Stormy Western Gulf... Upper Trough East of Bahamas... Early Season Cape Verde Style Wave... Hurricane "Erick" Just Off Pacific Mexican Coast
Thunderstorms remain active across the Western Gulf but with no organization. This pattern will persist but no surface development is evident nor is expected with plenty of shear in the vicinity & a move over land by Sunday. Plenty of heavy rain for the Western Gulf Coast & Mexican Gulf Coast.
The TUTT low that I've been posting about the last few days -- & as indicated by forecast models -- is very evident to the east of the Bahamas with convection flaring in its vicinity. While models continue to show no surface development, this is a feature to watch closely as it barrels to the west.
This upper level disturbance (TUTT) became pinched off from a strong upper level trough over the Central Atlantic. The parent trough has lifted quickly to the north & east while the feature left behind will now accelerate to the west underneath (or south of) a strong upper level & surface high pressure over the Central & Western Atlantic. This so-called TUTT - tropical upper tropospheric trough - has a cold core now & will move to the west reaching Fl. about Tue. By this time, the upper trough looks like it's core temp. will be more neutral. In any case....surface development is not indicated by forecast models & is not likely to occur as the system will be fast moving & in a pretty high shear environment. Subsidence on the west side of the TUTT will limit thunderstorms over the First Coast -- & much of Fl. -- Sun.-Mon. But on the east side of the trough, the air will be more unstable accompanied by an increase in vertical velocities (lift) & upper level diffluence which should increase t'storms Tue. night-Wed. across the local area & much of Fl. Penn State's College of Earth & Mineral Sciences offers a very detailed discussion of TUTT's - click ** here
A strong Cape Verde style tropical wave - early in the season but not unheard of-has moved off the African Coast & is zipping west at a pretty low latitude. Forecast models are not at all enthusiastic about this wave - possibly because of a great deal of dry mid & upper level air ahead (east) of the expected track (note the water vapor image above)+ shear that looks to persist for the foreseeable future. It's possible the wave will develop in the long term - 6-10 days - once in or near the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico. The models are also in agreement on strong high pressure holding its dominance over the N. Atlantic which will steer the wave more west (vs. NW). This is a wave to wary eye on over the next week +.
In the E. Pacific, "Dalila" is quickly fading well to the S/SW of the Baja but "Erick" is strengthening just off the coast of Mexico south of Acapulco & is a hurricane. "Erick" will bring heavy rain, gusty winds & dangerous sea/surf to Acapulco & coastal Mexico to the south while staying just offshore. A building upper level ridge of high pressure should start to push "Erick" more to the west -- away from Mexico -- by Mon.