"Sandy" Making Move North & Strengthening; Tropical Depression #19 in Central Atlantic Soon to Merge With Frontal Boundary......
Hurricane WARNING for Jamaica & Parts of Eastern/Central Cuba...Tropical Storm WARNING for Haiti... Tropical Storm WATCH Central/Southern Bahamas......Tropical Storm Watch Possible for Parts of Keys & Far SE Fl. by Wed.....
"Sandy" is organizing & strengthening with the only question in the short term being how strong will the storm become & will there be rapid intensification given a very favorable environment. Strong upper level troughing looks like it'll remain in place -- in one form another -- over the Eastern U.S. which should protect the Southeast U.S. from the storm but such will ultimately depend on the exact orientation & intensity of the trough. The GFS model shows a fairly sharp turn to the east/northeast once into the Bahamas this weekend. The European model on the other hand has maintained a much sharper northward move just of the U.S. east coast plowing into New England next week as an intense hybrid storm. Either way...impacts on the First Coast will be virtually the same as I anticipate a center well to the east of Jacksonville Saturday.
Torrential rain, rough seas & surf & damaging winds will affect Jamaica Wed. as well as parts of Cuba & Hispaniola later this week then the Bahamas by late week. "Sandy" will move north/northeast & undergo increasing shear by the weekend as it moves into the W. Atlantic east of Fl. The combination of the shear + interaction with an upper level trough & possible frontal system could give the tropical cyclone a more subtropical structure late in the weekend/early next week. Any cruises this week to the Caribbean might have to be rerouted but will still get out of port, just a matter of where the cruise will exactly be able to go.
FOR THE FIRST COAST.....it would appear directly effects will be relegated to a stiff east/northeast wind later Thu.-Fri.-Sat.-Sun., rough seas & surf & a high rip current risk & possibly some beach erosion -- all, of course, dependent on the exact location & intensity of "Sandy".
Tropical depression #19 over the Central Atlantic 500+ miles east of the Bahamas but has already made the turn north/northeast. Notice in the satellite photos the approaching band of clouds which is a cold front. This front will eventually absorb this low -- & along with increasing shear -- should move t.d. #19 quite sharply east/northeast & accelerate far to the east of the U.S. over the open Atlantic followed by a more northeast turn early next week as a post-tropical low.
