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Eyes on the Caribbean

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Updated: 9/30/2013 7:57 am
Tropical Depression #11 in the Atlatic... Active Wave in the Caribbean.......

T.D. # 11 remains far out in the Central Atlantic.  A large trough of low pressure over the W. Atlantic will soon be reinforced & should pick up the #11 (possibly a tropical storm by then) late in the week & insure a northward then northeast turn & acceleration.  This one stays far out over the open Atlantic.

Satellite imagery above shows an active tropical wave continuing in the Central/Southern Caribbean & is crawling to the northwest.  For the moment, shear is strong over the Central Caribbean (see image below) but will subside some during the upcoming week as the wave slowly moves into the NW Caribbean & Southern Gulf of Mexico.  This wave has the potential to slowly develop.  Both the GFS & European forecast models "acknowledge" this wave but are showing little model run to run consistency.  How sharp an eventual northward turn is (or is not) will come down to an upper level trough that will move into the Eastern U.S. late in the week & the weekend.  Recent trends have been for the upper trough to be slower thereby slowing the northward move of the wave.  Models have also trended (fairly consistently so) to a weak system, possibly little more than a surface trough or weak low pressure.  But his remains a wave to watch with at least some potential for long term development.  The longer the wave manages to stay over the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico, the more worrisome more significant development will become.  

Even without significant development, it appears tropical moisture will flow northward in association with the wave enhancing the heavy rain potential for the First Coast by the weekend.

Model plots below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:

A tropical wave is moving into the Lesser Antilles (see satellite image above below the forecast track for #11) but is already feeling the effects of strong shear.  Little development expected.

A pretty strong tropical wave has come off the coast of Africa.  Early indications are that this wave will turn north fairly soon & also encounter shear.  We can probably just about close the door this season on long track Cape Verde storms. the W. Pacific....typhoon "Wutip" is headed for Vietnam & will make landfall late Mon. as at least a Cat. 1 typhoon (hurricane), possibly Cat. 2.  The storm has already been deadly killing dozens of fishermen off the coast of China.

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