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"Humberto" Regenerates

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Updated: 9/17/2013 7:37 am
"Ingrid" Weakening Over Mexico... "Humberto" Regenerates... 

"Ingrid" continues to move farther inland over Mexico & is weakening after making landfall between 7 & 8am EDT Mond.  Very heavy rain continues over Eastern & Northeast Mexico.  The last advisory was issued by the NHC early Tue.

"Humberto" has regenerated near 30 degrees N., 40 degrees W over the open Atlantic but still suffering from some southerly & southwest shear. Satellite imagery shows a frontal system approaching from the west which will eventually turn "Humberto" more northward then northeast keeping the system over the open Atlantic.  There is no threat to the U.S.

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- 40+ knots over parts of the Gulf of Mexico... 30-40+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 30+ knots over parts of the Central Atlantic.  

Tropical waves are far less prominent moving west off Africa. In fact, given the satellite imagery + long range forecast models, one has to wonder if the Cape Verde season is essentially over(?!).

Something to keep an eye on later this week into the following week will be the SW Atlantic, Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico as a strong surface high pressure is forecast to move into the NE U.S. & N. Atlantic.  Such a set-up in the fall causes lower pressure to naturally develop to the south that can sometimes lead to tropical development. Indeed....some forecast models are pointing to eventual tropical development but are -- no surprise this far in advance -- inconsistent on the details.  It looks like there may be 2 distinct areas of development:

(1) east of the Bahamas that will then move northeast into the Central Atlantic

(2) the Gulf of Mexico with a slow move northeast

The GFS has generally shown weak development with the Gulf disturbance but has occasionally shown at least a closed circulation while at other times maintaining an open wave or trough of low pressure.  The European model has generally been a little farther west but is also no particularly strong. 

In either looks like there will be an increasing potential for heavy rain for the First Coast late in the weekend into early next week. Exact details this far our are -- of course -- difficult to pin down, but I suspect there will be at least one named storm, possibly two that will form.  Period of greatest concern appears to be between Sept. 20th & 30th.

And we might already see the systems on the "playing field" when looking at satellite imagery. Note the cluster of disorganized t'storms near the Bahamas (could become the system that moves northeast into the Central Atlantic)....+ a large area of "disturbed" weather over the NW Caribbean.

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