First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Front From Atlantic into the Caribbean

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Updated: 10/28/2013 7:29 am
An autumn cold front is nicely visible on IR satellite imagery from the N. Atlantic through the SW Atlantic, Bahamas, Cuba into extreme NW Caribbean.

There are two waves evident in/near the Caribbean:
(1) one is a persistent, slow-moving wave in the W. Caribbean close to Central America.  There are no current signs of any development, but it's an area to watch.
(2) a slow westward-moving wave that's approaching the Eastern Caribbean.  This disorganized wave is not likely to develop anytime soon.

The Gulf is void of much cloud cover let alone any tropical activity.

Tropical activity over the W. Pacific signifies a likely buckling of the jet stream over the E. Pacific & U.S. over the next week or two possibly -- & likely -- leading to the mean [avg.] trough shifting to the Western &/or Central U.S. later this week & beyond.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm over & near the Caribbean.  I would be surprised if tropical cyclone genesis did not occur in the Caribbean the first week or two of Nov.

Global tropical activity:

"Raymond" in the E. Pacific now moving west away from the Mexico coast but became a hurricane again Sat. night.  Though a sharp turn to the north is expected, "Raymond" will weaken before having a chance at again getting close to land:


We're at the one year mark since "Sandy" made landfall on the New Jersey shore -- Oct. 29th. "Sandy" became a hurricane in the Caribbean Oct. 24th & went on to hit Jamaica as a Cat. 1 then SE Cuba as a Cat. 3 before slowly weakening as the storm turned north through the Bahamas. The storm reached Jacksonville's latitude about midday Oct. 27th but was hundreds of miles to the east. There were rip currents & a moderately strong onshore flow but no rain [from "Sandy" - despite dire forecasts from some media outlets] for the First Coast. It was just 2 days later when the extratropical storm slammed the mid Atlantic.

"Sandy" produced a historical storm surge on the coast of N.Y. & Jersey while generating heavy snow far inland.  The 72 U.S. deaths was the greatest death toll from a landfalling named storm -- outside of the Southern U.S. -- since "Agnes" in 1972.  Click ** here ** for a NASA summary... ** here ** for a NHC summary.

As for the tropics now....there are no areas of immediate concern as the last advisory on "Lorenzo" in the Central Atlantic was issued Thu. The area to watch in the next week or two is the Caribbean.

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