First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

"Fernand" Inland Over Mexico

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Updated: 8/26/2013 11:18 am
"Fernand" Moving Inland Over Mexico...

"Fernand" had a short life cycle as the tropical system is now inland over Mexico well south of Texas & will soon dissipate.

A tropical wave is over the Central/Western Caribbean moving west/northwest.  No development in the short term.

We'll need to carefully monitor an unseasonable yet weak front/trough that will settle into the Gulf of Mexico eastward across Fl. into the SW Atlantic this week (see the cloud "line" on the satellite photo below).  Forecast models do not show low pressure developing at this point anywhere along the front, but this is a potential classic set-up where a cluster of t'storms becomes established then develops low pressure & becomes a tropical system.  Just something to keep in mind...

A large area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) remain over the Central Atlantic. Overall conditions remain unsuitable for significant tropical development in the short term.

Most forecast models continue to point to tropical development in the far Eastern Atlantic during the first half of Sept.  The troughing (or possible reinforcement of the trough) or a remaining "pinched" trough in the W. Atlantic might play a role in any possible movement across the Atlantic....or lack thereof.

Shear remains strong over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- exceeding 30 knots over parts of the Gulf of Mexico... 30+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 30-40+ knots over the Central Atlantic.

The frequency of tropical waves moving off Africa is increasing but still lacks much organization or -- for that matter -- strong convection.  While no significant development is likely in the short term, this is an area that could -- & should -- become quite active in the next 1-3 weeks.  


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