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"Erin" Dying... Weak Wave W. Gulf

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Updated: 8/18/2013 1:03 pm
Tropical wave in the SW Gulf... Weak "Erin" Dying in E. Atlantic.....

Weak low pressure/a tropical wave is in the SW Gulf.  The convection is stretched out...elongated parallel to the surface trough that's attached to the wave/weak low.

There will be no development of this wave as it moves west/northwest.

"Spaghetti plots" (forecast models) courtesy the S. Fl. Water Management District:

Large areas of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) remains over the Central Atlantic & has started to -- once again -- spread into the Caribbean. Overall conditions remain unsuitable for significant tropical development as shear generally remains high too. There has been moistening over the Eastern Atlantic & some forecast models are indicating tropical development in the far Eastern Atlantic (besides "Erin") during the last week or so of Aug.

Shear is strong over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- exceeding 30 knots over parts of the Caribbean...exceeding 40 knots over the Central Atlantic....& 20+ knots over parts of the Northern Gulf of Mexico....

"Erin" is struggling over the far Eastern Atlantic & should soon be little more than a low level swirl of clouds.

A pretty healthy tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa.  Forecast models again show initial development but then the system is stymied courtesy the hostile conditions that remain entrenched over the Central & parts of the Eastern Atlantic.  Short term development is possible...long term survival is unlikely.

What convection is left from "Erin" is located well to the north of the "center" (a swirl of low level clouds).

MJO-No.... The MJO - Madden-Julian Oscialltion is getting ready to ramp up.  This phenomenon is a combination of atmospheric circulation and heavy rain/t'storm cluster that originate in the W. Pacific & then propage eastward.  When the MJO begins to work eastward (generally a 1-2 months cycle that is then followed by suppressed convection), it can be a signal of an uptick in tropical activity during the hurricane season.  Aftern taking its sweet time the last few weeks, it would appear the MJO is about to take off, & the GFS forecast model is indeed showing an uptick in deep tropical activity the last week or so of August that would likely continue into at least early Sept.  Stay tuned!  Click ** here ** to read more about the MJO including a definition & forecasts.

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