model data below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- 20+ knots over the far Northern & Eastern Gulf of Mexico... 30-40+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 50+ knots(!) over parts of the Central Atlantic.  In fact, "Humberto" is approaching 60+ knots of shear over the E. Atlantic!

Tropical waves will continue to move off the coast of Africa with some potential for gradual development over the E. & Central Atlantic.  The "Cape Verde season" typically starts to wind down within a few weeks.

Something to keep an eye on next week into the following week will be the SW Atlantic, Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico as a strong surface high pressure is forecast to move into the NE U.S. & N. Atlantic.  Such a set-up in the fall causes lower pressure to naturally develop to the south that can sometimes lead to tropical development. Indeed....some forecast models are now indicating such an occurrence near the Bahamas/W. Atlantic as well as possibly over the Gulf of Mexico.  Period of greatest concern appears -- at this time -- to be between Sept. 18th & 28th.

49 years ago this week the First Coast was reeling from the pounding delivered by hurricane "Dora" which came ashore just north of St. Augustine as a Cat. 2 storm.

It was 49 years ago Tue. -- Sept. 10th -- when hurricane "Dora" slammed the area. This was a classic long track Cape Verde hurricane that made the rare hit on Northeast Fl. from the east. Within a matter of days, the First Coast was visited by a hurricane & declared a federal disaster area... President Lyndon B. Johnson made a personal assessment... & the Beatles played on! From viewer Linda Moniz:

"I was here when it hit. I also went to see the Beatles as we had no electricity and our Moms drove myself and my friend across the street to the Gator Bowl and picked us up afterward…who would do that in this day and age? Lol

But as an adult I went on many field trips with my kids and while the kids might be restless and playing around, I listened and learned a lot.

One impression made on me was at Pelote’s Island and the speaker was talking about why the Timucan Indians buried their dead on the banks at the mouth of a river.

The Indian belief is that a hurricane will NEVER enter the mouth of a river….seems to be true as Dora entered near St Augustine…"

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