The remnants of "Dorian"
have managed reorganize enough to be deemed a tropical depression & an increase to a tropical storm is a possibility. Satellite & radar imagery still shows a relatively disorganized system despite decent convection. Most of the strong convection is over the south & southeast quadrant of the storm with next to nothing to the north & west of the "center". An upper level trough of low pressure still looks to be the main player on where "Dorian" will go. The trough will steer "Dorian" north through Sat. night followed by a fairly sharp turn to the northeast away
from Fl. out over the open Atlantic. Shear will continue to be a problem for "Dorian" & could still rip apart the circulation at just about any time. Some heavy rain will occur from the Upper Keys to Cape Canaveral + circulation around the system will likely induce heavy storms when convergence occurs with the west coast sea breeze -- likely over central or western portions of the peninsula later in the day.
There will be very little impact on the First Coast other than it might help draw even drier mid & upper level air into the area this weekend....+ a slight increase in easterly swells at the beaches.
A huge area of dry mid & upper level air continues from the Caribbean east for hundreds of miles across the Atlantic. In fact, Saharan dust has traveled west all the way to the Lesser Antilles & Puerto Rico. Overall conditions remain unsuitable for significant tropical development as shear generally remains high too.
Shear is still strong over much of the Atlantic Basin....
Tropical waves are struggling as they move west off the coast of Africa. Little development expected at this time with the few waves that are westbound.
Saharan dust moving west off of Africa can also hinder tropical waves that might otherwise try to develop. From NASA:
HS3 Mission to Investigate Saharan Dust NASA's HS3 hurricane mission will address the controversial role of the Saharan Air Layer in tropical storm formation and intensification as well as the role of deep convection in the inner-core region of storms. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite captured this image of a dust storm in the Sahara Desert and dust blowing into the eastern Atlantic Ocean on July 30, 2013 at 7:40 a.m. EDT. Credit for photo below: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team
Always be ready + make sure you understand your insurance policy.........CEO of Solace Insurance and long-time industry veteran, Bob Childress, advises a “better safe than sorry” mentality, and pushes Floridians to begin insurance hurricane preparations now. Because many insurance plans are not all-inclusive, Childress suggests considering the following when securing or modifying insurance coverage for hurricane preparation:
● Flooding. Even homes that are not in high-risk flood areas can potentially experience severe flooding. Many homes that suffer water damage during hurricane season are in areas that are not considered to be at risk of flooding. Remember that “low-risk” does not equal “no-risk.” Anyone can be financially vulnerable to floods. People outside of high-risk areas file over 20% of NFIP claims and receive one-third of disaster assistance for flooding (4).
● Hurricane Deductibles. Many insurance policies have a separate, higher deductible for hurricanes (typically 2%), meaning that the policyholder is responsible for the first damages worth 2% of the home’s value. For example, if a home is insured for $400,000, a 2% percent hurricane deductible leaves the homeowner on the hook for $8,000 in damages before the insurance kicks in. Be cognizant of a policy’s restrictions with regard to deductibles.
● Wind. Ensure that wind is not excluded or restricted from the insurance policy—there are often set parameters by which damage from wind can be claimed. If a policy omits wind damage from its coverage, it is best to obtain a separate “wind only” policy.
Childress maintains that the key to surviving Florida’s hurricane season without severe financial turmoil is by being proactive with wise insurance investments—rather than looking for the cheapest policy, residents should work to navigate the rate hikes while still ensuring security in the event of a disaster. He suggests that the right questions need to be asked when purchasing insurance, to ensure that a claim, if ever filed, will result in the protection that the homeowner truly needed:
1. Do I have the right type of coverage? Insuring everything, all property and valuables with one agency, though not required, is highly recommended for the most comprehensive evaluation of insurance needs and the best method for guarding against gaps in coverage.
2. Do I have the right amount of coverage? Insurance is a balancing act—failing to carry the proper amounts of insurance leaves policyholders facing an almost certain monetary loss, while too much coverage is a waste of money. The right amount of insurance is critical when protecting home and property.
3. Can I prepare for a claim ahead of time? Talk to your insurance agent ahead of time to obtain the best phone numbers to call when attempting to file a claim. Have all the necessary information on hand—it’s best to create a disaster plan before a disaster occurs. Check to see if your agent or agency has online claim filing capabilities.
4. Are temporary living expenses covered? Many policies cover living expenses if the policyholder is temporarily displaced—check the policy, because there are often limits on how much a company will pay, and for how long. This coverage is not available on a flood insurance policy. Having money set aside to cover this expense is highly recommended.